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FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER JOCKEY OR
4211- Cityscape 5 9-0 R Charlton S Drowne 119
22153- Dick Turpin 4 9-0 R Hannon R Hughes 124
62018- Dream Eater 6 9-0 A Balding J Fortune 116
6365-0 Highland Knight 4 9-0 A Balding L Keniry 87
41234- Music Show 4 8-11 M Channon R Moore 118To my eyes Dick Turpin is the standout performer in this field. He won first time out last year when beating Canford Cliffs. He once again finished ahead of that rival in the 2000 Guineas, before Canford go the better of him in the St James Palace. He finally won the Group 1 he deserved when winning the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly. He is a miler out of the top drawer. A straightforward ride, it’s hard to see the small field being any great inconvenience to him tomorrow. He’ll enjoy the ground and on official ratings he has 3 lbs to spare over Music Show.
Music Show would appear to be the main danger. She was unlucky in the 1000 Guineas last year when caught on the wrong side, but gained a Group 1 success when beating Spacious in the Falmouth. She looked like a class act that day but in my opinion Spacious and Lillie Langtry (if I remember correctly) went off far too quick allowing Music Show to swoop with a strong late run for an easy victory. Both those rivals since reversed the form in the Matron and I feel she may have been somewhat fortunate to gain that win.
Cityscape improved all of last season, culminating in a seven length win over Penitent at Newmarket in October. While that was an excellent effort, this is a much tougher test. Also, one wonders if he may be more effective with a bit of cut in the ground. Dream Eater has some decent efforts to his name, including when third behind Goldikova and Paco Boy in the Queen Anne last year, but he rarely gets his head in front and this looks plenty hot enough. Highland Knight looks out of his depth.
The current prices: Dick Turpin 5/6, Music Show 4/1, Cityscape 9/2, Dream Eater 7/1, Highland Knight 100/1.
I reckon that the 4/5 about Dick Turpin is excellent value, I’d see him as a 4/7 shot.
If Dick can’t win that i be disappointed.
The John Porter Group 3 is it? next race is more interesting for me
Only a small field, but an intriguing race, nonetheless.
Dick Turpin and Music Show compiled similar efforts last season.
Dick Turpin won the Greenham before finishing runner-up at Newmarket and Chantilly. He was placed three times at the highest level, but gained a deserved Group One success in the Prix Jean Prat.
Music Show won the Nell Gwyn and finished third in the Irish 1000 Guineas. She was also placed on three occasions at the highest level, but claimed Group One success in the Falmouth.
Cityscape has always threatened to be a major force at eight furlongs, and finished last season registering back to back victories. His Newmarket success at Group Three level was very impressive and there’s arguably more to come from this lightly raced sort.
Dreameater is an admirable sort, often falling short of the standard set by Dick Turpin and Music Show in the past, but finished a sound third in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot last year.
Connections of Dreameater appear to have entered Highland Knight as a pacemaker.
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Dick Turpin is a worthy favourite and clearly sets the standard in a race that Richard Hannon is attempting to win for the sixth time in eight years.
He won first time out last year, as did Music Show, and Cityscape won at Haydock towards the end of last season after a four month absence.
The pace is sure to be decent, which should suit both Dick Turpin and Music Show. The latter is of interest on this ground in receipt of her allowance.
I think both Dick Turpin and Cityscape would prefer slighly easier conditions, but they have secured victories on quick ground.
Dick Turpin should prove too good, but Music Show should not be underestimated.
Nice preview, thm.
Only a small field, but an intriguing race, nonetheless.
Dick Turpin and Music Show compiled similar efforts last season.
Dick Turpin won the Greenham before finishing runner-up at Newmarket and Chantilly. He was placed three times at the highest level, but gained a deserved Group One success in the Prix Jean Prat.
Music Show won the Nell Gwyn and finished third in the Irish 1000 Guineas. She was also placed on three occasions at the highest level, but claimed Group One success in the Falmouth.
Cityscape has always threatened to be a major force at eight furlongs, and finished last season registering back to back victories. His Newmarket success at Group Three level was very impressive and there’s arguably more to come from this lightly raced sort.
Dreameater is an admirable sort, often falling short of the standard set by Dick Turpin and Music Show in the past, but finished a sound third in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot last year.
Connections of Dreameater appear to have entered Highland Knight as a pacemaker.
——————————————————————
Dick Turpin is a worthy favourite and clearly sets the standard in a race that Richard Hannon is attempting to win for the sixth time in eight years.
He won first time out last year, as did Music Show, and Cityscape won at Haydock towards the end of last season after a four month absence.
The pace is sure to be decent, which should suit both Dick Turpin and Music Show. The latter is of interest on this ground in receipt of her allowance.
I think both Dick Turpin and Cityscape would prefer slighly easier conditions, but they have secured victories on quick ground.
Dick Turpin should prove too good, but Music Show should not be underestimated.
Interesting write ups THM and Bos, here is how I see it:
Dick Turpin won first time up at both 2 and 3, but ditto Music Show. Both stay a mile and go well on a firm surface. So has Dick Turpin really got around 3 times the chance of Music Show, like the betting suggests? I don’t think so. Channon has started the season well and won 4 of his last 13 starts. Hannon 2 from 13. So it just comes down to form.
Music Show
‘s has had a break, after a busy season last year. Won the Falmouth on similar ground to tomorrow, form that on a line through Rainfall and Strawberrydaqueri, should have been good enough to win the Sun Chariot too. Although she herself was over the top by then. Also won the 1000 Guineas, well sort of, she won on her side of the track. Massively disadvantaged by the draw / running down the centre. Music Show was the moral victor.
Dick Turpin
‘s form is a little better, against the colts, but only a little. Won the Prix Jean Prat and his defeats were just as good. Placed in the Guineas; flattered in the Foret, only a length behind Goldicova, 1/2 length behind Paco Boy. Length second behind Canford Cliffs also sounds great, but only 3/4 length in front of Hearts Of Fire, illustrates Canford Cliffs improvement to come. Even so Dick Turpin has definitely got the best chance of winning, just not an odds-on chance.
Cityscape
was the one improving at the back end, winning the Joel Stakes by no less than 7 lengths from Penitent. Exceptionally good looking individual who is now filling his frame, finally endorsing the potential of his earlier years. I backed him for the 2000 Guineas ante-post. Injured in that race. Trouble is, the Joel came on a soft surface and it is possible Cityscape needs cut to produce his best these days. However, did come a good 4th under top weight in a Newbury handicap on reappearance last year on a firm surface, given a lot to do on first start in ages. So there are reasons to be hopeful. If it were soft ground though, he’d be challenging for favouritism.
Dream Eater
is inconsistent taking his over all form, but usually runs well early season. Flattered to finish so close to Goldicova and Paco Boy in the Queen Anne. Trouble free run when former went for home too early and latter had to wait for a gap. Usually travels well but sometimes finds little off the bridle. Has run well in this race before and goes well on a firm surface.
Forget the pacemaker.Backing 3 horses in a 5 horse race may seem a bit strange. But I make the race:
Dick Turpin 42% 11/8
Music Show 23.5% 100/30
Cityscape 21% 4/1
Dream Eater 13.25% 13/2Highland Knight 0.25% 400/1
Backed
Music Show @ 9/2
with savers on Cityscape almost 5/1 and Dream Eater almost 17/2.
I think Dick Turpin will drift.
Of course, if DT does win I can say I got it right, with him having by far the best chance of winning, even on my figures.
Value Is EverythingHey guys,
Thought i’d put in my 2 cents on this one aswell
Ok i go through everything i see as important and then star rank the horses based on each category this will give me an idea which horse has the best chance of winning and if could be good value to bet on.
Ok so to start with the first thing i’ve looked at today was distance.Now all horses have ran the distance but something quite concerning for me was the fact
is the only one not to win at this distance.
,
and
have all won 14.2% of there races at this distance however,
has won 37.5% at 8f.
Going – My two concerns were
and
. In my opinion there best form has been on softer ground so i think the faster ground could be a worry for them. On this basis i would Remove
for any further consideration.
Form –
,
and
are all showing pretty decent, recent form. However,
Highland Knight
Looks like has been strugglign as of late and this is with company of a lot less ability than the other 3. So on this basis i will also remove
from selection.
Ok so just to recap we have 3 Horses Left.
Dick Turpin
Cityscape
Music ShowTrainer Form (Credit goes to Ginger for now looking at this.)
I’ve reviewed the trainers form for the whole of april to see how they are doing this month. I’ve done this absed on win strike rate.Comes out on top for this one then
and then
Class – Basically i look at the amount of money won and divide it by the wins for the certain type of race.Ie all Chase wins or all Hurdle wins etc.
is showing as the best in this catergory with
a cloes second and then
Ok now personally heres how i see it between these 3.
i believe is not going to be able to cope with the faster ground with
and
who both like the ground and are proven can win at this distance and at a high class of race.
So we are left with 2 –
Dick Turpin
and
Music Show
Now i cant see that these two horses are all that far apart in ability, well certainly not as far apart as the odds would suggest with the bookies.
Creating a betting tissue at this point would probally really demonstrate the value better but as this is something i’ve still not looked into i can’t do it but based on what i have reveiwed i would see it in this orderDick Turpin
–
Music Show
–
Cityscape
–
Dream Eater
–
Highland Knight
I would see it as
Dick Turpin
and
Music Show
Both being fairly similar in odds.
So based on value i would much rather punt for
*Music Show*
This is my first go at publically doing this so feel free to smash apart my analysis:)
Best of luck to all.
- Total Posts 17716
Excellent thoughts guys, a cracking read.
I’ve gone for Highland Knight myself, fancied this a few times last year thought he’d run some promising times and at 100-1 I’m willing to try my luck with a tenner each way.
- Total Posts 17716
Highland Knight is the obvious leader but with absolutely nothing in the race likely to take him on exactly how fast will they go? I am far from certain that the pace will be "decent".
From what I’ve seen there really are only two chances this afternoon – Music Show and Dick Turpin. Of the pair the one with the better tactical speed is clearly Dick Turpin and that makes him the standout for mine. Music Show was not ridden well in a small field last year in Ireland and the wet ground at her last run was unsuitable for mine. I do think she has to be held up off a good pace on firmer ground to be at her most effective. I cannot have Cityscape first up on a quick surface. Plenty of sunchine and a nice breeze will take care of the watering. I like the horse a lot but have little confidence when it comes to the type of going he’s most likely to experience this afternoon.
The other pair are not worthy of consideration and have no hope for mine.
My approx market –
Dick Turpin 4/6
Music Show 13/4
Cityscape 9
Dream Eater 16
Highland Knight 100Good luck with your tenner e/w. I’d prefer that bet to Cityscape or Dream Eater.
Shabbs,
Where do you get your opinion that Dream Eater is better on softer? in my opinion his form suggests the opposite.
Although you could (under your criteria) throw him out for class and trainer form.
Value Is EverythingAgreed Chiswickian,
Dick Turpin is the one who will be suited by a muddling race. But I hope jockeys of the other three know this and track the pacemaker, not allowing a gap. Something I am sure Mr Wilson is keeping his fingers crossed does happen.
Dream Eater can pull hard and needs some cover, may be more than one horse. Can’t see why Cityscape and Music Show can’t track the pace though.
Taking odds-on in a possibly muddling race where luck in running could play a part; is also risky. Even if a steadily run race should suit.
Value Is Everythingquality posts chaps.
My money is carried by Music Show. The presence of the pacemaker will be a great benefit. Cityscape I think is uncertain to fancy the rattling ground, Dick Turpin has enough quality but at the prices 9/2 Music Show for me.
Dream Eater ran in the HK Mile and let down well enough on the firmer track over there. Sadly his form doesn’t show it because that race was an absolute crawl.
I liked Music Show a lot last year but she has been well found out in my opinion. I can’t see her improving enough to trouble Dick Turpin who I feel is unbeatable. Remember, Goldikova smashed Music Show in France by 3L with no excuses for the Channon filly.
I’m thinking maybe even a small go at Dream Eater to pip Music Show for 2nd. A long shot for sure but at the prices…Well, I got that one a bit wrong.
Still, the other two races I bet in had Poker De Sivila as a saver, and Kings Gambit a main bet. So happy enough.Value Is EverythingAn impressive display from Dick Turpin, who won with the minimum of fuss. I was briefly worried when Cityscape came along side, but Dick picked up well when Hughes gave him a shake of the reigns. He’s sure to take high rank among the milers again this year.
I thought Music Show was somewhat disappointing. Hopefully she just needed to blow the cobwebs away, as I would hate to see her go down the Lush lashes road, who wasn’t nearly as good a filly at 4 as at 3.
Ginger,
Just looked back at my notebook (wrote everything down before posting on here) And your right lol
Have no idea where i got that from now looking at his form or how i even managed to write that on here.
I’ll put that down to misreading my notes…ill be a bit more carefull next time. Luckily didnt affect how i would of gone about things today.
As most throught Dick Turpin real easy winner, One to keep an eye on, Cityscape looking ok on firmer ground but even then he had no competition with Dream Eater, Highland Knight and surprisingly Music Show, who ran a very poor race in my view. I think now possibly looking over previous results that maybe the field size was just a bit too small for her ?
Maybe something to bear in mind when she runs again !
A lot to like about that.
Cityscape came there with momentum, but Hughes was full of confidence – even allowing the runner-up to get his nose in front.
Dick Turpin travels so well in his races, I’m surprised Hannon is potentially targeting the Prince Of Wales. He was a blatant non-stayer at York last season, in my opinion, and if anything a step back in trip to six furlongs wouldn’t inconvenience him.
Forget what Richard Hughes is saying about Canford Cliffs needing to ‘pull his socks up’. He knows, like Hannon, that Canford Cliffs is top dog and the Irishman will be in the saddle of ‘Double C’ come Newbury.
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