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Just a thought…those judging horses on the basis of the Breakfast workouts might want to bear in mind how far from the inside rail they were on passing the post. The camber from that centre point to the rail is pretty severe.
Good point.
Just a thought…those judging horses on the basis of the Breakfast workouts might want to bear in mind how far from the inside rail they were on passing the post. The camber from that centre point to the rail is pretty severe.
Yes but Elm Park looked more awkward coming around the bend that he did up the home straight. He just didn’t look comfortable at all. That would be a worry for me especially as this will be the point when they are starting to really quicken in the big race on Saturday. I have already put a bullseye on Elm Park at 7-1 so still have some hopes for him and in some ways he fits the trends, having run at 7 furlongs at two (I think all of the last ten winners ran over seven furlongs as a two year old) but that track thing is worrying me.
I take your points see the sun about Jack Hobbs but the natural progression of the horse suggests to me that he could well be up to group one level. We’ll know more after Saturday.
On the subjects of stats and trends, hows this one? How about the good name theory?
Over the years the derby has been won by horses with fantastically lyrical names, like:
Nijinsky
Troy
Golden Fleece
Sharastani
Nashwan
Generous
Commander in Chief
and so on.
I just wonder if this is a coincidence. It seems to me that owners when naming a horse that they think might be a potential derby horse, reserve the best names they can think of for that horse.You are hardly going to call a horse who you think might win you a derby Joe Bloggs (or Jack Hobbs?
)The one that fits that particular trend this year I must admit is surely Golden Horn, which sounds rather like the 1982 winner of the derby and also something that might have come out of a George R R Martin book.
Perhaps it is taking credibility too far to suggest that Robert Oppenhiemer, ( I assume it was him who named the horse, not Gosden) far from being unsure about the horse’s ability to last the distance, always had this horse in mind as a potential derby winner?
If you were just going by names the only ‘naff’ names you’d rule out this year are Jack Hobbs and Rocky Rider. Unless you’re a cricket fan, of course, in which case Jack Hobbs would be a brilliant name.
If there was a runner called Muhammed Ali would we dismiss it as naff? How about Bobby Moore? Roger Federer?
The reason why ‘good’ names win the race is because most horses have good names.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
TAPK is single handedly forcing the Bookmakers to slash the odds of this years Derby Winner,yesterday I took all the 16/1,today its the 12/1 NRNB.This fellow goes off single figures on saturday like I’ve already stated so any double figure price has to be taken e/w of course.The Giovanni Canaletto train is seriously rolling now and I’m Casey Jones!
Looks like Ryan is going to be on board Giovanni, judging by the money coming.
Zawraq has had a set back after suffering a cut in his work. He’s out to 7/1 now.
8/1 is the biggest price on Giovanni Canaletto now and that is a ridiculous price.
Still punters are fickle creatures, the shorter he gets, the more they will want to be on. The obsession with the O’Brien yard is something to behold.
The horse has done nothing to enhance his claims but the odds are cut in half. At this rate he’ll be second favourite.
The King has got his hat on hip hip hip hooray…This is fast becoming TAPK’s legendary coup of all legendary coups Steve.You will see on Saturday just why I am the King of foresight.
They need to win to be a coup Gord. What we are seeing here is mug money coming for a horse because Ryan Moore is riding him.
It’s a poor Derby and Zawraq may be the latest crock to pull out and thin the quality further still but the reality is that Giovanni Canaletto is the lesser evil of three uninspiring Ballydoyle contenders. Hans Holbein won an uninspiring looking Chester Vase, from a maiden winner in second. That’s group 3 form. Kilimanjaro won a listed race where the 2/5 fav ran like a drain and couldn’t even finish second, beaten by a horse rated two stones lower. Hardly a surprise that Moore opted for a horse who has only won a maiden thus far but it says it all that about how poorly the other two must be regarded.
I see Bet Victor going 6/1 about Giovanni Canaletto and I think that is the worst piece of value I have seen in my life. Anyone taking that price should see a psychiatrist forthwith. The Racing Post Trophy winner from last season is two points bigger than a maiden winner beaten in a group 3 by a handicapper last time.
Aiden O Brien has admitted that they didn’t really want to fly this high with him at this stage and it’s a lack of a worthwhile alternative that sees these three forming a distinctly below average challenge.
Oh, Ryan’s picked Giovanni, better get down to the bookies quick and get the value.
In my opinion Ryan Moore’s selection boiled down to choosing between a yoke of oxen pulling a plough, a combine harvester and a Massey Ferguson tractor. It’s hardly a shocker that he will climb into the cab of the Massey Ferg, rather than join The Wurzels in a rousing rendition of “I’ve got a brand new Holbein harvester” or echoing Elton John by singing “I’m going back to my plough”
It’s a long and winding yellow brick road to Epsom but I’ll be Toto-ly amazed if Giovanni is the wizard on Saturday. The punters may have the courage and the heart, but they ain’t got the brain, that’s for sure!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If you were just going by names the only ‘naff’ names you’d rule out this year are Jack Hobbs and Rocky Rider. Unless you’re a cricket fan, of course, in which case Jack Hobbs would be a brilliant name.
If there was a runner called Muhammed Ali would we dismiss it as naff? How about Bobby Moore? Roger Federer?
The reason why ‘good’ names win the race is because most horses have good names.
Bumtrap won the Beverley Cup in 1809. It was on Bargain Hunt a few months ago, when they visited some posh house and the silver cup was on display.
Apparently a Bumtrap was someone whose job it was to catch poachers back in the day. It’s a glorious name and at the other end of the scale, I reckon the worst name I ever saw was Donnysnookercentre, from the mid eighties I think.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If you were just going by names the only ‘naff’ names you’d rule out this year are Jack Hobbs and Rocky Rider. Unless you’re a cricket fan, of course, in which case Jack Hobbs would be a brilliant name.
If there was a runner called Muhammed Ali would we dismiss it as naff? How about Bobby Moore? Roger Federer?
The reason why ‘good’ names win the race is because most horses have good names.
Do they? What about a typical race from Southwell, most of them have terrible names.
Looking at the field for this years Derby you have
Best of times (sounds too ordinary to win a derby, anyway won’t stay in a horsebox)
Carbon Dating (dreadful name, put a line through it)
Elm Park (sounds ok but nothing special)
Epicuris (doesn’t sound like a derby winner, but also not a terrible name)
Giovanni Canaletto (sounds like an icecream)
Golden Horn (sounds like a derby winner)
Hans Holbein (too predictable an ordinary name for a derby winner)
Kilimanjaro (see above)
Moheet (dreadful name, put a line through it)
Rocky Rider (even worse)
Rogue Runner (see above)
Storm the stars (sounds like it’s sire sea the stars, but doesn’t have quite the same spark to it)
Success Days (sounds too ordinary to be a derby winner)
Zarwaq (exotic arab type name, possible)
I agree this is hardly scientific and would have fallen down in the years when the mediocre sounding workforce or high-rise won, for example (or benny the dip) but there is some logic behind it. If you have a young horse that has shown some promise on the gallops and is well-bred, then you give it a good name. It’s not always possible to come up with an excellent name for every horse. So you save the best for the best!
I’ve just bought a 2 year old horse called Destruction Derby. should I enter him for 2016?
To add a bit of culture, I believe Golden Horn is named after an estuary/inlet of the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Giovanni Canaletto is named after the Italian painter and Hans Holbein (“The Younger”) is named after a German painter from the 16th century.
Always expect the unexpected.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
TAPK is single handedly forcing the Bookmakers to slash the odds of this years Derby Winner,yesterday I took all the 16/1,today its the 12/1 NRNB.This fellow goes off single figures on saturday like I’ve already stated so any double figure price has to be taken e/w of course.The Giovanni Canaletto train is seriously rolling now and I’m Casey Jones!Looks like Ryan is going to be on board Giovanni, judging by the money coming.
Zawraq has had a set back after suffering a cut in his work. He’s out to 7/1 now.
8/1 is the biggest price on Giovanni Canaletto now and that is a ridiculous price.
Still punters are fickle creatures, the shorter he gets, the more they will want to be on. The obsession with the O’Brien yard is something to behold.
The horse has done nothing to enhance his claims but the odds are cut in half. At this rate he’ll be second favourite.
The King has got his hat on hip hip hip hooray…This is fast becoming TAPK’s legendary coup of all legendary coups Steve.You will see on Saturday just why I am the King of foresight.
They need to win to be a coup Gord. What we are seeing here is mug money coming for a horse because Ryan Moore is riding him.
Dont think for one minute this gamble on Giovanni Canaletto is public money Steve,this is a serious stable coup taking place here,one that will surpass that of ‘Gleneagles’ in the 2000gns.Those of us with foresight knew Ryan would ride and we took every double figure price going,those who excel in Hindsight will see the price of the horse was 8/1 before it was confirmed Ryan would ride.
Ladbrokes have been shortest about GC for some time, suggesting they’ve had hints all along that he’s a lot better than his recent run or that maybe Moore ha reservations about HH.
Ladbrokes must be getting plenty of hints then…as they are shortest on the first 3 in the betting and 5 out of the first 6.
The magic sign are clearly ‘in the know’.<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
TAPK is single handedly forcing the Bookmakers to slash the odds of this years Derby Winner,yesterday I took all the 16/1,today its the 12/1 NRNB.This fellow goes off single figures on saturday like I’ve already stated so any double figure price has to be taken e/w of course.The Giovanni Canaletto train is seriously rolling now and I’m Casey Jones!Looks like Ryan is going to be on board Giovanni, judging by the money coming.
Zawraq has had a set back after suffering a cut in his work. He’s out to 7/1 now.
8/1 is the biggest price on Giovanni Canaletto now and that is a ridiculous price.
Still punters are fickle creatures, the shorter he gets, the more they will want to be on. The obsession with the O’Brien yard is something to behold.
The horse has done nothing to enhance his claims but the odds are cut in half. At this rate he’ll be second favourite.
The King has got his hat on hip hip hip hooray…This is fast becoming TAPK’s legendary coup of all legendary coups Steve.You will see on Saturday just why I am the King of foresight.
They need to win to be a coup Gord. What we are seeing here is mug money coming for a horse because Ryan Moore is riding him.
Dont think for one minute this gamble on Giovanni Canaletto is public money Steve,this is a serious stable coup taking place here,one that will surpass that of ‘Gleneagles’ in the 2000gns.Those of us with foresight knew Ryan would ride and we took every double figure price going,those who excel in Hindsight will see the price of the horse was 8/1 before it was confirmed Ryan would ride.
Stevie Wonder could see Ryan was going to ride. The other two are poor candidates. I doubt we are looking at a Barney Curley move here, even if we are, you don’t get paid out on losers.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anyone remember Gypsy King winning the Dee Stakes by a short head from a 33/1 outsider, before going off a ridiculous 7/2 2nd Fav in Motivator’s year?
Was that serious stable money? Or seriously unstable punters?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anyone remember Gypsy King winning the Dee Stakes by a short head from a 33/1 outsider, before going off a ridiculous 7/2 2nd Fav in Motivator’s year?
Was that serious stable money? Or seriously unstable punters?
‘Gypsey King’ was quoted at 6/1 for The Derby after his Chester victory thats hardly a gamble! ‘Giovanni’ was quoted at 50’s after getting beat at The Curragh and was still 20’s this week,thats a gamble Steve..Yo need to try harder to get one over me pal.
On the subjects of stats and trends, hows this one? How about the good name theory?
Over the years the derby has been won by horses with fantastically lyrical names, like:
Nijinsky
Troy
Golden Fleece
Sharastani
Nashwan
Generous
Commander in Chief
and so on.
Seven names going back 45 years? One ‘good’ one every 6-and-a-bit years? Is this really the basis of a good system?
Obviously it’s entirely subjective and not meant to be taken seriously but what was lyrical or whatever about any of the names since Commander In Chief?
Ladbrokes must be getting plenty of hints then…as they are shortest on the first 3 in the betting and 5 out of the first 6.
The magic sign are clearly ‘in the know’.They have a direct line to Coolmore. Obviously there will be plenty of horses in plenty of races they would prefer to avoid. They’re just accountants nowadays but more informed people than me have been telling us for years they are very close to the Coolmore operation. They were shortest about HH until GC re-emerged as a market positive in the past few days.
I suspect the gamble is down to inside information that Moore was favouring GC. He’s probably faster than HH as he should be, based on breeding, but it wouldn’t be the first time the Coolmore ‘best’ horse hasn’t won (Hawk Wing, anyone?) That said, I have a very nice price and am looking forward to laying it off.
Whether GC now represents value is again questionable but I think you have to respect that he is representing the most formidable operation on the planet.
I don’t imagine any of the bookies have taken massive amounts of money for GC. I don’t believe it is a genuine gamble. It’s info getting out Moore and the bookies reacting accordingly, preempting public money and minimising their liability.
They don’t have a ‘direct line’ to Coolmore, that theory was disproved years ago.
They are shortest on just about everything, always.
Classic ‘survivor bias’.Good luck with your bet
The shortening of GC is a good thing for anyone waiting till Friday/Saturday to back one. I say GC to go favourite and push Golden Horn out to a nice tidy each way price. (I’ll even take 7/2 each way)
Pretty please!ps – not saying GC wont win, but I cannot go near him for obvious form reasons.
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