[threenaps]

<br>With regard to Horatio Nelson, if you look at all his races<br>as a 2 year old (and I know most of us think he should have won the Dewhurst but he didn’t),none of the horses that have come behind him in those races have achieved much as 3 year olds in the top races so far.<br>Taking this into account and his 8th in the Guineas should he really be 2nd favourite for the Derby at a best price 5/1?

I see that Ladbrokes who I’m often told know whats what at Ballydoyle, have Horatio Nelson at 5/1 a higher price than most of the others on Oddscheckers, they must be quite happy to take money on him.

 

[threenaps]

<br>If its any help to you I read somewhere that horses with large feet will handle soft and heavy going better than those with smaller feet,something to do with what happens when the foot hits the ground and goes in.

[threenaps]

<br>I’m definately leaning towards Septimus, by Sadlers Wells out of a Darshaan mare. <br>He should like York just like Islington did and Epsom just like High Chaperral did.Hopefully a galloping colt for galloping tracks.We’ll see on Thursday.<br>Linda’s Lad might be better at further,by Sadlers Wells out of an Alleged mare, like Brian Boru perhaps.

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Refuse to Bends Damsire is Gulch an 6-8f American Group 1 winner who brings speed to the breeding down from Mr P, Raise a Native, and Native Dancer. <br>Maybe that limited Refuse to Bend to 10f. <br>Maybe Olympian Oddyssey will be like this and not get 12f at Group 1 but without an Epsom Derby  how would we know ?<br>

(Edited by threenaps at 7:26 am on May 11, 2006)

[threenaps]

<br>They might get a bit more interested in Montjeu’s if Papal Bull wins well tommorrow.

Maybe the future is more Americanised, 8-10f being all important, but I hope not.

[threenaps]

<br>I have Flashy Wings 20/1<br>           Race for the Stars 12/1<br>           Speciosa 20/1<br>           Donna Blini 20/1

          I’m hopeful. As it says above it will be interesting to see where Speciosa runs.

         

[threenaps]

<br>Yes I like Flashy Wings, on the positive side Mick Channon did train the only one of Zafonics offspring to win an English Group 1 at 8f in the last 6 years, Zafeen 2nd in the 2000 Guineas and 1st in the St James Palace….hopefully she’ll be there on Sunday.<br>  

[threenaps]

Donna Blini has Lyphard in her Damsire line.<br>Wince had Lyphard as her Damsire and won the 1000 Guineas.<br>Lyphard won a Group 1 at 8f in France and was also the Sire of Dancing Brave so I would think Donna Blini ought to have enough stamina for the mile. <br>Bertolini for speed and Lyphard for enough stamina for the mile and Mick Kinane, it augers well.

Also Lyphard is in the Damsire lines of Valixer 8f G1 winner,Indian Haven 8f G1 winner and Casual Look Oaks winner.<br>

(Edited by threenaps at 9:57 pm on April 30, 2006)

[threenaps]

<br>just about broke even having had a saver on Killybegs as well as the patent in the earlier post, but I have 66/1 antepost on Olympian Odyssey for the Derby so it wasn’t all bad yesterday.

I wonder what Barry Hills had to say to Mr Spencer after the Feilden Stakes ?

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<br>Newmarket:<br>3:10 City of Troy<br>3:45 Olympian Odyssey<br>4:55 Papal Bull

to win 7 bet patent.

[threenaps]

At what point would online and high street bookmakers<br>close your accounts or refuse to do business with you?

I assume that some punters must reach the stage where they can only use betfair or go to the betting ring.  <br>

(Edited by threenaps at 9:11 am on Mar. 26, 2006)

[threenaps]

<br>And remember the old saying:

"There are lies,damned lies, and statistics"…..and then there is horseracing.

[threenaps]

<br>here’s another mathematical formula for you to have a look at.

http://www.highflyer.supanet.com/coefficient.htm

and also this site about female families

http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/ … mbers.html

Over the years their must be quite a few people who have tried to quantify the qualifiable in order that formulas can be invented so that mathematical comparisons can be made,its what statisticians do.

 

[threenaps]

<br>Also see http://www.pedigreequery.com for figures for individual horses.

[threenaps]

<br>Tuesday down<br>Wednesday back to breakeven<br>Thursday up<br>Friday up again

wins:<br>Brave Inca<br>Star De Mohaison<br>Fondmort<br>My Way de Solzen<br>War of Attrition<br>

[threenaps]

<br>Alamgyir  by Kalanisi out of Aliyda, half brother to Alamshar<br>with John Oxx unraced holds an Irish derby entry

Papal Bull by Montjeu out of a Zafonic mare<br>with Sir Micheal Stoute<br>won a leicester maiden has a derby entry

[threenaps]

<br>Maybe this year the antepost favourite might win.<br>However brilliance at 2 yrs old doesn’t always mean classic winner in May at 3 yrs old.<br>George Washington and Sir Percy might not train on as so many haven’t before.<br>be wary.

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