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I really like the way Lady Of Dubai won her listed race, okay it wasn’t a strong race, but the cruising speed she showed looked like it would hold up at the highest level for me.
Adam Kirby said that she only needed a flick of the switch and the race was done, no fuss.
Very relaxed style of running which will suit Epsom and no stamina concerns, she just needs to prove that she has class.Adam Kirby for a group 1 classic would be great stuff.
I think her win at Goodwood might have been visually impressive but lacked substance.
I’m not speed ratings expert by any stretch of the imagination but I roughly hand-timed the last stage of Lady of Dubai’s win at Goodwood, she actually ran the finish slower than a maiden winner did later in the same card. Both coming off a slow pace, the maiden winner had to run all the way to the line while Lady of Dubai could coast the final furlong, but still it points to her being a listed/group three filly at best.
My feeling is it’s a big step up for her today and she won’t be quite good enough. In fact increasingly I’m thinking of lumping big on this Legatissimo, already won a classic while the others have to improve a great deal to get close to her.
The only thing against her really is this bad draw in stall one.
Now that my main fancy, Zawraq , has been declared a non-runner –
and still of the opinion that Golden Horn won’t stay ( ala Tenby ) , I turn to my reserve choice ,
Jack Hobbs – a horse who is still improving and will benefit from the trip. The late
Robert Sangster said that badly named horses do not win Derbys – well , I hope, for once, he is wrong .I don’t think that Jack Hobbs is a bad name.
Giovanna Canaletto being by Galileo shouldn’t mind quicker conditions
But yes you’re right if the rain stays away, which seems likely, it heavily favours the jolly.
I don’t think Best of times will stay, he looks built like a ten furlong horse to me. Quite muscular and also from a getting home in the derby point of view, it must be at least slightly worrying that in his second race they ran him over six furlongs at Salisbury.
He came there to win the race last time at Goodwood and didn’t seem to get home. Now was that due to a lack of stamina, or blowing up through lack of fitness? My guess is the former. I don’t think that race was the greatest anyway.
Epicuris is starting to get interesting. Especially given he’s a rather big looking 25-1, given the doubts about the favourites. A Khalid Abdulla French/English derby double?
Ok there may be worries that he’ll get worked up in the prelimanaries, but if he doesn’t go in the stalls you’ll get your money back anyway, and if he does he could be quite a straightforward ride. He’ll be up there in the van andjust keep galloping in the straight. Handles soft ground so any thunderstorms on the Friday will be in his favour,and if they don’t come given he’s by rail link he could even improve for the better ground.
Also as far as getting the distance is concerned, any horse that won over a mile in heavy ground as a two year old should have no problem getting the trip
Storm The Stars come out at 21.4 on that theory LOL
! And Elm Park and Golden Horn both come in at less than 19, which is worrying
In the Oaks it’s less clear, plenty of fillies with Stamina doubts have won in recent years, which suggests to me they go far less of a helter skelter in the fillies race than they do in the Derby
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thejudge1 wrote:</div>
In the Oaks I think Together Forever will be staying on in the straight, bred to stay and was doing well late on in the MusidoraI would always be inclined to take visual evidence over pedigree and at least to my eyes I thought Together Forever was going to run down Star Of Seville but in the last few yards it seemed the leader was at least holding on. Was it lack of a run, the weight concession or lack of stamina that decided the issue? Dettori has further complicated the issue by deserting to winner for another filly who also doesn’t look a certain stayer.
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I was in the paddock at York that day and Together Forever’s coat looked in terrible condition. I actually texted my mate and said lay the O’Brien filly for everything you have as she looked completely unfit and couldn’t possibly win looking like that.
As it was she ran on and nearly won. I will be having a confident bet on her on Friday
Well Giovanni Canaletto should definitely stay in the derby being a full brother to Ruler of the world
All of the Obrien horses lock rock solid to stay in fact
I think Elm Park and Jack Hobbs should stay but less clear
In the Oaks I think Together Forever will be staying on in the straight, bred to stay and was doing well late on in the Musidora
One of the criteria which seems to work well is looking at the racing post website and against each runners name is “average winning distance of sires.” Not as complex perhaps as Dosages
In fact in the last 15 runnings of the Derby I think the average is something like 21.4 if you combine the Sire and the Dam Sire and there’s only been one horse who has come in at less than 19, which was Sea The Stars
Legatissimo has been poorly drawn in stall one. Stall one and two are bad for the Oaks apparently, no filly has won from that draw for years.
Anyway it’s seen her price drift out a little and now the Stoute filly is starting to challenge her for favouritism
I can see the attraction with Besharah. Same owner as Rizeena who won this a couple of years ago and also won at Ascot, and so many don’t even handle that track.
Personally I was just as impressed with Easton Angel, who took a decent looking Hilary Needler field apart, the jockey was taking a tug at the two furlong pole which you rarely see in five furlong races. She did a slightly quicker speed figure I think than the colt First selection did when he won on the same card. One thing I always do at Ascot is back horses that can travel well, because the very fast pace that races tend to be run at during the the Royal Meeting can seen them improve even further.
Easton Angel also ran quick on her debut at Musselburgh beating some colts. She’s the quickest two year old they have in the North now she has to prove herself against the Southern lot. Trainer thinks a lot of her. However the cat is out of the bag to some degree and it’s not like she’s 10-1.
Royal Ascot two year old races are a bit of a minefield of course. I think it’s a mistake to take a short price about any runners, because there are so many unknowns. Doubtless Wesley Ward will send over some souped-up speed machines as well, like he normally does, when it’s difficult to gauge how good they are
Pour Moi was a horrible Derby winning name. Should’ve been Frankel!
Actually the best derby for names (in my subjective and quite obviously flawed opinion) was the 1986 derby when the fantastically named Dancing Brave (who I see you has as your avatar) just failed to get up to beat the equally well named Sharastani in the final furlong…
I still get goosebumps when I see that Video on youtube, Graham Goode calling it “Dancing Brave powering down the center of the track,but OH so much to do!”
In a way that race is the embodiment of the tragedy and drama of sport. Somehow Dancing Brave’s heroic defeat was more inspiring to me than any of his incredible victories.
I’ve just bought a 2 year old horse called Destruction Derby. should I enter him for 2016?
No with a name like that he has no chance
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thejudge1 wrote:</div>
On the subjects of stats and trends, hows this one? How about the good name theory?Over the years the derby has been won by horses with fantastically lyrical names, like:
Nijinsky
Troy
Golden Fleece
Sharastani
Nashwan
Generous
Commander in Chief
and so on.
Seven names going back 45 years? One ‘good’ one every 6-and-a-bit years? Is this really the basis of a good system?
Obviously it’s entirely subjective and not meant to be taken seriously but what was lyrical or whatever about any of the names since Commander In Chief?
That’s why I said “like” I was just giving examples.
You could also add
Morston
Snow Knight
The Minstrel
Shirley Heights
Shergar
Secreto
Slip Anchor
Reference Point
Quest for fame
as well as numerous other examples
Since Commander in chief you’ve had
Galileo
North Light
Sea the stars
Obviously this is entirely subjective as you say, and although they seem very well named to me they might be something else to someone else…
If you were just going by names the only ‘naff’ names you’d rule out this year are Jack Hobbs and Rocky Rider. Unless you’re a cricket fan, of course, in which case Jack Hobbs would be a brilliant name.
If there was a runner called Muhammed Ali would we dismiss it as naff? How about Bobby Moore? Roger Federer?
The reason why ‘good’ names win the race is because most horses have good names.
Do they? What about a typical race from Southwell, most of them have terrible names.
Looking at the field for this years Derby you have
Best of times (sounds too ordinary to win a derby, anyway won’t stay in a horsebox)
Carbon Dating (dreadful name, put a line through it)
Elm Park (sounds ok but nothing special)
Epicuris (doesn’t sound like a derby winner, but also not a terrible name)
Giovanni Canaletto (sounds like an icecream)
Golden Horn (sounds like a derby winner)
Hans Holbein (too predictable an ordinary name for a derby winner)
Kilimanjaro (see above)
Moheet (dreadful name, put a line through it)
Rocky Rider (even worse)
Rogue Runner (see above)
Storm the stars (sounds like it’s sire sea the stars, but doesn’t have quite the same spark to it)
Success Days (sounds too ordinary to be a derby winner)
Zarwaq (exotic arab type name, possible)
I agree this is hardly scientific and would have fallen down in the years when the mediocre sounding workforce or high-rise won, for example (or benny the dip) but there is some logic behind it. If you have a young horse that has shown some promise on the gallops and is well-bred, then you give it a good name. It’s not always possible to come up with an excellent name for every horse. So you save the best for the best!
Just a thought…those judging horses on the basis of the Breakfast workouts might want to bear in mind how far from the inside rail they were on passing the post. The camber from that centre point to the rail is pretty severe.
Yes but Elm Park looked more awkward coming around the bend that he did up the home straight. He just didn’t look comfortable at all. That would be a worry for me especially as this will be the point when they are starting to really quicken in the big race on Saturday. I have already put a bullseye on Elm Park at 7-1 so still have some hopes for him and in some ways he fits the trends, having run at 7 furlongs at two (I think all of the last ten winners ran over seven furlongs as a two year old) but that track thing is worrying me.
I take your points see the sun about Jack Hobbs but the natural progression of the horse suggests to me that he could well be up to group one level. We’ll know more after Saturday.
On the subjects of stats and trends, hows this one? How about the good name theory?
Over the years the derby has been won by horses with fantastically lyrical names, like:
Nijinsky
Troy
Golden Fleece
Sharastani
Nashwan
Generous
Commander in Chief
and so on.
I just wonder if this is a coincidence. It seems to me that owners when naming a horse that they think might be a potential derby horse, reserve the best names they can think of for that horse.You are hardly going to call a horse who you think might win you a derby Joe Bloggs (or Jack Hobbs?
)The one that fits that particular trend this year I must admit is surely Golden Horn, which sounds rather like the 1982 winner of the derby and also something that might have come out of a George R R Martin book.
Perhaps it is taking credibility too far to suggest that Robert Oppenhiemer, ( I assume it was him who named the horse, not Gosden) far from being unsure about the horse’s ability to last the distance, always had this horse in mind as a potential derby winner?
Personally, I would be all over Elm Park beating Jack Hobbs in a match bet.
Jack Hobbs is still very raw and was by far the fitter horse in the Dante. Elm Park was keen early on and still travelling very well until about 2f out. Whilst Jack Hobbs running style suggests 12f will suit, I just have severe doubts about that.
Jack Hobbs is my place lay of the race. I think it will hang all over the place and I’m just not convinced this horse is mentally ready for the Derby.
Can’t have that Jack is a place lay. Looked very good in his racecourse gallop at Breakfast with the stars. He might not get home but if he does he’ll be a danger to all. Ran a quicker final two furlongs when he won at Sandown earlier in the year than the older Custom Cut did when winning the mile race earlier in the card.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Coolmore’s first choice is going to have a very good chance of winning the derby. I think the fact that some of their early contenders like JFK have fallen by the wayside has lead many to mistakenly underestimate the Irish breeding/training juggernaut.
In fact all you have to do is look at the roll call of recent winners and see that they’ve won the last three derby’s. The race was all against Giovanni last time, they went no pace but the way it powered home in the last couple of furlongs is rather ominous for the opposition on Saturday.
I’m kicking myself as I was down the bookies earlier and was considering taking the 14-1 Giovanni Canaletto and it’s now into 8-1 and I’ve missed the boat. Backed Jack Hobbs instead at 11-2 NRMB which I’m reasonably happy with but very worried about this O’brien dark horse. Probably too late to back it now.
When it’s raking stride enables it to swoop past in the final furlong on Saturday past a bunch on non-stayers I might well be kicking my television in.
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