Commonwealth Cup

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    Henry Candy fears that the cavalry have caught up with Limato as he hasn’t physically changed much since a 2 year old. He is drifting almost to an each way price and doesn’t look a particularly safe bet right now.

    I always felt last year that he should have been aimed at the highest level (maybe abroad) as he was head and shoulders above the rest.
    He only has that listed race to his name last year (Group 3 win on return to 2015) and who knows what the future holds. It seems like a missed opportunity and maybe that decision not to test him was swayed by this new group 1 for 3 year olds.

    Saying that, he still holds every chance here, but I don’t know if its a risk worth taking.

    What are your feelings on this race?

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    Limato should be happier on the forecast fast ground but think Hootenanny will prove to be a different class to the opposition and expect him to hose up.

    • Total Posts 2254

    I think Limato got bogged down in the softer ground last time. This horse has an amazing action on quick ground.

    Back on quick summer ground, he’ll travel like a ferrari. I certainly think he’ll turn the form around with Adaay, whether he’s good enough to beat the others we’ll find out but at around 7-2 I’m willing to chance it.

    I would also take Henry Candy’s comments that he’s concerned that the other three year olds might have improved past Limato with a pinch of salt. He strikes me as a reticent and humble sort of guy who is likely to err on the side of caution with his comments.

    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
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    I was at day 1 last year and Hootenanny was head and shoulders above the others in stature and size and for me he was a typical Wesley Ward 2 year old. I might be wrong but I’m writing him off on the bases that if he got any bigger or stronger he wont fit in the stalls and Ward has a great record at Ascot with two year olds but is unproven with older horses. No Nay Never couldn’t get on track for his intended target as a 3 year old I believe Hootenanny to be another early maturing horse same as NNN.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
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    Outsiders often win races at Royal Ascot, however this looks a seven horse race to me.

    Hootenanny has Royal Ascot form and Wesley Ward’s already had a winner this week. Trainer has a better record at 5f than 6 but this one has proven stamina enough for further as well as speed. Big brute, am sure a lot of British trainers would like to know what the Americans feed their horses. 5/1 yesterday was value, but the Ryan Moore factor (and Pricewise) has forced him down to 100/30.

    Tiggy Wiggy was imo not quite at her peak form in the Guineas, considering the mile stretched her is probably as good as she was at two. But is that good enough? In all probability needs a personal best against the colts. Isn’t very big and therefore lacks scope for further improvement. Seen her in the paddock and can be a little madam. Had the beating of Anthem Alexander twice last year, but got beaten by the Irish filly here. imo Of all the magnificent seven – Hannon’s is the one to take on today. Anthem Alexander herslf has a good chance. Winner here in 2014 on similar ground. Patently needed her reapearance and stable have an outstanding Royal Ascot record.

    Champion two year old Limato blotted his copy book last time and written off by many afterwards. Trainer Henry Candy is a often a pessimist too. Saw Limato at Newbury last year and is a fluent mover. Haydock was on a lot softer ground and trainer in awful form at the time; in great form now! Hasn’t got size of the Yank; are horses catching up with him now? Possibly, but proved he’s trained on well at Ascot on reappearance. Out now to 6/1 across the board so will probably go 13/2. On form that looks outstanding value! :wacko:

    Adaay beat a below form Limato at Haydock, but if rate of improvement can be maintained could be right up with Limato’s best. The horse between those two at Ascot, Tendu is imo (and Tom Segal) over-priced. 16/1 was a terrific bet and 14’s still worth taking. Came with a really good run from the back, away from the winner that day; showing improved form. Dropped back to five furlongs last time, fell out of the stalls and just had too much to do. Back at six here and trainer in good form.

    The other horse with a chance is one I backed in the Greenham at a massive price, Muhaarar. Showed excellent speed there and undoubtedly has the speed for this furlong shorter trip. Didn’t stay in French Guineas. However, needs to step up again and – Dutch Connection apart – Charlie Hills hasn’t been in the best of form of late.

    My main bets are Limato and Tendu.

    value is everything
    • Total Posts 2254

    I’ve backed Limato, who now seems a big price considering he was trading at much shorter a few weeks ago.

    Obviously the Ryan Moore bandwagon isn’t so much up and running now as smashing everything in it’s path, so it’s not surprising that Hootenanny has been heavily punted, but I don’t see much juice in it’s price.Then again price seems irrelevant to Moore at the moment- he seems to win on everything he’s put up on.

    One other horse I’ve backed as well as Limato is Jungle Cat, who I think could go well at a huge price. Loves fast ground, finished second in the Coventry stakes and a close second to the much shorter in the betting Adaay at Newbury. Well drawn and quite fancy him to pull off a huge upset.

    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    • Total Posts 21095

    If Hootenanny gets any shorter I’ll be pulling on my laying pants.
    He can win yes but masses of dangers against him.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    • Total Posts 4596

    WOW!!! That was impressive but surely they went too fast early and fell into a hole.

    I must say I have never seen a Group One sprint where so many horses were out of their comfort zone so early!!

    It was like watching a race with Frankel in it LOL

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