system Embryo

[carlisle]

Hi gang

i want to create a system from scratch that a few people can help to operate…………..

Anyone interested in a brainstormer?

byefrom
carlisle

[Artemis]

carlisle,

Yes, I would be interested. I think we need a bit of lateral thinking here.
Every time I try to think my way into a new angle, my original preconceptions about ratings etc. keep dragging me back into the same old groove. A groove, incidentally, that I’m fairly sure now does not provide any hopes of a profitable system.

I don’t know how we would conduct this brainstorm on the forum, but it might produce something if we stick to the ‘rules’ – any ideas or associations acceptable and suspension of judgement.

[carlisle]

Hi mate

well my brain works best from the General to the particular. In other words lets not, initially, get tied up/lost in the small details.

In the past i have been too painstaking, but i profitable system must have implied intelligence.

Adhering to the idea that events happen for REASONS, (and not simply a collision of data) is close to my heart…. btw

byefrom
carlisle

[snowman]

Interesting – but there’s probably not much that we can think of that would be original I suspect, still it would be a hybrid if half a dozen had a little go at chipping in one idea each and it would be fun to see how it got on.

Carlisle I fear that at some stage a degree of ‘small details’ may be inevitable – however I agree that one shouldn’t get so tied up with those that the system never sees the light of day!

[class tells]

must be in first 3 in betting? first rule if profit is required

[carlisle]

Hi snowman

i agree that we need loads of "small details", but it will be very difficult to reach unity on these ideas.

However hammering out some BIG guiding principles should??????????????? (please god) be easier. Then the tricky stuff has a chance to be developed and feel the warmth of a family’s love.

For example (these are just ideas not a SPEECH)

1. The system must pick the selections …… not the humans.
2. It must be okay to operate and not too time consuming.
3. The members of the team must take on certain roles/jobs.
etc……….

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi class tells

you have jumped the gun abit mate, but the betting market should play a key function in the system.

I favour using the first 5 in the betting for nonhcps and 6 for hcps. The real BIG question here is why is the betting market important. I know this sounds daft, but we need to dig deep.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

it has occured to me that a nursery/shortlisting data feed to the main system could be very useful.

think of this as a preprocess……………

just an idea?

[carlisle]

Hi snowman

being "original" is not necessary imo.

byefrom
carlisle

[Seagull]

I am not spamming anything up as I no longer do this commercially although still do it privately.

The reason I no longer do this is because the effort in compiling the data everyday and operating a phone line every day took around 4 hours but due to not receiving the money due to me I called it a day.

The company who used to market the books virtually stole the whole method and some one there now has just changed the title.

I stopped them publishing anything similiar as I own the copyright.

However by following certain trainers at certain tracks and in certain types of race always made a level stake profit year after year for the 6 years I published my books and it still holds up to this day.
Anyone with RSB or the similair system sold by The Racing Post can check the results out.

Here are a few examples.
Overall results since 2001
618 wins from 2526 runners 24.5% strike rate
Level stake profit of 1858 points
Return on investment 73.58%

Ascot
M.Johnston in handicap races only
28 wins from 176 runners 15.91% s/r. L.S.P. of 70.38 points

Beverley
R. Fahey.
Any horse in any hand’p except 2 yos
43 wins from 213 runners 20.19% sr LSP OF 148.92

Ling aw
DRC Elsworth in maidens and conditions races
9 wins from 45 runners 20% sr LSP OF 67.08
NICE PRICED WINNER EXACTLY SAME TYPE OF RACE IN LAST 2 WEEKS AS I BACKED IT

Chepstow
this is a good one as he is overlooked but gets nice prices
B Palling Non hand exclude claimers and sellers
13 wins from 72 18.06% sr LSP PF 154.58

There are loads of others nat hunt or flat.
Once you compile a list it takes 5 mins to go through a days racing to find the selections.

MA JARVIS Wolv aw
3 yo races only
11 wins from 27 runners 40.74% sr lsp 24.52

yarmouth
well known for years as a good track for newmarket yards
M.Stoute any horse in any race
33 wins from 102 runners 32.35% sr lsp of 39.25

newcastle
M BELL Avy horse except 3 yos
13 wins from 45 runners 28.89% sr lsp 41.65%

well worth a second glance at any system such as this,
rgds

carlisle
I can message u a list if you want to do it and from that list over the last 7 years a basic £10 win on every selection would have made £18,500 thats at sp more on betfair but it has made profit every year average profit each last 7 years £2,642.

[carlisle]

Hi Seagul

thanks for the reply. However this thread is about creating an organic holistic approach. In a nutshell iam only interested in why things happen.

Records and stats can change like the wind. I don’t want to abdicate control to a number crunching system, i want to feel the intrinsic power.

However your data could be of useful incidental importance.

byefrom
carlisle

[Artemis]

I’ve never tried this, but it is an area worth a look.

I’ve noticed that certain horses ‘pop up’ every now and then, usually at a decent price. If you had followed these horses throughout their careers, you might have made a decent profit – I don’t know, I suppose that’s where the research comes in.

The starting point has to be the horse’s first win. After that, any suggestions?. I have a few ideas which I’ll come back with after its been kicked around a bit.

[Formath]

I believe the salient points towards formulating a logical system are:

What to know:
1. If the general approach is logical
2. The pattern of past results
3. The result to level stakes
4. The longest losing run
5. The bank required to allow for success

As well as the above I would suggest a portfolio of 3 – 6 different systems to iron out ups and downs covering different aspects such as – favourites, non-hcaps, hcaps, trainers etc.

[carlisle]

Hi Formath

i agree that this is the traditional approach to a system. However I absolutely believe the following mission statement is a winner!

Back horses with proven ability, suited to the race conditions, fancied to run well, with a positive risk/reward ratio.

To fashion this into a workable system would require DESIRE.

byefrom
carlisle

[Artemis]

carlisle,

Are you writing speeches for Omar?

It’s the positive risk/reward ratio bit that causes all the trouble….. and about 90% of the debate on the forum.

Bookmakers and betting exchanges are working very hard to make the ratio negative.

[carlisle]

Hi Arty

value or as i put it "positve risk/reward ratio" is easy enough to understand. Firstly estimate risk then strike a bet to your advantage.

99% of punter dont even attempt to estimate risk. Therefore they have no chance of making a living from betting.

I take it that you dont buy into my mission statement. I consider this sentence to be ABSOLUTELY VITAL.

byefrom
carlisle

btw my style is to try and say as much as i can in as few words as poss.

[carlisle]

Hmmmmmmmmmm

create a system with a value element….. there aint many going to come on that journey.

[Author]

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