March 24, 2006 at 00:44 #2579FlatSeasonLoverMember
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I was reading a Japanese article about breeding of some of the most famous horses and the author splits the breeding characteristics passed down into 5 categorys: Brilliant (speed), Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional (stamina). Basically the jist of the argument was that horses like Rakti and other "classic" winners all show a breeding tendency towards the classic characteristics being passed down, hence the term dominant classicity.
My questions that arise from this is how can these features be measured and what exactly are "classic" features and therefore how do we know which horses have dominant classicity (16%). I was hoping someone on the forum would have knowledge of such matters.March 24, 2006 at 01:31 #70667LetsGetRacingMember
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This all relates to Dosage, FSL. The website below should help…March 24, 2006 at 12:33 #70668
<br>Also see http://www.pedigreequery.com for figures for individual horses.March 24, 2006 at 16:12 #70673VenusianParticipant
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Flatseasonlover, you are right to be puzzled!
Dosage theory seeks to predict/explain a horse’s stamina by reference to so-called chefs-de-race, influential stallions who pass down their stamina attributes to subsequent generations. Therefore, by identifying these stallions in a pedigree, and taking into account how far back they are, it is possible to predict, with reasonable accuracy, a horse’s optimum trip.
Sounds pretty good, eh?
Trouble is, the theory’s completely barmy, and here’s why:
1) You might well ask how a stallion is identified as having, for example, "dominant classicity". Well, the answer is quite simple: It’s because the theory’s inventor, Dr Steve Roman, says so. He alone decides what stallions shall be "chefs", and into which category or categories they shall placed.
2) The theory takes no notice of a mare’s input into a pedigree, except as a conduits to pass on the attributes of the chefs in her pedigree. This is straightforward baloney, ask any geneticist. This is why dosage totally failed to identify the stamina attributes of horses like Three Valleys, Mr Dinos or Damson, attributes which intelligent application of what might be termed "traditional pedigree analysis" were fairly easy to predict.
3) Very recent research has indicated that some influences regarding stamina may inherited via a horse’s mitochondrial DNA, ie that DNA which is only passed down the tail female line, Dosage theory takes no notice of this whatsoever.
4) Aside from mitochondrial DNA, omitting the mare’s input, apart from being genetic nonsense, ignores the exceptional prepotency of the greatest broodmares. As there have always been far more mares at stud than stallions, it’s reasonable to assume that the most prepotent mares will be more prepotent than the most influential of stallions.
5) On the stallion side, there is a tendency for the theory to assume too much consistency, forgetting that each generation is a completely new shake of the dice.
6) The theory ignores those genes, which geneticists have only recently begun to start to understand, which "switch on" or "switch off" certain heritable characteristics between generations, jumping a generation, if you like.
Sorry to bang on about this, but I find it frustrating that there are so many fanciful breeding theories about, and that so many people are taken in by them.<br>
(Edited by Venusian at 9:17 pm on Mar. 24, 2006)March 24, 2006 at 20:06 #70675guskennedyMember
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Tony Morris demolished the Dosage Theory in his Q&A thread which can still be read on here. Dosage is absolute tripe.March 25, 2006 at 10:22 #70676
<br>here’s another mathematical formula for you to have a look at.
and also this site about female families
Over the years their must be quite a few people who have tried to quantify the qualifiable in order that formulas can be invented so that mathematical comparisons can be made,its what statisticians do.March 25, 2006 at 10:33 #70677
<br>And remember the old saying:
"There are lies,damned lies, and statistics"…..and then there is horseracing.
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