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Hi Seagull,
Dont know if there is any benefit from betting largely on the earlier races in a day, suspect not. But the fact is, that to get a true reflection of the chance of going bust, you need to see a string of unending favourites since inception and see if you have ‘survived’ any run of 10 losing favs.
There may have been times you’ve won on the (say) 5th fav, only for the remainding favs on that day to have lost. Followed by the first few of the next day that would have blown the bank had the sequence have started after the 5th race of the previous day.
Continued good luck
Carv
Can I thank you for Gungadu. Didn’t get any 5’s but got better than 9/2 on BF.
First class tipping mate.
Good luck with this Artemis.
Should compliment your ‘Surprise Handicap Winner’ system nicely
Well done on your 1st week JB it does seem like the 8 pts + filter has worked for you
Paul
Adrian Massey’s site will give you some excellent stats on winning runs of favs.
His stats go back to 1991 I believe, so not quite as far as you were asking, but a pretty long way nevertheless.
Once on his site look for the favourites statistics button, you can choose ‘All Races’ or just 2 or 3 year olds or Handicaps etc. When you’ve decided scroll down to the bottom and you’ll get a table of longest runs of winners and longest runs of losers for that category.
Hope this helps
Artemis,
This is exactly why it gets so difficult writing system rules.
You could easily get 3 or 4 or more Handicaps on a Saturday that are more valuable than anything during the week. I think you’re right to stick to the principle of the thing though and not put up a selection, just because it happens to be (say) the only race left after abandonments.
Glad to see you’re having another go Zoso.
Dont forget that to be totally accurate you really need to deduct a little bit of commission from your winning lays, only 0.05 of a point per lay, but important when your profit/loss account is so tight.
Good luck
Good luck with this RH.
I’m not a value ‘aholic’ by any means, but even putting up selections at 2/1 or less might mean you’re getting ‘value’. If a selection’s true price should be (say) 13/8 then 2/1 is fantastic value.
Man Utd at around 5/4 on BF yesterday, proved to be wonderful value. So I’m not sure what you’re going to be proving here, maybe that you can still show a profit betting at the shorter end of the market?
Will watch with interest
Agree with a lot insomniac says.
Think that if its not the end for Rafa then it is certainly the beginning of the end. Having said that, heard that the last 15 minutes alone Liv could easily have scored 4 and maybe more including hitting the bar? If that’s right then that surely is down to the players and they have to hold their hands up for that, not the manager.
Hi Artemis,
Yes Philson Run is the reason I asked. When I checked yesterday, Sporting Life had them both in at 8/1 and Racing Post were still to publish forecast sp.
Good luck for today
By the way Artemis, if there’s a couple of potential qualifiers which publication are you using to apply the price rule?
Pompete that would be interesting. Artemis’ system is going (by & large) to be picking horses not at the head of the market and in those cases place prices are sometimes a little more generous than the conventional terms.
Wins per start surely a better indicator than EPS.
As Sean Rua has just shown us, very good horses will necessarily be short in price, particularly if running in lesser company, so EPS may not reflect their dominance.
Hi Artemis,
You mentioned a possible starting point as a horse’s 1st win.
Would be great if we could find a way of recognising a few signposts just before that and actually be on that 1st win, because after that the price is necessarily depressed.
Carlisle I fear that if we can recognise ‘ value ‘ then so can plenty of others.
Still interested
