May 28, 2006 at 22:13 #2729Irish StampMember
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Sire stats IMHO help alot EC, particularly in regard to things like ground/horse, sire’s progeny on a surface, soundness etc.
An example is FuPeg, I’ve thought this for a while and I’m sure someone will come and disagree with me but I really don’t like his progeny running on turf, there are a number of high profile examples of this – In Excelsis, Scandinavia, Race For the Stars etc in Europe, they seem to run a really nice debut race and then when you up them in class they freeze.
It’s just something I’ve picked up on and I know he can sire more than useful turf performers but as an all-round sire of top class turf animals he’s not for me, particularly on soft ground.May 29, 2006 at 09:43 #72443clivexMember
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Something that has interested me and wish there was more easy access to this type of information
It makes sense…
Im a long way from being a breeding expert but surely ability to handle going is largely down to the physical make up and this is whats passed down…
Sadlers wells being a prime example of producing horses that like give…
If anyone can point me in direction of useful database for this…would be apprecaitedMay 29, 2006 at 11:05 #72444dandanMember
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http://www.flatstats.co.uk might be of some help, but its a pay site and can be extremely complicated although thorough. A list of sires with stats would be very helpful in my opinion.May 29, 2006 at 11:09 #72445
Progeny stats are useful, but using them on lightly raced horses is risky.
If you’ve got time, look at the other progeny in detail via distance raced, price, stable profile, finishing position, race typeMay 29, 2006 at 11:13 #72446threenapsParticipant
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<br>If its any help to you I read somewhere that horses with large feet will handle soft and heavy going better than those with smaller feet,something to do with what happens when the foot hits the ground and goes in.May 29, 2006 at 11:19 #72447Irish StampMember
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Those with a more rounded action are likely to go better on soft ground rather than those with a low smooth action who are likely to appreciated good or firmer ground, or so I’m led to believe.May 29, 2006 at 12:18 #72448
Looking at Sire/Dam progeny there is a big question mark about Don Pietro getting home over this trip on soft or slowerMay 29, 2006 at 12:47 #72449
Just using Sire/Dam race is between Forrager, Power Broker and possibly Ravish, if you then include trainer profile then Power Broker looks the one to be on<br>May 29, 2006 at 13:18 #72450
Quote: from empty wallet on 12:09 pm on May 29, 2006[br]
using them on lightly raced horses is risky.
enuff said imoMay 29, 2006 at 13:32 #72451
it’s information you can’t ignore when you have nothing much else to go on. i’ll look at the sire and dam going form as well as siblings but as already said, it’s never enough in risky races where there is no real form to go with. for me, looking at sire form preference for this sort of race would be like desperately trying to find a reason to lay or play in a race that should be avoided, unless one knows differently.May 29, 2006 at 13:52 #72452
Quote: from EC on 2:31 pm on May 29, 2006[br]
As you say EW..one goes wrong..best not pursue this..must be a poor way I reckon.:o
Where have i said it’s not an avenue to investigate?
<br>As said, it’s risky on lightly raced horses, some, in fact a few, will go on ground that progeny stats say, they maybe shouldn’t, but when they run on it later don’t seem to handle it, this is because of the make up of the race.
This race looked to fall into the hands of DP for various reasons(Power Broker pulling, Forrager is a tad unreliable etc) and i would be willing to take it on under the same conditions in the right raceMay 29, 2006 at 14:00 #72453
definitely not a silly idea. it is good information but probably just not very useful for such an iffy race. if i’m looking for big priced unraceds in maidens i’ll be encouraged if sire/dam/siblings have gone on the ground before and i like to use this when needing to pass the time between punting races.
a better example would be the 4.20 at leicester – will granny peel go on the ground ? whilst it’s sire redback (who’s having a fair start with it’s 2yos) had all it’s wins on good going or better, it didn’t ‘not’ perform on softer going. it’s dam bacchanalia also won her only race on soft ground. granny peels only previous run on g-s (probably more good) can be ignored for the shenanigans and while i think wolves polytrack is slower than lingfield and therefore slower than g-f, the horse ain’t got reliable form on the soft – so the sire and dam’s performances on soft gives me some encouragement as i already had granny peel down as the winner.
where’s your lays gone ? – put em in the lays and plays section as i find it good to read opinions on races i haven’t looked. i might not always agree with em but this is what this forum is for, isn’t it ?May 29, 2006 at 14:11 #72454
i’m beginning to think you may be a member of flat stats or some such other thing ;) either that or you have created the db to end dbs
the imperialistic race was crossed off my list of playing races as soon as i saw it – couldn’t back it and won’t lay it – don’t like coin-toss racesMay 29, 2006 at 14:15 #72455
i generally draw the line at sire/dam – i understand the saying you can’t have too much information but i don’t have too much time or the desire to force myself into playing with stuff i consider marginal and wonder about the relevance of going too far back sometimes. they say stats never lie but where i come from you can make stats say whatever you want to, too ;)May 29, 2006 at 14:15 #72456SmithyMember
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Quote: from EC on 3:04 pm on May 29, 2006[br]I’ll have a look at Granny, Simon
In the 3.10..Imperialistic at Leicester..when stock of Imperial Ballet get turned out within 7 days..they do poorly when fav or 2nd fav..worth taking on at odds on..<br>
Presumably you need to enhance the database to include in-foal progeny of Imperial Ballet running within 7 days of a win (on a Monday) ;)
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