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I’ve devised a simple system, which is new as far as I know, and is based around an idea mentioned on another thread (Embryo System).
It can be easily operated using the Racing Post online and the selection(if there is one) found in about ten minutes.
First, the ‘rules’:
1.Choose the most valuable handicap of the day.*
2. Identify horses that have not won in their last 5 races and are in the handicap proper.
3. Eliminate horses that do not have a wins to runs ratio of at least 20% for all their racing career(all races included).
4. Eliminate horses that have not won a race within the last two years.
If there is more than one qualifier, take the horse at the longest odds. If the odds are the same, take the highest weighted. If they still cannot be split, divide the stakes.
*edit: From Saturday 15 March, I’ve amended this to any handicap where the RP top-rated is 100+(flat) or 130+(turf).[/color:21l705mz]
Bank 50pts Level Stakes 1pt win at SP on each selection.First selection:
3.25 Chepstow Bring Me SunshineWon 7/1[/color:21l705mz]
Nice to see another new system being posted.
Good luck for today Artemis.
Regards – Matron
A bit more about this system, which is based largely on my own observations, but does contain strands of logical thinking.
I wouldn’t suggest any sort of system unless there was a logical basis for it. My reasoning here is that there are certain horses that ‘pop up’ every now and then, usually at a rewarding price after a longish losing sequence. Such horses are not usually overbet unless they have been close up in their most recent races. Many of these horses are what I would call ‘profitable horses’ because they would produce a level stake profit if you backed them throughout their career.
By concentrating on the very best handicaps only, you are fairly sure that the horses are there with a chance, having produced form good enough to get into such races.
Also, you only select horses that have won at least 1 in 5 of their races, so they must be useful.
Horses can deteriorate and eliminating those that have not won within the last two years filters out most of those that are now going downhill.
My observations of surprise winners of handicaps over many years has been that such winners often cause punters who rely on strong recent form(such as me!!) to scratch their heads. Looking back at the form of such horses, you very often find that they are in fact multiple winners who have often obliged at very decent odds because the betting public have forgotten the old form very quickly.There’s no reason you cannot apply my reasoning to other handicaps, but the higher class races should be the most fruitful.
A good start. I hope it’s not beginner’s luck
Next bet:
Friday 15th February
Sandown 2.35 The Luder won 9/2[/color:nq4ur1oh]
Artemis,
I guess there is a fine line to be drawn between these ‘surprise’ horses and others that are in decline. Two years is a long time to keep backing the same ‘losers’, so maybe you need another rule like, "eliminate those that have previously failed to deliver (3? times)"
JimF,
You have to remember that we are talking about the most valuable handicap of the day, so horses in serious decline usually drop down the weights(slowly) and then out of the top handicaps. This is why the system will not work so well further down the ability range – you have horses running in these grades that may never recapture their sparkle and you could end up following such a horse by using this system.
If we try to extend the system following a fair trial, something like three failures would be worth considering.
When you get a number of top class handicaps on the same day, it might be worth looking at more than one for interest’s sake.
You have to remember that we are talking about the most valuable handicap of the day, so horses in serious decline usually drop down the weights(slowly) and then out of the top handicaps. This is why the system will not work so well further down the ability range – you have horses running in these grades that may never recapture their sparkle and you could end up following such a horse by using this system.
Yes, quite right, that suitably balances a lot of what I was thinking about.
When you get a number of top class handicaps on the same day, it might be worth looking at more than one for interest’s sake.
Again, yes, because it is all about prize money and conditions, from an owner/trainer perspective. So multiple ‘top’ races should be ok, meaning that your system should be equally robust for multiple daily selections, subject to the prizes being worthwhile, so to speak. You will know what I mean!
Nice work Artemis and well done on an excellent start.
I think there’s every chance at the very least this could prove to be the sort of system to include within a portfolio along the lines that Formath suggests.
I’ll try and keep an eye on prices available on the Place Market for you, as this may offer an alternative opportunity should a number of horses end up being placed.
Pompete that would be interesting. Artemis’ system is going (by & large) to be picking horses not at the head of the market and in those cases place prices are sometimes a little more generous than the conventional terms.
By the way Artemis, if there’s a couple of potential qualifiers which publication are you using to apply the price rule?
There are actually two qualifiers in the 2.45 Haydock tomorrow.
I’d discounted Philson Run because I thought the horse hadn’t won for over 2 years. I was wrong. The last win was on 25th Feb 2006, so strictly speaking this horse should be the selection, being the biggest price.
As a compromise, in case anyone has already supported the other selection, and being reluctant to cancel a selection already given, I’m giving out
Philson Run as an additional selection for the race at 1pt win.Unplaced 13/2. Eventually started a shorter price than the other selection, Point Barrow.
Running Total Stakes 4pts Profit 9.50[/color:najsdbyk]
If there is more than 1 qualifier, I use the Racing Post SP forecast unless it is fairly clear from other sources which horse will be the outsider.
I have not had a penny on any of the two winners. It’s just a watching brief at the moment.
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