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Won very cosily today Soumillon never lifted his stick was a hands and heels ride and probably does deserve to be fav for the derby but the price is still a bit on the skimpy side.
I got a good look at him on the big screen at Ladbrokes.
On physique, I’d say he’ll be better over 12.
We’ll see how good he is when he actually comes up against some opposition, but I don’t think he’ll be a Dalakhani.
Steve
Still think quotes of 2/1 are a joke, I’ve laid him some more- how short do people think he’ll be on the day, for God’s sake?
Impressive enough but has beaten absolutely nothing of note and is one of the worst big-race favourites for a number of years.
He won’t start shorter than 11/4 on the day. People will be queuing up to lay him.
DJ what will beat it?
Hala Bek -doubtful<br>Sir Percy -doubtful<br>Nakheel -injured<br>Horatio Nelson -unfit and ran badly<br>Heliostatic -tailed off last time<br>Olmpian Odessy -currently drifting
Horatio Nelson makes plenty of appeal at twice the price of Visindar. Connections made it quite clear he needed the race in the Guineas. Apparently a lazy sort, a race like that should have done his fitness the world of good. His Dewhurst form is also about 10 lb better than what Visindar has done.
The Dante will throw up a contender. Palace Episode is a Group 1 winner of a race that has thrown up recent Derby winners whilst it looks as though O’Brien hasn’t lost faith with Septimus. Dylan Thomas also won well enough at the weekend to allow him to be taled of as a contender.
Linda’s Lad showed a good attitude at the weekend and shouldn’e be underestimated as a second string. Championship Point was a very easy winner of the Predominante at Goodwood. There’s plenty of horses that are unexposed and should improve at Epsom to make me not want to go anywhere near Visindar at 5/2.
I think Visindar isnt good value and I think Horatio Nelson is stink value. Yes, I know O Briens will improve for the run but we are taking a lot on trust with HN. For me, he didnt run any sort of race in the guineas. I just think perhaps some of his stablemates should be shorter.<br>
SHL
Are we having to take on trust with Horatio Nelson any more than with other contenders? The difference being that Horatio Nelson has shown form within 5lb or so that will probably be good enough to win the Derby with the promise of more to come over further. I’m not suggesting he’s a good thing or that he himself is sure to stay, merely that the presence of him and others make 5/2 a terrible price.
it looks as though O’Brien hasn’t lost faith with Septimus
I hope he runs in the Dante. I think he could be the one.
Visindar deserves to be the favourite, but the odds look very short.
It’s still a few weeks, so he might not turn up.
He looked quite long-backed/long-striding to me so might not be suited to Epsom. Today he came from behind but needed a while to really get going which could be a problem in the Derby.
I’m going off HN, there have been a number of negative comments about his physique from Newmarket which suggest that he hasn’t trained on.
(however, I couldn’t tell from TV, so I’m not sure how valid these comments are)
Steve
Just back from St-Cloud. Impressive looking win by Visindar. I’m still not totally convinced but a little more so now than before. Soumillon had to work a bit more than in the previous run but that was a Conditions whereas this was a Group 2. Moonmix laid down quite a pace as he was supposed to and the one horse in the race that I thought might spring a surprise, Bremen, had nothing when asked 3f out. Hello Sunday and Onerous were closing at the finish but by then Soumillon had eased down. HS was last in the Noailles last month and Onerous is a bit of a mystery, coming from the South West where he has run all his previous races. So he still hasn’t beaten much, especially if Bremen, who had finished 2nd, caught on the line, to the fast-finishing Gentlewave in the Noailles, had an off-day.
As for Epsom, I think we can be a little more confident but the prices I’ve seen on this thread are ridiculous. As I said way back in this thread, St-Cloud is no Epsom.
(Edited by Longchamp Lad at 4:26 pm on May 15, 2006)
Open looking race and quite a few possibilities. I liked the look of Ch. Point but he has plenty still to prove. I have a sneaky feeling that the Lingfield trial may work out well and that Linda’s Lad is being brought along patiently by a master trainer. The colt was carrying a GR 1 penalty at Lingfield and I think it is very significant that Fabre is directing him to Epsom despite having the favourite in the race, a race he hasn’t been over-enthusiastic about having runners in the past. <br>The ground is the worry with him- if it is firm at Epsom you wouldn’t think he’d be at his best.<br>Dylan Thomas is the other interesting contender for me at current prices.
Yeah, Linda’s Lad is one I like quite a bit as well.
I’d forget Ch Point. Very poor Predominant Stakes this year, and the record of winners from it in the Derby is dire. However, the push back in the calendar may help it somewhat.
O’Brien has Septimus and Horatio Nelson, who I think are both far better than Dylan Thomas.
I’m sticking with Horatio, and very happy to lay Visindar.
Sorry, forgot to say. People are talking about trusting O’Brien. He is one of maybe 3 or 4 trainers I will trust based on what has been said.
(Edited by jackane24 at 4:53 pm on May 15, 2006)
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