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Even the trainer of Telescope, Sir Stoutey earlier in the season after the horse won at Newbury, referred to him as a group one and a half horse.
Throw in the fact that he’s been beaten as favourite several times I just can’t have him.
The way Golden Horn won on saturday, he outstayed them. The stiff finish at Ascot always takes some getting so I can see him winning the King George in similar fashion. Also he shouldn’t have to make the running this time, something which surely wouldn’t have suited the horse.
Snow Sky the obvious danger.
Muhaarar blew apart a race that was seen as so competitive beforehand that it was billed as perhaps the one most anticipated at the entire royal ascot meeting.
However he ran so hard and quick there he must have had a hard race. I’m wary of the “bounce” factor so whereas under normal circumstances I’d fancy him to take care of Brazen Beau and the rest, for this race I’d prefer to leave him alone.
Some horse that. Won the race through class and stamina.
All roads open to him now, the Arc, the breeders cup, although he might well be retired at the end of the season.
Disappointing effort from Brooch today, her limitations seemed well exposed there. Legatissimo isn’t having much luck but continues to run well. That’s a narrow win and two narrow defeats now.
These three year old fillies are all winning by small margins and you feel it could be like playing bingo with a different result possible every time they line up. No sign of a Golden Horn, Gleneagles or Jack Hobbs lurking in the division.
True but isn’t that generally the case? Most years the three year old colts tend to be someway ahead of the fillies. And perhaps they are playing bingo with each other but they still managed to beat the older fillies in that race, which as you pointed out beforehand doesn’t happen very often.
Poor from Forgotten rules in the curragh cup, thought I’d give him one last chance but you called it right he’d struggle to give weight to some of the others.
With the benefit of hindsight it’s perhaps surprising that Weld gave him another chance on quickish ground so soon after the Gold cup, as his reputation has now taken a bit of a battering in his last two runs. Very un Weld like you’d have to say.
Put him away for Autumn with french/ascot runs on the agenda on deep ground, as he ran there like he was absolutely hating the quick going.
Managed to trade out of my Lieutenant General bet in running. traded as low as 1.12 in play although I put lays up at 3.2 and 2.2 in running. The winner seems like a real brute.
That was a real barging match in the final furlong and wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a stewards.
Shogun might well be the one but he’s already very short for one who’s never seen a racetrack, so I’ve had a very small interest in Lieutenant colonel. Was in the entries for the Railway stakes earlier in the week which suggests he may also be well thought of.
I must admit though when Moore is on one of Obrien’s the second or third strings seem to win far less often than they did when Joseph was on the first choice. That’s probably because Moore is by far the best jockey they can call upon so they make sure they put him on the best horse.
Also backed Most beautiful in the six furlong fillies race and Brooch in the Pretty Polly. Forgotten Rules also. Legatissimo seems rather short in the big race considering the Oaks form was hardly franked by Qualify yesterday and Brooch is just the sort of tenderly campaigned filly that big race trainer Dermot Weld does well with.
5-1 just seems too big about an unbeaten Weld animal although there are dangers everywhere, Pleascach for example should do well back at the Curragh at a distance much more suitable than she was beaten at last time. Did have a hard race though.
Well that was disappointing.
Don’t seem to have learnt my lesson from the Norfolk stakes where another relatively unfancied OBrien runner in the market hosed up.
I suppose it was ominous given his record in this race that from originally having a multitude of entries he relied on only this one.
In future I’ll probably just back Moore/Obrien blind if they are available at those sort of odds. Pointless over analysing it.
Starting to look ominous for Jack Hobbs as well and almost tempted to flip over to Highland Reel.
Looking at the colours I thought he was running for Godolphin!
But yeah the way he burst through them was highly impressive. A colt with a serious future for sure.
Antelope Canyon? Should be renamed Donkey Canyon.
That’s the problem with trying to second guess O’Brien.
Anyway on the positive side that’s a good boost for the stable with Rockaway Valley later in the day.
That looked seriously impressive from Alice Springs. I would strongly suggest taking 25/1 if you can still get on. She looks a Guineas winner in waiting to my eyes. The physical scope is there and she learned a good bit tonight the way the race panned out and she’s destined for big things.
Yes she looked impressive. I would also say she’s got a lot more potential to make up into a guineas filly than anything else I’ve seen so far this season. Also looks a stocky and well made filly which would not be your typical O’Brien filly. More like your Serena Williams/Mike Tyson/Giant’s Causeway type of horse that you always want on your side in a battle.
The problem with assessing Coolmore runners though is that as a punter you’ll always be miles behind what they actually know about them at home in Ballydoyle.
O’brien sectional times them at home. He knows how good they are compared to one another, but as a punter you are pretty much in the dark a lot of the time in terms of how good their runners are.
For example Qualify, the filly that runs in the Irish derby. Where there any noises coming out of Ballydoyle before the race that 50-1 far underestimated her chance?
Of course not. And whereas O’Brien is hardly responsible for the odds, if you are a punter and you are presented with her last two runs, 10th of 18 in the Irish 1000 guineas and last of 13 in the English equivalent, then you put a line through her. Wrongly as it happens.
It beggars belief that O’Brien wouldn’t have had an idea that she’d have been a great bet at 50-1, but did he let the general public know about it? That’s what leaves a rather sour taste in the mouth.
There are other recent examples at Royal Ascot like Waterloo Bridge, who hardly had the profile of a typical Norfolk stakes winner, and War Envoy.
I often think with Coolmore you should do the opposite to what they are achieving on the track, or at least take their form with a hefty pinch of salt. The money speaks louder than words.
Take this Antelope Canyon later on in the 3.00 at Curragh. It’s first public outing was desperate, it finished last of seven runners.It was priced up at 6-1 on the tissue in the racing post, now it’s being backed into favouritism.
I’ve actually backed the thing, but that’s only on what I know about Coolmore and how their runners are so capable of finding huge improvement from one run to the next.
I just wish they were more open with the public about when this improvement was forthcoming, it might make our job easier.
Incidentally going back to your Alice Springs horse Steve there’s a similar type of filly running in the 2.50 at Newmarket, the Empress stakes called threebagssue. I think she might outrun her odds of 25-1.
Yes Hannon junior didn’t sound that confident. Seemed to imply that sending him here was something of a fingers crossed job but it’s clearly a good opportunity to win a group two as this don’t look to be as competitive as a two year old group race at the Newmarket July meeting or glorious Goodwood for example.
A shade of odds on though to my eyes offers no value whatsoever.
I guess a lot depends on how good the opposition is but I’ve been impressed with Rockaway valley so far and have backed him to continue his progress. He scorched over the final two furlongs last time on my rough sectional timings and if he does the same tomorrow I think he’ll be pretty hard to beat.
The horse did look seriously impressive and looks to have huge potential. Air Force blue could well be a top horse over 7f/mile.
I think Air force blue on his pedigree might struggle to get a mile, but even if he doesn’t he’s clearly got tremendous scope for improvement.
Interesting that the hannons are running log out island so soon after the norfolk. The only thing to infer is that he must be bouncing at home.
He got chinned on the line by Waterloo Bridge at Ascot but looks to me like a horse who will appreciate the step up to six furlongs as his sire dark angel recorded all his best performances over that distance. The third horse home that day, king of rooks was strongly touted beforehand, came up to log out island at the two furlong pole seemingly going much the better, but log out island fought back and could only not cope with the strong finish of the winner.
And anything that the Hannon’s run in Ireland has to be respected as they have a good record in two year old races in that country.
My only concern with Rockaway Valley is will he bounce after that fast run last time? I guess we’ll find out.
Throw in Painted Cliffs (cliffs, Island, Valley, I think you have the beginnings of a country
) and Argentero (that is a country almost ) and you have a very interesting race.Take out the Obrien/Moore element, just compare the horse flesh and Jack Hobbs should be 1-3
Those guys are good but not miracle workers. He’s close to evs now which is manna from heaven.
Agree that Due Diligence seems huge at 10-1- given the dominance of Moore-Obrien at this meeting so far, I’m surprised bookies haven’t shorted him up to around the 3-1 shot. Might still have a few pounds to find with the others but form seems irrevelant when it comes to Coolmore.
I would have fancied him anyway without what we’ve seen this meeting with the form of Ryan and everything, as he went very well last year from what I thought was a tough draw.
Also seems like the type of horse to come forward as a four year old.
Poor old Joseph must now feel painfully inadequate by way or Comparison to Ryan- he seemed to struggle as first jockey to Coolmore whereas Moore is just unstoppable.
Best Jockey plus best trainer plus best horses = dominance in the big meetings it would seem.
I just wonder whether people think that these Obrien/Moore horses should be much shorter in betting in future in the big meetings- whether the market will correct itself to this mounting dominance- or will people just go on form?
The reason I ask is because Waterloo bridge and War envoy for example both hardly stood out on form, both were sent off at double figures, but should the market be overcompensating for the unstoppable Obrien/Moore factor?
) and Argentero (that is a country almost