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I do not understand why connections think firming ground will be a problem, I think Sea Moon will cope fine if no rain arrives. 2/1 seems generous for a colt that destroyed the Great Voltigeur field and was eased down. If Seville ran to form that day (which is a question) then a repeat of the York running and Sea Moon wins. I think there is enough priced into 2/1 to allow for those doubts.
The other I like the price of is 14/1 Brown Panther. There is not a lot between BP, Masked Marvels and Census and so since they are 14/1, 9/1 and 6/1 accordingly I am going to take a slice of Brown Panther today and hope that Kieran Fallon can eake out a few bonus lengths!!
I like Brown Panther. You have to forgive the German run but that was in desperate ground. The Ascot handicap looked amazing and if returning to that form I think 5/1 will be huge.
In the Great St Wilfred, I am all about Fathsta who will like the ground, has the favourable low draw and I fancy this one at 12/1.
Bet of the day is in the football for me though. Bolton are 23/10 with Victor Chandler to win at QPR….
well I am going to try and get Frankel beaten. He is a star but I wonder if he might boil over a bit. He does look uncontrollable at times.
Grand Prix Wonder is my 20/1 ew shot, who knows what a lot of the form adds up to but it is an effort coming over
Its always value. We do not know the winner of anything before it happens. If you only selected the most likely winner of each event, you would 95% be backing favourites.
In any event, where is this old boy – I want his selections!!
Tough question! IT is a bit like asking Curry or Chinese?
I went with Cheltenham. If I had to never go to one again, I could not bring myself to miss the buzz of Prestbuty Park on Champion Hurdle day
Misty for me also has a bit more experience than many. I am on at 8s – Wonder of wonders has a reputation but Misty has produced on the track.
Blue Bunting may well be better with an extra 4f as breeding and many astute judges suspect but there is plenty of slip between the crouch and the leap.
HAPPY KENTUCKY DERBY DAY!
Good luck to you – Soldat for me – 14/1. Dialed In might be very good but if the weather is bad, it could all easily go against.
I think the favourite is a stand out in the rqace for me. 13/2 is a decent price, right profile, as the earlier poster commented, AP comes here instead of Punchestown. Higgys Ragazzo is only a 4yo but the Cheltenham run looks solid enough and if on the improve could be involved. Poorer standard this year.
quality posts chaps.
My money is carried by Music Show. The presence of the pacemaker will be a great benefit. Cityscape I think is uncertain to fancy the rattling ground, Dick Turpin has enough quality but at the prices 9/2 Music Show for me.
With the current fav, Arbor Supreme is well weighted, a true stayer too – Hope he is OK on the ground and my 20/1 pick could go well!!
Kalahari King and Somersby don’t convince me although the latter looks better suited to a step up in trip.
I think it is down to Masterminded and Albertas Run who for me are the two best quality horses in the field. Head says Albertas as I agree that MM is better fresh and ground might not be ideal. Heart and wallet will probably go with MM!
Hope Zarkandar absolutely bolts up, had a treble at chelts with Zarkandar, Bobs Worth and Baby Run and Baby Run messed it up, I think Carlito Brigante could cause a big surprise to Big Bucks, its the time again when we get Jim Mcgrath with his dodgy calls of fallers or horses in general.
I thought Zarkander could not lose. It was an example of being wrong but getting the right result!
I thought Denman was a shocking bet and went for Punchestown. I was right in the first bit but went for the wrong opponent.
I am all about Gio Ponti – 12/1 with Corals – I thought it ran well last year after being given too much to do – I am not too worried about the lack of prep run. Got to fell sorry for Twice Over – The draw has a great chance of getting it beat.
There are lots of questions but Long Run for me is the only progressive sort in with a major chance.
Champion Hurdle
This should be the race of the meeting, possibly the decade. There is a realistic case to be made for all of the first 7 in the betting. Menorah showed he has guts as well as speed with a brilliant weight carrying performance in the Greatwood Hurdle earlier this year and easily dispatched top novices Cue Card and Silvanico Conti in the International hurdle. The flip side is both the above appear stayers in the making and he has yet to beat a rival that could be considered a realistic contender for this race. Similarily Mille Chief won a good handicap under a big weight but struggled home against a horse who wouldnt be near this class next time out. Oscar Whiskey is a tad unlucky in that he probably falls between stools and ideally wants 2m4f.
Dunguib was last years talking horse but his poor hurdling and a ‘funny’ ride saw him come up short. His comeback run although not that impressive to the eye, if you take Luska Lad as a yardstick (usually gives his running) the form is not that far off what Hurricane Fly has shown this year and he may be a lively outsider.
Binocular is an enigma. He was impressive last year although the race looked to lack depth and he has never run a bad race at the festival. Ive a feeling he’s never had to deal with the likes of the 2 potential superstars in the field this year.
Hurricane Fly has the effortless look of a champion about. Fragile but brilliant he’s the winner of 9 out of his 11 races over hurdles. Most in the top grade. Of his two defeats ,one came when a novice in his native France and the other when returning from a long layoff and even then it was a respectable 3rd in a Grade 1. Has yet to face this kind of a test but everything in his makeup and breeding suggest he should relish it(Group winning son of Montjeu over staying trips on flat).Will take something very special to beat him.
That could very well be Peddlers Cross. As yet unbeaten over a variety of trips from 2m to 2m5f. Looked a certain future stayer when a gutsy winner of the 2m5 novice at last years festival beating the experienced Reve De Siviola and Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage. He returned this year over 2m and proved he is at least equally effective over that trip slamming reigning champ Binocular and Starluck under conditions more suited to speed than stamina. Not overly impressive in a bloodless prep win although he’s not the type to noticeably quicken and just keeps pulling out more off the bridle. If he kicks for home early off the turn the rest are in serious trouble as it’ll take a tough customer to peg him back.Could not have put it better – All credence to the fly. I was on Peddlers but at the turn could see the Fly ahd him. If Peddlers had (for arguments sake) 5l improvement, the fly would still have got there imho.
Selection: Peddlers Cross
R F/C Peddlers Cross/Hurricane Fly
Thought Peddlers would outbattle him but The Fly looks the real deal. Binny woulda been beat here too imo.
Sometimes you can over analyse – Cue Card has the form on paper and for me is the bet to get the festival off to a flyer.
At a price of 25/1 I think Marsh Warbler might be harder to peg back than many might think, if given some rope on the likely very good ground, it could hang on to finish up with them.
With Hidden Universe, Marsh Warbler and a few other known front runners though, you would hope that it is set up for a showdown between Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card – At the prices, Cue Card to be finishing the strongest for me – good luck.
WIth the champ out of the way this race is between Kyber Kim and Thousand Stars. BAcked them both to win at good odds so cant lose.
Great pay day for you if you are right.
Personally I think it is between the three at the head of the market. Of them, I prefer the 9/2 for Peddlers Cross. His record is superb, preparation sound, Maguire on board is a big plus and course form. Menorah is a class animal but not having run for so long (I often question the value of some trends but that one makes sense as he his going into the fastest hurdle race there is with no prep run), Hurricane Fly is a lovely horse but I am not sure of the form with Solwhit and no record at Cheltenham is a concern. Peddlers for me, good luck.
