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Here is one for today from David Peat
5.55 Nad Al Sheeba
LINGARI
record at this track 11011
racing jan or feb 1111
group 2 or below 3114411111411
group 1 062526491
Ryan Moore rides and this South African horse bids to win this G2 race for the 3rd time todayHi Seagull
the horse profiling angle is good, but a more efficient approach would be to accept that a good trainer will be aware of all the horse preferences.
The profile i had in mind was to initially flag up a horse that has shown ability, then add some colour to the picture.
The enjoyable part of racing, for me, is to see the horses and get familar with them. This can be achieved by watching videos, open day visits etc.
I want my horses to have the right physique, (i like big lungs and heart)
and excellent co-ordination. Also i want a battler on my side.
Knowing about its well being is obviously important.The horse fact file could include anything interesting spoken or written about it. For the right people, this would be a good group exercise.
byefrom
carlisle
"Power comes from strength"Hi quadrilla
thanks for your reply. Hey, the Phil Bull story (on DVD) sounds good i would like to watch that. Where did you get hold of that mate?
As for the importance of a successful trainer………….. well
He is the pivotal figure
He manipulates the owners
He manipulates the horses
He manipulates the jockeys
He manipulates the horse racing systembyefrom
carlisle
- Total Posts 17716
Personally, I find a lot of trainers almost impossible to read, so if I was following trainers I would stick with those who are always trying. The market is usually a good guide with most of these, although they are usually overbet.
Artemis
Trust me, there is no such animal.
Far better to try and understand when they are trying.Hi reet hard
i agree that a trainers job requires them to be cunning. There must be a good chance that they are trying to win the better prizes though. Also money talks and the bookies must react to any potential…….BATTERING!
byefrom
carlislecarlisle et al,
Having sat on the sidelines for most of this thread I have this input for consideration. It is an extract from the ‘Market Factors Reserarch Report’ circa 1974. It may be that with the passage of time and major changes in the betting market render it not so effective now as it was then.
"The whole basis of consistent winner-finding must start with the betting market."
"It is a fact that money from stables/connections has a material effect on the market especially when ‘hot’ money is received from certain quarters…….even a horse shortening in price by only half a point before the off may be significant. There are many false moves and other factors involved. When a horse is backed down you must not back it for that reason alone – ask yourself why it has shortened. Has it been dropped in class, if its previous form was bad only connections are forcing the price down. Why? Ist it running over a new distance, is the going different to what it was when it showed poor form. These are just a few of the questions you must ask."
"The Research Team have studied all these factors and save you the trouble of trying to work all this out in the few minutes you have available before the off to decide if the horse has been backed down for a special reason.
Having established certain important facts the team then set about checking the percentage and profitability of betting horse backed down in the market (this includes those that drift out from the opening price and shorten) and secondly to establish which stable moves were the most successful and under what conditions the highest rate of success is achieved."(if any of the contributors to this thread would like a complete copy of the report, which runs to 6 x A4 pages – much of it dated, you are welcome to have a copy sent to you.)
Hi Formath
thanks for the reply… the report contains lots of sensible advice. However any betting method must be user friendly and reasonable quick to operate.
The sucessful trainer isn’t a genius, hes just a cunning son of a bitch… who needs tagging.
Backing horse without proven form will drive you nuts…. so evidence of ability allied with strong market support is hard to beat.
But which trainers should be NOTED for their GAMBLES.
Might be worth starting a weekly thread that flags up this type of activity. Successful and unsuccessful…………. (with associated varibles)
byefrom
carlislecarlisle,
Simple Eh! You do want it putting on a plate
. OK, here is a list for this week of trainers to follow where their runners drop in price shortly before the off, even if drifting out from opening odds:HRA Cecil – 3yo maidens, 3yo Gp 1, 2, 3, 4yo+ hcaps
M Stoute – 3yo Gp 1, 2, 3, 4yo+hcaps
R Hannon – 2yo maidens, 4yo+ Gp 1, 2, 3 hcaps
M Johnston – 3yo hcaps
JHM Gosden – 3yo maidens, 3yo hcaps
MA Jarvis – 3yo maidens, 4yo+ Gp 1,2,3 hcaps
BW Hills – 3yo maidens, 3yo hcaps, 4yo+ hcaps
JG Given 4yo+hcaps
B Smart – 2yo maidens, 3yo Gp 1, 2, 3, 4yo+ hcaps
H Candy – 3yo maidens, 3yo hcaps, 4yo+ hcaps
W Jarvis – 2yo maidensThe simple rules are: –
1. This list for flat turf only.
2. Check for non-runners then note and mark trainer’s runners as per the list, supporting them when they are backed down shortly before the ‘off’.
3. Where there is more than one qualifier backed down in a race select the one from the yard with the highest percentage (not provided on the above list )Trying to second guess trainers is a difficult task, which is why I prefer to bet on horses in valuable races, preferably those trained by people who I believe are fairly honest. I don’t believe you have to be ‘clever’ to make racing pay as a trainer if you are handling the best horses.
There will always be conspiracy theories and no doubt many of training’s lesser lights do not always run horses to win but surely there must be at least 20% of trainers who are solid citizens who have no stain on their characters.
Most of my acquaintances are decent honest people, even in their business dealings. Why shouldn’t a dozen trainers not be the same?
- Total Posts 17716
Trying to second guess trainers is a difficult task, which is why I prefer to bet on horses in valuable races, preferably those trained by people who I believe are fairly honest. I don’t believe you have to be ‘clever’ to make racing pay as a trainer if you are handling the best horses.
There will always be conspiracy theories and no doubt many of training’s lesser lights do not always run horses to win but surely there must be at least 20% of trainers who are solid citizens who have no stain on their characters.
Most of my acquaintances are decent honest people, even in their business dealings. Why shouldn’t a dozen trainers not be the same?
Artemis
Basically, it’s probably because most of your acquaintances don’t have to provide betting opportunities for their clientele, or have to fool the handicapper as a basic requirement of their job.
All trainers use the racecourse to get their horses fit, to establish their class, and to try them out for distance and going preferences etc., and at all levels, including Godolphin, Coolmore, Paul Nicholls and Michael Stoute and their top horses.
No conspiracy theories, no great mysteries, just a daily fact of life in horse-racing and betting, but often the difference between a winning bet and a loser.Hi Formath
I might be simple, but i didn’t actually say "simple".
i dont hold with strict systems, i favour an assembly of key indictators.
That are produced with the minimum of fuss, thus allowing time to mull them over.I am going to try to do a bit of research and see if there was any interesting market activity yesterday.
byefrom
carlisleHi reet hard
my feeling is that it’s very annoying when you have studied a race thoroughly, and a horse has solid claims…… then runs like a pig.
(The top class jockey rides like a novice.) To the trained eye it’s clearly not "OFF".The answer is to develop a way of indictating when the trainer is "UP FOR IT….!". Or just stick to the best races…. (but that would be too easy
)byefrom
carlislereet hard,
I think what you say is correct. Honest trainers do send untried horses and those not fully wound up to the racetrack. But these horses occasionally win unbacked or when weak in the market. This shows that trainers and connections do not always know the abilities of the horses they are sending out.
My point is that it’s much more likely for the honest trainer to allow horses to ‘do their best’ whenever they run.
. OK, here is a list for this week of trainers to follow where their runners drop in price shortly before the off, even if drifting out from opening odds:
)
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