April 18, 2006 at 02:53 #71457FlatSeasonLoverParticipant
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What has the horse achieved that a horse like Nakheel hasn’t to earn it favourtism?April 18, 2006 at 06:20 #71458prince regentMember
- Total Posts 221
<br>hamilton and pontefract are not the normal routes to classic glory and nakheel apparantly is under a cloud at present
fabre has been quoted a saying a few will run in the uk this season not as he likes england but in search of better groundApril 18, 2006 at 07:44 #71459davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
I guess he’s shown he’s fit and well. Nakheel disappointed in his last piece of work and now won’t be galloping at Newmarket this week. Considering the general form on Johnston’s horses there has to be a doubt about him getting to the Guineas or doing himself justice if he does.April 18, 2006 at 08:44 #71460
I certainly wouldnt take the 5-1 on offer now. He looked good (although he had to really) and is clearly well regarded, but 5-1 ????
Not even confirmed taht hes going thereApril 18, 2006 at 09:04 #71461
Spot on griff.
Quote from LGR:<br>Visindar is a half-brother to Visorhill (close 5th in a 1m 4f Grade 2 Handicap at Sha Tin, and a staying on 2nd over a soft 1m 2f in France), Visorama (Group 1 placed over 1m 4f and unlucky not to have gone closer) and Visionnaire (placed in the Italian Oaks and a strong finishing 4th in a Group 3 event over 1m 2f at Deauville).
Visorhill has been doing all his winning in Hong Kong over 7 and 9 furlongs, being dropped back in trip after two unsuccessful attempts over 12f (as well as a ‘close’ 5th he was also beaten 9 and half lengths into 10th in the Hong Kong Champions & Chater Cup).
Visorama’s record over 12f is 3rd, 7th and 7th – all her wins have been over shorter.
Visionnaire was placed in the French, not Italian, Oaks – the best part of a furlong less – and was then dropped back in trip again after proving she did not see out 10f+.
<br>Venusian was absolutely right that the dam’s side would suggest 10f to be his max trip. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I suppose that this will be the acid test of just how much a staying influence Sinndar is as a sire.April 19, 2006 at 10:51 #71462
You can’t really trust these ‘big baby’ types a lot of the time, unless they really are special.
I didn’t back Gypsy King last year cos I didn’t think he had enough experience, and that turned out to be right.
I know Visindar has another date before the Derby, but he has beaten absolutely nothing, and a win at 1/3 prompting markets to fall over the place going from 10/1 into 5/1??? That’s absolutely crazy. Even if the Derby is looking less than vintage.April 19, 2006 at 14:50 #71463
"not seen anything else yet"
Its a bit early, wouldnt you say???April 20, 2006 at 08:04 #71464davidbradyMember
- Total Posts 3901
Ten of the last twelve Derby winners have WON (not placed or just run) either
1. Derrinstown<br>2. Dante<br>3. Dee Stakes<br>4. Lingfield Trial
The 2 that didn’t win either of them didn’t run as a 3yo before the big day. I wouldn’t be backing anything until I see how the trials go.April 20, 2006 at 10:32 #71465
Motivator, North Light, Benny The Dip, Erhaab and Commander In Chief all won the Dante.
Galileo, High Chapparal and Sinndar all won the Derrinstown.
Oath and Kris Kin won the Dee Stakes, and High Rise won the Lingfield Derby Trial.
The Dee Stakes and Lingfield Derby trials could also be discounted in some respect, as only 3 Derby winners of the last 14 won them. The Dante and Derrinstown are the ones to watch out for.
Just racking my brain (and checking on the web!!) trying to think of any Guineas runners doing well in the Derby, I can think of Hawk Wing obv. 2nd in both, Norse Dancer was 3rd and 4th, Dubawi 5th and 3rd, Snow Ridge 2nd and 7th, Golan won the 2000 and was 2nd in the Derby, Beat Hollow won the Guineas and was 3rd in the Derby.
So it is not uncommon for it to happen, although admittedly it doesn’t happen often. As a backer of Horatio, and soon to be a bigger backer, the only race I want him to run in is the Derrinstown. I’m glad that he’s not running in the Ballysax, as he’s already had quite a few runs as a 2yo, and you don’t want the big fella burned out by the day.April 20, 2006 at 11:07 #71466
Jackane, when you’re checking on the RP site for form, hover over the date to bring up the race name.
Commander in Chief won the Glasgow Stakes, not the Dante, and Beat Hollow won the Newmarket Stakes, not the 2000 Guineas.
The ‘conditions’ bit, where it says L rather than G1 is a clue too.April 20, 2006 at 11:14 #71467cormack15Keymaster
- Total Posts 8820
Derby winners, as a general rule, are proven over at least ten furlongs. So, the advice is not to back them until they have done just that, proved themselves.
Forget about pedigree conjecture. It’s what they do on the racecourse, not on a piece of paper, that counts.April 20, 2006 at 11:19 #71468
Miss out on the value that way, corm!April 20, 2006 at 11:19 #71469
I thought that Commander In Chief won the race which is now known as the Dante, because I checked over it and it said Glasgow Stakes Class C, but it was over 10f, so I presumed they upped it status.
And as for Beat Hollow – no excuses!! :biggrin:April 20, 2006 at 11:32 #71470cormack15Keymaster
- Total Posts 8820
Quite, Sal.<br>April 20, 2006 at 12:04 #71471
U want to see them prove the distance, but never dismiss the breeding.
My feeling is that that has proved to be an accurate guide more often than not
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