Forum Replies Created
- Posts
I love the detailed write up and so just to pay some respect to the regular effort you put into your research and posts, I shall follow you in!
Grands Crus was undeniably impressive- as has been mentioned, horses seldom win three-mile races in that fashion after pulling so hard- but I wouldn’t give up on Bensalem just yet.
For a horse who nearly died from pneumonia last year, this was a most encouraging return to action. He was hacking behind the leaders, travelling just as easily as Grands Crus, most of the way and simply couldn’t go with the winner down the hill as lack of condition told. While it’s difficult to see him reversing the form in just under seven weeks’ time, he’ll certainly come on enormously for the race and, at 33s, looks excellent each-way value for the World Hurdle; after all, he finished ahead of Mourad at Punchestown in April after a write-off of a season, yet that opponent is only 10-1 for the Cheltenham feature.
I have watched the race a couple of times now and would agree that Bensalem blew up – Despite that though, Grand Crus looked visually very good.
I cannot see SE or GS troubling Big Zeb tomorrow. I am sure Sizing Europe will appreciate the sharper trip but Big Zeb has done nothing wrong. A few weeks ago I took some 7/2 for Big Zeb in the Champion Chase. Time wise he was very impressive last year, I think Masterminded would have his work cut out and I cannot see anything else I think is in the same quality bracket.
Arguably the most exciting performance of the season – you just don’t see horses pull like that and still win in a canter. The World Hurdle now definitely looks a two horse race and given a strong gallop every chance Big Bucks is going to have to dig pretty deep to retain his crown.
I was supporting Grand Crus but that was surprisingly easy
5/2 on Punchestowns is a right result! I cannot have him at close to evens because if either Tidal Bay or Neptune Collonges return to their best sort of form, they will make it a proper race. I am particularly interested in Neptune, I hope the horse has not lost confidence or heart, I would like to think it has a big race left in it.
Local Hero for me – 2/1 seems generous to me – Can’t get too stuck in but hopefully a great start to the Cheltenham card
I think this is gonna be a tight one.
The market is looking spot on at the moment, Grand Crus is looking a potential star, Spirit River is 2 for 3 around Cheltenham with the step up in distance and going back over hurdles sure to benefit and Bensalem has excellent form with some top names and the yard is hot as mustard although he hasn’t got his head in front in a while.
I can’t choose between the 3, so I’ll be backing the 0 for 5 around Cheltenham Knockara Beau, each-way at 33’s.
Really looking forward to seeing how this plays out.
Im with you on Knockara – It might just remember what it is meant to be about going hurdling again. 33s is big. Of the more likely sorts, Grand Crus for me – Bensalems pure form is probably better but how ready is he for this?
Anyone know the what the weathers like up there?
I’m really looking forward to tomorrow and won’t bother getting up early if it’s not going ahead.
Cheers
all going ahead. Fifteen miles to the north it is cold and grey. Light breeze. Take your brandy flask!
I like to see a novice do it at Cheltenham before getting too stuck in. That is why I like the chances of two – Champion Court and Bobs Worth.
Champion Court was lined up to run in Ireland a few days back, I cannot remember where – He got pulled from it, I think the ground might have been heavy. Nothing wrong with these conditions and it is going to carry the burden of my betting slip!
We had this thread a few weeks back, and it was an enjoyable way to pass the afternoon on and hopefully find some winners.
Although we’ve lost Donny to Jack Frost, Cheltenham has been given the go ahead – and thank Christ it has because its a cracking card.
The first race is at 12:55, and hopefully we can start with a winner.
Good luck all!!
I like the look of the favourite in the opener. Maybe Local Hero can make it a great start for me. Just looks the most accomplished at this stage. Good luck.
I like two of the three Mullins horses lining up. Pomme Tiepy and the Midnight Club for me. Pushed, I would prefer the latter as I think this was the horse who caught the eye in these conditions.
Jocking bookings suggest Pomme Tiepy is the stable main threat though and so I shall take a saver on that.
Interesting to see quite a few people having The Midnight Club as a national horse. I am not sure about that, I think he needs more cut than he is likely to get at Aintree.
I think Masterminded will win. Not only does he look back to his best this year but he is a better quality horse than any of the rest.
Somersby has probably got a big race in him but I think he wants a bit further.
Crack Away Jack is my value selection. Emma Lavelle seems pretty bullish that he is fit. He goes well fresh as he has shown in the past and if he had not missed the kick then he would have been the 2009 champion hurdle winner. 16/1 is very fair as an each way proposition.
I would still think MM has to fail for Crack Away Jack or anything else to win though.
As for Cheltenham mind, too many overlook Big Zeb. I think that is the ante post bet of the moment for me. 7/2 suggests he is a definite second fiddle to MM. He might be but on similar ground his champion chase was quicker than either of Mastermindeds – Easy to be romantic about Mastermindeds soaring leaps which are breathtaking but Big Zeb has done nothing wrong.
An arb has developed in Riverside Theatre each way – get on quick at 16-1 and 1/4 the odds a place before it goes. Betfair is 17.5/1 win and 2.8/1 place.
Riverside Theatre is also my idea of the value bet – 4 from 4 on course and I have always thought that this one has a big race in him.
I would dearly tear up that 16/1 ticket though to see Kauto do it. I think the 4/6 price is probably about right as nothing else in the race is close to any of Kautos good runs.
I did think the Down Royal run was a bit workmanlike though. I know Nicholls doesn’t have them tuned up for the first run but some of the spark looks missing.
I want him to win and win in a style reflective of his superstar status. Kauto has given so many heartleaping moments to racegoers, this could be his swan song as I don’t think he will be able to win his Gold Cup back again, that would be a step too hard. The King George was made for him though.
Heart, Kauto, Head, Riverside ew, Pocket, Pepe Simo in the 12.20!!
Despite Paul Nicholl’s protestations to the contrary,
Watamu Bay
is probably quite well handicapped for this. He’s certainly no worse off than the same trainer’s Aiteen Thirtythree (OR 148) who handed Voramar Two a very similar beating. Guaranteed laid out as well, as PN won with him twice in 10 days to get his mark for this, even though both he and his (then) jockey believe he needs time between his races.
Will stay all day, the softer the ground the better, his capable claimer reduces his weight to 10.12., and at 10/1 generally, looks a solid e.w. bet in what strikes as a below standard renewal.This is my selection too – I like the profile, more to come I think from Watuma Bay and because its Nicholls, the experience issue is not as serious in my view.
Cooldine, J’y Vole and Pandorama for me – Mullins will have his two tuned up and the yard are in good enough form – Conditions no problem. Towends had a winner on track today… Wouldn’t want to go shorter than 7/2 though.
At odds on I think I have to side against. his reappearance while workmanlike was far below the form he has previously shown – OK it is a reappearance but he just looks jaded to me – Hope I am wrong. Overall there is a reason no horse has won 5 KGs yet and I am not convinced this is going to be the year that record goes. Riverside Theatre is the one for me – Anything 12s and over seems reasonable.
