- This topic has 68 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
A short tale for you all.
An elderly man, very wise and an astute reader of horse racing form, studies the day’s cards in the hope of finding a few decent betting opportunities.
He studies only races that he is comfortable with – in his case, Listed and Group 3 only races. He selects these types of races because he believes that often he can spot horses that are underestimated when taking a step up in class. On this day he finds just one race to study, and after a long morning of perusing the form book, reading his own notes, and checking all the statistical data that he needs he comes up with his selection. He calculates his SPs for the race and decides his selection is worth a bet at 7/2 or above; anything less and he won’t touch it.
Remember, this is a very wise man and he knows his stuff. If at any point during his form reading he feels a race is too difficult to call then he gives up, he won’t arrive at a selection. What this means then is that the man in question doesn’t often come up with a selection, but when he does he is extremely confident about the horse winning.
The man checks the internet to find the price of his selection and he is delighted to see 4/1, but not one to use the internet to place his bets he gets ready and goes down to his local bookmakers. He arrives at the bookies five minutes before the race, and he sees that his selection is now 9/4. “The price has gone”, he says to himself and doesn’t place a wager, and then calmly watches his selection win.
He trudges home a little despondent because that’s the fourth winner he has let go in the last fortnight because the ‘price wasn’t right’.
Once home the man decides to take a look at his records, and his last 20 selections read as follows;
Won @ 9/4
Won @ 15/8
Won @ 11/4
Lost @ 2/1
*Lost @ 5/4
Won @ 6/4
*Won @ 5/2
*Lost @ 7/2
Lost @ 11/4
Won @ 6/1
Won @ 11/4
*Won @ 5/4
Won @ 3/1
*Lost @ 5/1
Lost @ Evens
*Won @ 2/1
Won @ 7/2
*Lost @ 9/2
*Won @ 7/4
Won @ 10/3The selections marked by an * are the ones that the man actually placed a bet on as they were at a price equal or bigger than what he had calculated it should be. All the other selections were at a shorter price than what he had calculated, and were therefore left alone.
– From his last 20 selections, 13 won resulting in (what would have been) a level stake profit of £274.55 to a £10 stake (137.3% profit).
– From the eight he wagered on, four won resulting in a level stake profit of £35 to a £10 stake (43.75% profit).
The old man glanced through years and years of records, and the results were all very similar. He had an excellent record at finding winners but was losing out by not backing each and every one of them, regardless of price.
He came to a very simple conclusion. He would much rather back a winner at the wrong price than back a loser at the right price, and as he went to bed that evening he muttered to himself, “Value is nothing, winners are everything”.
Your thoughts?
I tend to agree with this tale (I didn’t write it by the way). So many people go on about value – and I respect each and every one of them – but surely a winner is a winner regardless of price.
I no longer bet on horse races but I do bet on most other sports, and if for example I fancy a golfer to win a tournament I will back him at the best price I can get, it’s as simple as that. I backed Luke Donald a few weeks ago at the PGA Championship despite him being no bigger than 8/1 in a 150 runner-field. Yet I read many previews about how his price was too short. Who made a profit that week, me or the guys who backed someone else because Donald’s price was too short?
I dare say the ‘value’ approach is more down to probability, whereas my approach is simply to find the most likely winner of an event and back it accordingly if I’m confident enough. Perhaps the two approaches – value and a winner is a winner – shouldn’t be compared.
Everyone uses value to one extent or another, either subconsciously or not. Some are just less a slave to it than others.
Take Frankel for example. You won’t meet many who don’t think he will win on Tuesday. But not everyone will back him at the 4/11 or whatever he is at the moment. If he was 11/4 though nearly everyone would back him. So, without compiling a tissue, a lot of people would consider the 4/11 NOT value but would consider 11/4 as VALUE.
Likewise take Luke Donald. You backed him at 8/1 – well done. If he was 4/1 would you have backed him? What about 2/1 or evs. Again, without actually compiling a tissue, you have subconsciously decided that the 8/1 is value.
You don’t need a tissue to determine value but it probably helps
I’m with you DB, thank you for that.
You’re right, I wouldn’t have backed Luke Donald at 2/1 or whatever because without forming a tissue, in my mind I had an idea he’d be somewhere close to the price he was. To be honest though, I thought he’d be 10/1 or even 12/1, so what I’m trying to say is that the ‘lesser’ price shouldn’t put us off. A winner is a winner after all.
But yes, I completely understand what you are saying and concur with it.
The greater the odds you obtain the less dependent you are on realising a high strike rate. Whatever profit you make on an even money chance it’s wiped out with your next loser. It’s easier said than done but a decent strike rate is essential for profit.
I think Davidbrady is right in that a lot of it is subconscious. For example, I backed Monsieur Chevalier for the Kings Stand today at 40/1, because I think he has a decent chance of placing.
However, would I back him at 4/1? Hell no. At 40/1, I don’t need him to place every time: one winner at 25/1 makes a profit even if you’ve had 24 losers to the same stake.
Therefore I think value does come into it, for me anyway, although I don’t live by it.
Value is nonesense as a betting strategy IMO. Winners is everything…losing money should always avoided
The old man’s strike rate improves to 65% from 50% if he backed all his fancies at whatever price offered. A 50% strike rate is of no use if the odds taken average out at evens or less so I can see his point in looking for value but on the other hand his policy loses him winners.
I think most people are somewhere between the two.
For instance, I rarely bet odds on (Hurricane Fly at Punchestown was the first odds-on single bet I’d had since erm, Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown in December), and if a race I want to bet in has a short priced favourite, I’ll take a look at the race and see if there’s something else I want to bet on!
Actually, I’m sure there’s a fair few people who have a similar approach!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
If winners are everything, then at level stakes what would you rather have:
A) A 50% strike rate at an average price of 4/5?
Or
B) A 25% strike rate at an average price of 4/1?I’d rather have (B) half as many winners as (A) at 4/1 myself.
In 100 bets of 1 point a punter with a record of
(A)
would be
10 points down
. Returning 90 points.
In 100 bets
(B)
would be
25 points up
. Returning 125 points.
Value Is EverythingPeople are confusing "value" with "short priced" horses.
Any 3/1 shot can be value if the punter believes it has a better than 25% chance.
Any 1/3 shot can be value if a punter believes it has a better than 75% chance.
Value betting is not about backing horses at big odds, it’s about horses of any price which are thought to have a better chance of winning than its price indicates.
There are many "value" punters who specialise in odds-on betting.
In the story of post 1, the man did not make a profit because he
did not
get value.
Value Is EverythingSurely it the staking plan that needs to be looked at. If your price for backing a horse was say 3-1 and you could get 10-1, the surely you would want to have more money on then another 3-1 chance offered at 10/3.
Of course you are right Lewey, when something is brilliant value stakes should be higher. I am just illustrating why value matters.
Point is if a punter thinks a horse has a 25% chance of winning why would the punter back it at less than 3/1? With any amount of stake.
Value Is EverythingAny 3/1 shot can be value if the punter believes it has a better than 25% chance.
Any 1/3 shot can be value if a punter believes it has a better than 75% chance.
Exactly !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
To those who think like Oneeye, winners matter, value is nothing.
Let me quote from an book about the subject of finding value.
“Most people with a good grasp of statistics can devise a betting system which appears profitable on paper. But none of us are in the lucky position of being able to place bets after the results is known. We must search for the answer before a race is run.
Asked what is the secret of successful betting most punters will reply picking winners, which is a logical answer, but one which tells half the story.
Long term, successful betting involves backing the right horse at the right odds. Only one of these two variables is completely known before a race is run – the odds. And odds are the source of value.
Value in betting is an elusive commodity, a little like the mythical gold in them there hills. You dearly want to get hold of it, but it is mighty difficult to finding it.
Value remains hidden, but it can be tracked down with detective – like cunning and snapped up before the next man comes along.
Spotting value on a horse race takes a combination of aptitude and experience. The real shrewdies have an instinctive flair for it, but all punters can succeed by sticking to the basics.
Horse racing are devilish complicated affairs. Apart from the runners, you’ve got going, trainers, jockeys, draw if flat, and so much more besides to take into account when trying to find value.
Many punters seem suspicious of value. Thinking that a odds on winner is better than a 10/1 loser. This is true, of course, but again it is simply being wise after the event. The trick, of course, is to be wise before the event.
[b:14xgojwc]Successful punters think in terms of chances, not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.[/b:14xgojwc]”
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.