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<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
I haven’t been keeping up with this thread (or indeed this forum) for some time so apologies if I’m repeating anything.If there’s one ‘aspect’ of form study I can’t quite get my head around it’s the ‘stats’ approach. Most of the time they are (un)fortunate coincidences. Often you’ll hear the ‘stats’ people say something like “8 of the last 10 winners have…”, etc.
So what? It means two of them (one in five) haven’t. And what kind of solid basis is 10 years?
The dark hose is Epicuris, who is probably overpriced at the moment. I suspect the French form is quite good but stamina evidence is inconclusive. However, he is trained by a genius who might well have more insight into his form and stamina and it’s hard to imagine her bypassing Chantilly for this without solid reason. I might take some of the 25/1 but that’s down to faith in the trainer rather than in the horse.
At this point, I do think Jack Hobbs – declared doubtful after the Dante so off the radar since then – is the most likely winner but it is as poor a renewal as I can remember.
I’m not really a stats or trends man myself. Much of the time the connection is spurious. The one stat that I do like is how good the horse is going into the race.
The Derby comes early enough in the season and the slower developing types are at a disadvantage in my mind. There are a few runners in the mix who need about a stone of improvement to be involved and while it’s far from impossible by season’s end that they will have caught up, it’s a tough ask to find enough in a few weeks since their last run.
Just a footnote on Epicuris. He’s a bit of a red herring here. The horse has problems going into the stalls and needs his “shrink” with him in order to go in. They could not get permission for the behaviour expert to be with him to help load him at Chantilly and that is the only reason he runs here instead of the French Derby last Sunday.
Epicuris looked slow the day he was beaten by Silverwave on his reappearance. Silverwave was unbeaten at the time but he did win with a good bit of authority. Silverwave did run in the French Derby and he was backed in from 6/1 to 9/2 but he found very little when asked for his effort and steadily faded back to finish 9th of the 14 runners. Not very encouraging for Epicuris.
Epicuris has all his best form on the very/soft and heavy ground. It was heavy when he was beaten four lengths by Silverwave, so no real excuse for his odd-on defeat that day. I can’t think of any reason other than the trainer to be enthused about his chance. Even with his psychiatrist down at the start with him, will he load into the stalls in the furnace atmosphere of Derby Day? Will he handle the track, will the ground be too fast, is he anywhere near good enough?
Epicuris is a group 1 winner but it was on the 8th of November on bottomless ground. Even Silviniaco Conti would have been gasping for air that day. Three of the colts who ran that day haven’t been seen again, the other three have all been beaten since. Clonard Street the most recently, tailed back a disappointing 6th or 7 behind Curvy, who beat Giovanni Canaletto.
Epicuris at 16/1 for the Derby is absolutely appalling value, even at 25/1 he’s of no appeal to me. I am not kidding when I say I wouldn’t take 100/1 on him.
Jack Hobbs is a good each-way shout and I thought he was the value after the Dante to at least place in the race. I think he’ll beat Elm Park further this time but I can’t see him turning it around with Golden Horn. I feel the dodgy stayer will quicken past time and it would not be a shock if they are first and second.
After Frankie’s reversal on whether Star Of Seville idled or tired and subsequent switch to Jazzi Top, he seems to be cracking up again going into the Derby. After picking the wrong horse in the Dante, he seems to be paranoid now that Jack Hobbs will reverse it. He is also “wary” of the Godolphin team, despite it looking one of the poorest assembled in years. I hope this lack of confidence doesn’t transfer to the horse.
Get a grip on yourself Frankie and ride it like you are on the best horse in the race, in all probability you are!lol
I can just imagine him sitting there in a darkened room, if Star of Seville wins the Oaks and Jack Hobbs beats him into second in the Derby, shaking his head and saying “I knew it, I knew it would happen to me…”
I must admit that when I saw the guineas I thought this will definitely win the oaks.
My only concern would be that both times she’s been this way around she’s been beaten… and she seemed to struggle in the soft ground behind Stormfly on her first run of the year
it’s clutching at straws I know
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Bobby Bluebell wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
This stat is incorrect. Pour Moi, Workforce and Ruler of the World were all rated less than 119 by the Racing Post coming into the Derby.
Sorry but I had no way of checking through them all. It was put up as gospel on the Derby preview guide I was looking at. Obviously whoever compiled the article was a bit lacking in their homework. I have been noticing that quite a bit recently and At The Races are not to be trusted implicitly by any means.
There has been a trend for article headlines to intimate a certain aspect of a horse’s chance but when you go in an read the piece the trainer has been no where near as bullish as the headline seemed to suggest. A recent example was Limato and Henry Candy being very sweet on his chance, however he was neutral at best when you read the text. I am assuming the pun element is inspiring some of these ahead of actually forming a precis of the item.
Anyway, apologies for quoting some numpty who can’t count to 120.
I found this particularly terrible example of a complete lack of even the most passing research today: http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9872556/the-insider-ante-post-betting-preview-of-the-investec-oaks
In this he states that “Her manner of victory bore some similarity to that of Blue Bunting – the last Newmarket heroine to double up at Epsom”
Blue Bunting didn’t win the oaks, she finished fourth behind Dancing Rain.
Shocking.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thejudge1 wrote:</div>
No need to get so jumpy. Tbh I agree with you. Hans Holbein, Kiliminjaro, Storm the stars, based on trends they can’t win.Where I don’t agree is with Gleneagles. Whereas I could easily see Golden Horn winning, just can’t have Gleneagles at all. Just don’t see him getting home.
Actually if they do run this horse (which I think would be a mistake) then the expected fast pace set by Coolmore to test flaws in other runners stamina might not materialise.
I’m not jumpy, just pointing out that I had admitted in my post that some horses were not far short of the figure.
It’s the horses with a stone to find that I was aiming at, sorry if it came across as combative.
I think Gleneagles had a lot less chance of staying than Golden Horn but his class would have helped him offset some of the detrimental effects.
I feel it is utterly farcical that they took as long as they did to rule the horse out of the race. They have finally admitted that the B-team will have to suffice.
No worries
Btw I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Giovanni Canaletto. Let’s not forget that Coolmore are going for an almost unprecedented fourth derby in a row.
He ran the last two furlongs at the Curragh last time about the same time as the specialist 10 furlong horse Al Kazeem, both coming off an equally pedestrian pace. He basically finished like a train even if he looked an awkward ride before that. Going up to a mile and a half could bring about a huge amount of improvement and his sire Galileo has also started to dominate this race in recent years. If anything 10-1 seems almost on the generous side.
Having said all that he still got beat in a race that if you are going to win the Derby you would expect to win doing handstands. But who knows. Be interesting to see if Moore chooses to ride him because as you’ve pointed out the other two probably are too exposed and not good enough to win the Derby. If Coolmore are to win the Derby this year it’s surely Giovanni Canaletto.
I must admit I’m starting to go off Elm Park a little bit as was watching his gallop from Breakfast in the stars earlier and he looked terrible, really struggling to handle the track. Even the jockey afterwards was reluctant to commit himself to the horse.
Golden Horn looked ok in his gallop but nothing special, although he wasn’t asked to do anything serious. The really impressive one was Jack Hobbs, powering clear of his lead horse Marzocco in the manner of a horse who is really starting to relish his racing.
Screw all this Stamina talk. I reckon big Jack could win this purely on ability
Dettori has opted for Jazzi Top which I find surprising.
Personally of the pair I have been far more impressed visually by Star of Seville. Going back to that Musidora run, she was slightly fretful in the paddock which would be slightly worrying for Oaks day I must admit, she did ease clear of her rivals in the manner of a class horse. She’ll also travel well at Epsom. William Buick on board instead of the Italian will be a plus rather than a minus.And Jazzi Top has already been beaten at odds on at Kempton.Nothing about Jazzi Top strikes me as a classic winner although I must confess purely on paper she’s the more likely of the pair to get the distance.
I must also admit that looking in the paddock at Together Forever at York, although I was eventually impressed with the way she finished given the condition of her coat, and I did think there was a good chance she’d come on about two stones for the run, I also was shocked by how small she was.
She looked really pony size and Star of Seville looked far more scopey of the two. And was the tiring at the end because she was idling at the end or was she coming to the end of the tether? Detorri clearly thinks it’s the latter, but it wouldn’t be the first time that he’s been wrong.
The small size of the Coolmore filly may have been the reason why O’brien ran Together Forever a lot as a two year old, because he realised she didn’t have the size to train on as a three year old. Found is another rather small filly was campaigned at a high level last year and may not have trained on much from two to three. Then again Together Forever has a lot going in her favour, like she will like the quick ground and she’s almost certain to get the trip.
The other question in my mind is where is the pace coming from? The Oaks far more than the derby for me in recent years has been won by horses that shouldn’t have got the trip on paper, probably because they are far less likely to go a decent gallop in the fillies race. Obrien and Coolmore are always desperate to win the Derby, but if they don’t win the Oaks they will probably just shrug it off and move on. So there’s not the strategy you get in the Derby.
As there’s no obvious front runner in the race I can see Buick making it on Star of Seville and gradually winding it up from the front. If they go no pace I reckon it’ll suit the runners like Star of Seville and the Stoute horse much more than horses like Legatissimo and some of the others who like a decent pace to aim at.
Having said all this (and probably contradicted myself a billion times) I might just double dutch Star of Seville and Together Forever anyway, and hope the musidora form holds up. My gut feeling now is that Gosden, the dominant trainer of these shores might well just do the Derby-Oaks double this year.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thejudge1 wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
Aye good try but Elm Park is only 1 pound short and Gleneagles won’t get home in a horse box
It’s not a “good try”, it’s a fact.
I acknowledged that Elm Park and and a couple of others were not far short and the gist of the post was that Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are way short of the standard.
Do you really think they would have left Gleneagles in this long, or even entered him in the first place if they felt he were not worthy of a try at the trip. Gleneagles has 20 lbs in hand of Kilimanjaro on the official ratings and that gives him some leeway even if the trip is too far.
They will all “get” the trip, in the sense that they will all finish. The key is how long it takes them to do so. I’ve seen plenty “stout stayers” tailed off behind the class horses before now.
No need to get so jumpy. Tbh I agree with you. Hans Holbein, Kiliminjaro, Storm the stars, based on trends they can’t win.
Where I don’t agree is with Gleneagles. Whereas I could easily see Golden Horn winning, just can’t have Gleneagles at all. Just don’t see him getting home.
Actually if they do run this horse (which I think would be a mistake) then the expected fast pace set by Coolmore to test flaws in other runners stamina might not materialise.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
Aye good try but Elm Park is only 1 pound short and Gleneagles won’t get home in a horse box
I must confess that if I saw the Dante in isolation and knew nothing about pedigrees (well I probably know nothing about them anyway) I’d be convinced that horse will win the Derby and wouldn’t give an earthly prayer to the second or third turning the form around
Interesting quote by Pricewise Tom Segal in the racing post today, something about “he can’t wait to see Golden Horn in the derby and whether or not he’ll prove all the pedigree experts wrong, who have been saying that he hasn’t got a prayer of staying”
Fascinating stuff fellas. What do you think of Found, Crepello? Is it a shot in the dark with her running in the Derby, and would she get home in that or the Oaks?
I must confess was really looking forward to this filly, and although she’s been disappointing so far this year she did run on very well last time and has exactly the sort of nippy, athletic frame that should be ideal for Epsom
Interesting… although as you
The female line provides the stamina in around 90% of pedigrees. That is why we have seen horses sired by a sprinter or miler winning races like the Derby. Dr Devious (Ahanoora) Hard Ridden (Hard Sauce) and as mentioned in an earlier post North Light (Danehill). Their female lines were all stamina laden ones. There have been very few instances of a horse winning the Derby out of a sprinting mare. Nimbus (Nearco-Kong- Baytown) is the only one I can think of. Kong was a sprinter, her sire Baytown won the Irish Derby though and Nearco Nimbus’s sire won over twelve furlongs, though he wasn’t a huge influence for stamina. Nimbus won the 2000 Guineas and then just scraped home at Epsom, hanging badly, in the first photo finish used for the race.
Golden Horn is by a stallion that will sire a stayer from a staying mare; Golden Horn’s female line consists of mares who work the other way and produce fast horses from staying stallions. What’s remarkable is that he stays ten furlongs, he could be a freak, but he will be the first horse in modern times to win a Derby from that sort of breeding.Interesting… although as you say he could be a freak.
what’s your take on the likes of Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and the Weld horse staying the trip Crepello?
Hans Holbein if he lines up could be an each-way play. Beautiful breeding for the race being by Montjeu out of a Shirley heights mare
You know he is going to get the trip. It could end up being a brutal race if Obrien wants to test the favourites stamina and Hans Holbein and Storm the stars could be staying on well at the death when the more fancied favourites are crying enough
Montjeu horses have a fantastic record in the derby. He’s already sired four winners although Galileo has started to challenged his preeminence in recent years. I guess with his sad and untimely death this could be his last runner in the race?!
Think the only worry with Hans and Storm the stars, is are they quite up to this level, they might just be group two horses and lack on the class angle.
Well Jack Hobbs might not look like the right type for Epsom, but he’s impressive here: https://youtu.be/JZTM_2o3-Ms
But isn’t pedigree enough? It’s a fairly precise science these days. For example the above poster gives North Light as an example, and although he was by Danehill he was very stoutly bred on the female side. Danehill is one of these sires like Pivotal who can get horses to stay much further than they did, but only if they have the right kind of breeding on the Dam’s side. I just don’t see same stout breeding on the damside of Golden Horn, although of course you are right that you still can’t be certain that it won’t get the trip anyway.
And if you want another angle that has more to do with the racecourse, well Golden Horn brilliantly won it’s maiden with a sweeping turn of foot at Nottingham. But the horse that was second that day, Storm the stars, was fighting back at it at the death. He also runs at Epsom and over an extra half mile, wouldn’t that little fight back worry you a little? Was Golden Horn idling in the final few yards or was he coming to the end of his tether? Who knows, perhaps I’m overanalysing it.
Of course we won’t know for sure with any of these animals until the day. We don’t know for sure if Elm Park will stay, Golden Horn,or Jack Hobbs. Zarwaq. That’s what makes these debates so fascinating. Was it Vincent O Brien who said if you have a horse certain to stay the derby distance then it would be too slow? But we do have history to guide us to some extent. Plenty of other horses have been hugely fancied to win the Derby based on highly impressive performances at shorter distances and have failed to get the trip. That’s a warning in itself.
I mean on breeding Hans Holbein is probably pretty certain to stay on paper, but no one really wants to back it because it’s just viewed as one of Aiden’s also rans. None of the really fancied horses by contrast are certain to get the trip, but given the doubts, purely from a price angle I’m more excited by Elm Park’s price at 7-1 than Golden Horn at around 7-4.
You also have to worry about the jockey with Golden Horn, El Frankie, who Authorized aside doesn’t have the best record in this race. Authorized was pretty much a steering job and perhaps Golden Horn is as well, but he’s going in at a similar sort of price and I think this race is a lot more competitive than that one was.
You are probably right about my contradicting myself, but my hope is that Elm Park’s cruising speed has a lot to do with his huge raking stride, rather than a buzzy horse who’s going to be running on fumes when they finally get into the Epsom straight
Well one reason, pedigree.
The owner breeder Oppenheimer has already expressed his doubts about this horse getting the trip. I can’t pretend to be an expert on pedigree, but even a layman like myself can do some rudimentary investigation.
His sire Cape Cross was a miler. Ok Sea the Stars was also by that sire and won the Derby winning a cart, a good omen in his favour. However if you dig deeper Sea the Stars was also by Urban Sea, who won the Arc, whereas Golden Horn’s unraced Dam was by Dubai Destination, pretty much an out and out miler.
Even the biggest Golden Horn fan must confess that we won’t know if he gets the trip until Dettori pushes the button at the two furlong marker. My guess is there’s a good chance the tank might be close to running on empty at that point.
You can often get blinded by these trial performances. Golden Horn showed blinding speed in the Dante, so much speed in fact that I reckon it will struggle to get the stiff mile and a half at Epsom. Time might prove that it’s just a high class 10 furlong horse, which tbf is what it’s bred to be.
I recall Lush Lashes winning the Musidora a few years back and ran so quick in the last few furlongs I was certain it would win the Oaks, but in the race itself it fell in a hole half way up the straight even if it stayed 12 furlongs later in it’s career.
Carlton House a few years back also won the Dante impressively in the style of a horse who would improve for the extra distance. It didn’t and a while later they were running it over a mile.
As far as Elm Park is concerned, his pedigree is much more encouraging as I said earlier. The sire Phoenix reach was third in a Leger, all of his good horses have had no problems staying beyond a mile and a half, most have improved for stepping up in trip and Elm Park’s Dam, Lady Brora was by Dashing Blade who easily won when he was eventually stepped up to a mile and a half in his final race. Further back in her line is Ian Balding’s brilliant derby winner Mill Reef.
I think in fact far from being a non-stayer Elm Park will improve significantly for the extra distance. I can’t recall many Racing post winners who haven’t stayed a mile and a half actually. This horse has significant early pace as well which should enable it to get a decent position early on in the race, which is so important in the Derby. The only thing it does need is a bit of rain
If Elm Park runs (slight concern about the ground) I reckon it might just win. He’s got a good cruising speed, which you need around Epsom. When they quicken around the home bend it really helps to be in a position to challenge. So often you see horses in behind who get into trouble, don’t handle the track or don’t have the cruising speed to hold their position.
I don’t buy that Elm Park is just some slow St Leger horse, Ok it’s sire was a running on third in the St Leger behind Brian Boru but Elm Park has already shown slightly more pace and preciousness than Phoenix Reach. Looking at the sire stats on the racing post website most of the better progeny of Phoenix reach have been stayers, so he should have no problem getting the trip.And Kingston Hill nearly won the Derby last year and then went on to win the St Leger, so having the ability to stay the trip should not be underestimated.
I would be worried about a big top heavy horse like Jack Hobbs around Epsom, he looked an awkward ride at York although if he did managed to handle the track you could see him running on in the straight and passing them all. Halling although a ten furlong horse himself has sired a number of strong stayers like Cavarlyman. And the speed figure he put up at Sandown was very impressive.
Reading between the lines I think if it were just up to Gosden he would probably give this race a miss with this horse and send him to Royal Ascot instead, but Godolphin buying Jack Hobbs has forced his hand somewhat. That might work out well, who knows. I think he might have a better chance of staying than his stablemate Golden Horn, and although that quote about Lester Piggott is interesting, from my experience everything I’ve seen Lester tip up has been hopeless. Besides aren’t all jockeys supposed to be terrible tipsters?
Uninspiring Oaks? Why is it uninspiring?
You have the 1000 guineas winner, who the way she ran on there looked ideal for stepping up to a mile and a half. Crystal Zvezda, who looked visually stunning at Newbury. Lady of Dubai who looked the same at Goodwood. Travelled and quickened like a dream and the jockey was raving about her afterwards. Found, who was the top juvenile filly last year and ran on very well in the Irish 1000 guineas. Rather than uninspiring, I’d say it was one of the better renewals of this race and currently looks a stronger race than the Derby.
Then you have the two Gosden fillies. I was at York for the Musidora and watching together forever in the paddock she looked in much worse condition than the winner of that race, Star of Seville.
In fact her coat looked in truly woeful condition and her ribs were showing. I’m no great paddock judge but I would assume that would mean she might come on for her race.
In fact I texted my mate beforehand to say to lay her for all he’s worth as she couldn’t possibly win in that state. But she nearly did, running on very well and O’brien often runs his best Oaks filly at York, so at 10-1 I’d say she was the value.
Certainly she should get the trip no problem so looks a good each-way bet for the race. I remember Alexandrova getting stuffed in the Musidora by Short Skirt and then scooting up in the Oaks, Together Forever probably wouldn’t be in that league but I can’t have her out of the frame.
