system Embryo

[Artemis]

onefurlongout,

I think you get a better picture of improvement from the ratings as they appear in a horse’s career record on the Racing Post website. Using recent wins and placings takes no account of the class of race the horse competed in.

snowman,

I’ve devised a system based on the ‘profitable horses’ mentioned in my earlier post. It appears on a new thread and actually managed to kick off with a winner. See how it goes.

[carlisle]

Hi quadrilla

with regard to Market/Trainer vibes

this is extremely useful within system, cus it narrows down the qualifiers.
Also it highlights whether the trainer expects the horse to run well.

I am not sure if you are aware of this but………

"A Winner can be a bad bet"

byefrom
carlisle

[onefurlongout]

Aretemis,

I agree with you completely I was simply identifying a simple method when looking at an improving horse

[Sean Rua]

Yes, I would seriously suggest that some kind of " earnings per start" criterion is used in the system.

When I looked at VDW, I didn’t find their way of doing it much help.

However, when just toying with figures for tonight’s racing at Wolver, EPS pointed to the following payers:

Semantic Witch, Terminate, Ermine Grey, Buster Hynoven, Blackheath and Maktavish.
They weren’t all winners and they weren’t all top on EPS, but they weren’t far off!

I suggest that we give this due consideration. Perhaps someone can offer a good way of using the idea?

[carlisle]

Hi Sean

i think EPS wud be good as a finetuner, but i not see it forming the main GUTS of the system.

I am willing to through my lot in, to making the system work. Teamwork cud be really fun, powerful & profitable.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi gang

just had a few thoughts………

A "good" system massively cuts down on the work load but not at the expense of accuracy. Hey….. that wont be on the NEWS!

If the trainer doesn’t expect the horse to run well we should forget it.
(The market and general vibes…. being the best guide)

Therefore i suggest concentrating on trainers that pull off gambles.

byefrom
carlisle

[Artemis]

Sean,

Earnings per start is an interesting concept and can be worked out fairly quickly from the RP website.

Profit or Loss at level stakes over a horse’s career can also be ascertained, but takes a bit longer. This could also be a useful statistic.

Both figures can be skewed by winning a very valuable race or winning at a huge price, which is a possible weakness of using these stats for system purposes.

Wins to runs ratio, Prize money won, and Profit/Loss to level stakes tell us a lot about a horse. Add in Time(as in how long ago?) and losing sequence and you might conjure up a formula on which to base your selections. Possibilities.

[Sean Rua]

Just in passing and as a matter of interest, here are some figures for Denman and Kauto Star:

Denman: Win% = 92.31, LSP + £12.83

Kauto Star: Win % = 71.43, LSP + £6.60

Right now, I cannot find the Earnings quickly, nor the "Speed Figures".

These things are interesting, but I’m not sure how useful.

[snowman]

Wins per start surely a better indicator than EPS.

As Sean Rua has just shown us, very good horses will necessarily be short in price, particularly if running in lesser company, so EPS may not reflect their dominance.

[carlisle]

Things are getting messy, the baby may be born a doughnut!

[carlisle]

Hi gang

i think we have dropped the dead wood, lets hear from someone who wants to be a WINNER……

all my love
carlisle

[Artemis]

This might be helpful in the quest.

What seems a very long time ago, I produced an article for a publication called Smartsig magazine.

The article was about a systematic approach to finding winners at fair odds. Really, it was the very beginnings of my present methods.

Now, since those far off days, I have made many changes and I hope they have all been logically thought out. I’ve no wish to go back to the beginning and start again but perhaps if I outline what I was thinking at the beginning, it might spark ideas from others who would almost certainly have developed things differently than I have done.

So here is a brief outline of what started out as a method called PFS – Positive Factor Scores.

First, list all positive or negative factors that might be indicative of a horse’s ability and potential for winning this race under consideration.

My original list:

FORM in relation to opponents – ratings

SPEED RATINGS to substantiate the above

RECENT FORM/SPEED ratings and sequence of results

GOING preferences

HORSE PROFILE career record/ distance suitability/ course record

TRAINER PROFILE general record/current form/course record/ profitability

JOCKEY PROFILE general record/ stable record/knowledge of horse/profitability

The next step was to quantify the above factors and weight them to reflect their importance in the winner finding process.

Then convert the weights into probabilities and find out which horses appear to be fair bets in relation to actual odds available.

Not original, by any means. Charles Babbage used a similar approach over 100 years ago. He didn’t find a winning system but invented a punched card data input calculating machine which led to the development of the modern computer.

Since those days, I’ve refined my methods, added new factors, dropped some out and experimented with different formulae. I’ve had some successes, but mostly I’ve found it very hard to keep my own money, let alone win other people’s.

For a new system, the above methodology is an ideal starting point. Make your own list and weight the factors. Everyone will have different ideas, maybe they will be better than mine.

[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

thanks for that……. i will have a good careful read. It looks good.
You know iam just kidding most of the time.

Its just frustrating that their are so many people pursuing fruitless individual efforts to be winners.

I feel i know how to make big money from betting, but its the doing and successful maintaince of a winning method thats the difficult part.

A thorough logical plan is vital.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

having read your last reply, i have a few comments.

I used to think about weighting factors and thorough probability breakdowns, but this approach is too time consuming. It also works on the premise that racing can be fully understood from a few pieces of data. The bottom line is that "the trainer calls the tune".

So my focus now is to try and anticipate when he will try to pull off a coup.

However this must be backed up with a good ability score that is revelent to the prevailing race conditions. This being an easier system to operate and maintain. (iam still roughing it out)

In a nutshell, i want my horses to have performed a recent ish audition. Once the individuals are identified, more information can be attached to their profile.

Then i will watch my chosen trainers like a cat.

byefrom
carlisle

[Artemis]

carlisle,

I think I know ‘where you are coming from’.

Trainers certainly decide when to pull the trigger and if you can follow the plot rather than be bemused by the posturing of the characters, it is a good angle to work from.

Personally, I find a lot of trainers almost impossible to read, so if I was following trainers I would stick with those who are always trying. The market is usually a good guide with most of these, although they are usually overbet.

Seagull is the trainer specialist. He sent me some stats a few seasons ago which were very comprehensive and interesting. I never applied them because I was concentrating on form and ratings. These stats are invaluable to anyone following trainers.

The weighting of factors is, as you say, very tedious and will become a chore unless you are making substantial profits. It gets easier with time and get help to stave off dementia (I’m told), but you can easily become dissociated from the sport and bogged down in numbers.

I agree that you cannot fully understand races from a few pieces of data. Although it has been stated here many times, it bears being repeated. There is no substitute for knowledge of the form book, including all the assembled characters, horses, jockeys, trainers, connections et al.
Anything less, and you need a bookmaker’s permit and a good pitch to beat the game, or maybe a rare brain that would be better employed making people’s lives better.

[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

yes the market is going to be the best guide to stable confidence. The relationship between RP price, Morning price activity, opening price and starting price always intrigues me.

Trainers are not brain surgeons, they can be tagged.

Iam looking to isolate 6 interesting villians, i mean trainers, for close study

I don’t know if you can see this, but theres a bit of a system taking shape.

byefrom
carlisle

[Seagull]

Danid Peat and Andrew Mount both study horses profiles and they can often sort out winners sometimes at decent prices.
David Peat uses these variabes when checking out horses profiles.
1 a small or large field
2 soft or firm ground
3 rest or recent run pattern
4 right or left hand pattern
5 straight or turning course pattern
6 down hill or flat tarck pattern
7 seasonal or monthly pattern

Here are a few examples of David Pleats profiles.

Weddings Hurdle class 3 2mile 4 furlong heavy

WILD CANE RIDGE
when racing at Ayr 1111
when racing less than 2miles 7 furlongs
112111211
when racing over longer distances
142F826P24
when racing in Class 1 events 464
So this horse should only really be followed when racing at Ayr in events that are 2miles 7 furlongs or less.

ASHWELL
Mon 7th Jan Ludlow hand chase 3mile good to soft
winner was Ashwell.
when racing rh track 41111
when racing left hand track 85F2F2P3
So lay the horse if you see it running on a l/h track

TREASULIER
Not a prolific winner with just 2 wins from 27 starts but he needs a small field where he could possibly lead
the record then is less than 6 runners 331221

Folkestone 21 Jan
folketone handicap chase 3mile 1 furlong heavy
The 14/1 winner was
MONEY LINE Not really a suprise if you know these facts.
Racing heavy ground 1511
racing less than 7 runners 1111
the horse can be followed next time under the same conditions.

FAJR
This horse is a standing dish at Lingfield and the record there is 11115131
(7-9 )

KABEER
Another aw veteran but best to follow this horse at Southwell where the record is 211421 (3-6)

Catterick 18th Jan soft ground
LABELTHOU
This horse prefers hurldes to fences and has beaten Gaspara( 6 lenghts and eased down) from the David Pipe yard.
This horse can be backed under these conditions
soft or heavy ground 6112111 (5-7)
racing over hurdles 9 runners or less 11211 (4-5)

for those interested in this type of sytem David has a website so message me for details.

[Author]

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