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The "Who Needs Value" thread.

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  • #6708
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    For a long time now I have felt ‘value’ is an over-rated concept, and it often leads the less experienced punter to concentrate on prices at the expense of actually learning to figure which is the best horse in the race and the circumstances.
    I know Carvills is doing very well on his value oriented thread on here, though I’m sure that owes as much to his ability to pick winners as it does to obtain value prices, but the object of this exercise is (hopefully) to demonstrate that a profit can be turned without depending on prices.
    As the antithesis to value, all selections will be forecast at 2/1 or less and all bets 1 point at sp, so while I would never expect to reach the heady heights of some other threads on here, ! would hope to do well enough to prove a poiint, as much to myself as well as to anyone else. Even if I do, there are unlikely to be more than half a dozen selections a week, so noboby’s going to retire on the strength of it, but hopefully it will be an interesting expeiment for as long as it lasts.
    If it does, I might even adopt the signature "Value isn’t everything" <!– s:lol: –>:lol:<!– s:lol: –>

    #143696
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    3 selections for Saturday:

    2.40 Winc ARTURIO L
    3.40 Winc KATCHIT w4/5
    2.25 Asc KAUTO STAR w4/11

    +0.16pts WOW!! :lol:

    #144037
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    2.40 Nav AITMATOV L

    cum. -0.84pts

    #144095
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    RH, I’m looking forward to this. Will be watching with interest. :D

    #144188
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I’m rooting for you anyway.

    #144200
    InvisibleLayer
    Member
    • Total Posts 101

    good luck :!:

    #144270
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Good luck with this RH.

    I’m not a value ‘aholic’ by any means, but even putting up selections at 2/1 or less might mean you’re getting ‘value’. If a selection’s true price should be (say) 13/8 then 2/1 is fantastic value.

    Man Utd at around 5/4 on BF yesterday, proved to be wonderful value. So I’m not sure what you’re going to be proving here, maybe that you can still show a profit betting at the shorter end of the market?

    Will watch with interest

    #144275
    Formath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    reet hard,

    IMO it’s not good fortune its a miracle that you will require.

    If you trade in the betting market at the wrong price, that is below worth, the only possible way to profit is if your strike-rate is so good the prices are not relevant, something like a VDW 80-90% consistent win rate.

    I used to correspond with a good semi-pro backer in the late 80’s and he always said, ‘If you are getting more winners than losers then you are likely to be losing money.’

    Prof. Frank George, ‘A Better Bet’ (he was at the time Head of Department of Cybernetics at Brunel University – a real number cruncher) wrote:

    "When you do bet, it must be a Value Bet. Once you have selected the likely winner it is essential to assign your own ‘price’ to it – the odds the horse should be placed at in your opinion. If those odds are, for example, 3-1 and the board shows 4-1, the bet is a value bet – the majority are giving you a bigger margin than you expected – to yield a higher return than average. If your independent choice happens to coincide with the majority opinion and the odds move much below your assessment of the ‘right price’, do not bet. The potential profit is not worth the risk."

    Having said all that, it will be interesting to see the long-term outcome.

    I had a look at the Lingfield non-hcaps tomorrow, Feb 18, in the opinion of the Adrian Massey ratings and these two look value:

    1.55 No 3 at better than 13/2
    2.25 No 3 at better than 2/1

    #144340
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Thanks for the comments guys.
    TBH I’m just as mystified as you are as to how it will all turn out, but the restrictions are a necessity or the whole thread would be meaningless.
    Hopefully it will be a worthwhile exercise, either way.

    #144565
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I wonder if it’s possible to create a tissue and then bet something you fancy because its actual price is worse than your tissue price.

    Anti-value if you will!

    #145615
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Maybe,db? Both of my winners were odds-on. :lol:

    9.20W A Dream Come True w2/1

    cum +1.16pts

    #145724
    Charlie D
    Member
    • Total Posts 500

    Both of my winners were odds-on. :lol:

    Both were "value" bets in MY opinion :wink: and all the best with this thread reet

    #145745
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    1.50 Nc UNOWATIMEEN L
    4.50Fh SNOWY MORNING L

    cum -0.84pts

    #146531
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    3.50 Leics. SHERRIF ROSCOE L

    cum: -1.84 pts

    #147528
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I hadn’t realised when I started this thread the paucity of horses that would qualify for consideration as bets under the prescribed parameters – on a busy Saturday, 6 meetings only produce 12 runners that fall within the criteria.
    I’ll carry on with the thread, but it looks like being a longer process than I originally envisaged. 3 for today:

    1.45 Km WORKING TITLE w8/13
    3.25 Km STELLENBOSCH L
    4.40 kM CLASSIC FIDDLE L

    cum -3.22pts

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