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I’ve backed Limato, who now seems a big price considering he was trading at much shorter a few weeks ago.
Obviously the Ryan Moore bandwagon isn’t so much up and running now as smashing everything in it’s path, so it’s not surprising that Hootenanny has been heavily punted, but I don’t see much juice in it’s price.Then again price seems irrelevant to Moore at the moment- he seems to win on everything he’s put up on.
One other horse I’ve backed as well as Limato is Jungle Cat, who I think could go well at a huge price. Loves fast ground, finished second in the Coventry stakes and a close second to the much shorter in the betting Adaay at Newbury. Well drawn and quite fancy him to pull off a huge upset.
Incidentally I think the second is the bigger and scopier of the two- although I certainly don’t think it will win the guineas, as it’s quite speedily bred. Could be a commonwealth cup horse for next season.
Well done Buratino backers. Clearly the fact he hadn’t posted a speed figure of note was irrelevant.
Feel sick myself- backed Air Force Blue had 50 on it at 8-1, thought it was going to win just couldn’t cope with the turn of foot of the winner. Got a feeling this is going to be a long week.
I think Limato got bogged down in the softer ground last time. This horse has an amazing action on quick ground.
Back on quick summer ground, he’ll travel like a ferrari. I certainly think he’ll turn the form around with Adaay, whether he’s good enough to beat the others we’ll find out but at around 7-2 I’m willing to chance it.
I would also take Henry Candy’s comments that he’s concerned that the other three year olds might have improved past Limato with a pinch of salt. He strikes me as a reticent and humble sort of guy who is likely to err on the side of caution with his comments.
I fancy Make believe as well, obviously the favourite is the favourite for a reason, but to me he looked desperate unimpressive last time out, and I don’t buy all the usual hyperbole afterwards from Aidan about him being the “best miler he’s ever trained”
What about Hawk Wing, Rock of Gibraltar, Henry the Navigator?
The slow pace they went at the Curragh was probably against him but there’s no obvious pace here either, I think the French horse should get a soft lead and gradually wind it up from the front. Clearly the worry is the ground but the trainer doesn’t sound concerned.
Btw ol Wesley is rather partial to the odd bit of hyperbole. Here’s what he had to say about his contender in the Queen Mary stakes, Acapulco, a race that he famously won with Jealous Again:
: A $750,000 purchase at the Ocala Breeders’ Sales auction in March, this daughter of Scat Daddy finished third, beaten seven and three quarter lengths in her only start at Churchill Downs on May 8.
“I went into the race at Churchill extremely confident, didn’t think she could lose,” Ward said. “The only thing is with a two-year-old out of the sale, they don’t have as much foundation under them as when I break them myself.”
Ward deduced that Acapulco didn’t like the Churchill surface and that when he breezed her on the turf at Keeneland just seven days after that race, his jaw dropped.
“By far and away the best work I ever had of any horse I ever trained on the grass,” Ward said. “It was a sight to see. A couple of Coolmore boys were out to watch the work themselves. It was a phenomenal work.
“Since then, all her works have been lights out. If she runs anything like she’s breezed there’s no way anything I ever had would beat her.”
Beaten on her only start at odds on but apparently the best horse he’s ever trained. A morning glory horse or one that will win by half the track? You decide…
I wouldn’t advocate backing him at single field odds but the market would suggest the interesting horse is War Department. I thought 12/1 looked a bit skinny but now you will be lucky to beat 8/1. He looks the part and his maiden win was impressive but was there really much substance to it? Ground shouldn’t be an issue but lacking experience against several well touted rivals surely he can only drift?
I’m not sure what relevance a lack of experience has- this is the Coventry stakes? Most of the runners lack for experience and once raced winners have a good record in the race.
Be interesting to see how Wesley Ward’s two year old’s get on as they always seem to be three year olds running against two year olds in terms of physical development.
I remember his beast from a few years back that won the Norfolk- it looked like it had been on more drugs than Ben Johnson and positively dwarfed his rivals.
Of course it’s almost impossible to gauge how good they are compared to their rivals, a complete lack of video or collateral form and so on, but sometimes it’s best to leave the brain at home and trust in wesley
The Great Gatsby was very disappointing last time, but the ground might have been on the slightly sticky side for him, and they went a slow pace which would have been all against him as he’s a galloping type that stays well.
To me he represents excellent value as the highest rated horse in the race.
Sorry that should have read “if you watch Muthmir win at Doncaster at the end of last year” Although he also won at York.
Question for the historians. Has a horse even won the Coventry on debut ?
I have a friend of a friend who is linked to Margeson yard as a former owner. Apparently, his horse Any Guest who is yet to run is meant to be extremely useful.
Margeson has told him to back it each way for 2016 Guineas and is comfortably the best horse he has had.
Highly unlikely it can win this on debut, but this horse is the apple of his eye by all accounts.
I seem to recall Kingsgate native finishing second in one of the big two year old races at Ascot on it’s debut. Maybe it was the chesham? Then perhaps it went on to run and win later in the week? Or perhaps my memory is playing tricks.
Sir Roger Moore is an interesting runner. Ran very well at York on his debut in a hot looking maiden, and in a race where none of the favourites look exceptional to me, he could offer very good value.
With the death of his old friend Christopher Lee this week, could be a good fillip for the old boy.
I live fairly near Newcastle and have often debated visiting the track.
However if they turn it into a dreadful all weather track I wouldn’t be interested in the slightest. Depressing.
I don’t think Elgransenor had a stone in hand over Secreto, not on the day anyway. If he had he would have won.
It is tedious in the extreme but there’s no excuse to not go and watch racing- much better than watching it on the telly.
Log Out Island for me. Thrashed Buratino on his debut by 5 lengths, since snapped up by Godolphin and been prepared for this race. 7/1.
Agreed. Buratino may have improved but he’s had five runs and the best top speed he’s put up is 73, Log out Island one run and top speed of 90. Course form as well. Not rocket science is it. Buratino did look visually impressive on Saturday but my best guess was he beat trees.
I think Nick Mordin had a system going back a few years which was one of his better ones, I can’t recall what it was exactly but I think it was something like almost every Coventry winner has achieved a top speed rating and racing post rating of 90 or above on it’s 1st or second run
which obviously brings in the favourite and Log out island. Mind you I guess there’s a strong possibility Log out island might go for the Norfolk?
Jack Hobbs seems like an out and out galloper to me, which is perfect for this stiff track. I think he’ll be very tough to beat if he’s in anything like the same form he was at Epsom. Could be a St Jovite type performance.
I think Round two seems a decent horse but his price seems more on the trainer’s comments than what he’s actually achieved on the racetrack. Dawn Approach had more of the wow factor going into his Coventry for me, he won at 7-2 but Round two is already considerably shorter than that.
Obviously he could win but at the likely price I’d be looking at something else.
Well done to Steve Cauthen and all the other Golden Horn fans.
I must admit I feel quite stupid there because like a lot of others I over analysed the race and put too much emphasis on the pedigree angle.
I’ve actually been for a jog around the York track and it’s a hell of a racetrack- if you can gallop around there over 10 furlongs and still produce a kick at the end of it, then a mile an half around Epsom should be a doddle.
I backed Jack Hobbs and went he kicked into the lead in the home straight I started screaming at the tv only to be deflated moments later when Golden Horn swept past him doing a passable impression of pegasus
Jack Hobbs is a top class horse in his own right and if they can keep him away from his wonderhorse of a stablemate then I think he will bag a top prize by the end of the season
in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if they sent Golden Horn for the eclipse while keeping Jack Hobbs for the Curragh and the Irish derby- I think he could be nailed on there as the galloping track in Ireland will be right up his street.
