- This topic has 42 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 10 months ago by
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- Posts
Reet,
Nice to know I inspired someone to do something like this.But….
You seem to think getting "value" is all about big prices. True value can be 7/1 if it is thought better than a 12.5% chance. But 1/7 can be value too, if thought better than an 87.5% chance.
So by concentrating on favourites means nothing. If your thread makes a profit then you have got value prices at short odds.
It does not mean you have made a profit without getting value.So I don’t know what point you are trying to make here.
Still, good luck anyway.
Ginge
Value Is Everythingreet hard is (trying to) pick winners without consciously seeking value or backing something for value’s sake (so to speak)
Nobody (well me anyway) disputes the fact that he will need "value" to show a profit at the end of it all.
I feel that some punters can get too wrapped up in the whole value angle and can’t see the wood for the trees sometimes.
reet hard is (trying to) pick winners without consciously seeking value or backing something for value’s sake (so to speak)
Nobody (well me anyway) disputes the fact that he will need "value" to show a profit at the end of it all.
I feel that some punters can get too wrapped up in the whole value angle and can’t see the wood for the trees sometimes.
That’s me then is it?
This forest is getting dencer by the minute.Reet, need value mate, surely not?
He’ll love you for saying that David.
I know what you mean though.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingNo it wasn’t aimed solely at you ginge!
I just feel that some people view the value approach as the be-all-and-end-all and holy grail of punting but personally I believe that the randomness factor of horse-racing wipes out any perceived value from a personalised tissue unless the % discrepancy between your tissue and the prices available is significant and then you run the risk of being just plain wrong with your calculations.
Better not be drawn in to the value debate again David. Especially on Reet’s thread, am sure he would not wish me to do so. So will not respond.
Ginge
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 17716
Here we go then, Carv.
Slightly different criteria in that I’ll stick to the better races, first 2 in the market, with the odd lay thrown in to generate a few more bets. All bets 1pt at sp.
C/f a deficit of -3.31 pts.
Only one worthwhile race today and a lay.
Sweet Lily, 8.40War, has only won 1 race in the last 2 years, and this distance, even on this sharp track is the very top end of her stamina range. With Miramare to tow them along, I just can’t see her lasting home.u/p 11/4
c/f -2.95pts- Total Posts 17716
Falco 3.45 Asc. L
-3.95pts
- Total Posts 17716
Apologies for the hiatus; connection problems for most of last week.
3.30 Nc, Benandonner. L
-4.95pts- Total Posts 17716
Bloody hell; Carv has stolen my thunder!
2.10 Nc. Utmost Respect – for reasons given on the Chipchase thread. w11/4
2.45 Curr. Promising Lead – my opposition to Finsceal Beo as a 10f horse is well-documented. (Though any serious rain would put Anna Pavlova right up there). w2/1They’d better win now.
Cum -0.2 pts
- Total Posts 17716
They’re all value when they win Carv.
Better sneak this one in while you’re asleep:2.05 Curr, Aine. L
On a side note, Anna Pavlova is a seriously under-rated horse imo, and I’m convinced she has a gp1 filles/mares in her, over a little further and on softer ground.
c/f -1.2pts
- Total Posts 17716
7.30 Curr. Age Of Chivalry L
c/f -2.2pts
Think that might be Leopardstown Reet… Can’t resist a throwaway each-way on Joshua’s Princess in that at 33/1: she beat Peeping Fawn in her maiden last year.
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Thanks Carv.
3.10N Master Of Arts. N/R
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4.35S Drill Sergeant L
-3.2pts
- Total Posts 17716
3.55S Visit L
2.10S Hoh Magic Lnb: I can’t put her up as a selection as she isn’t in the first 2 in the f/c, but as I mentioned last week, if there is genuine cut in the ground at Haydock, Anna Pavlova should have these on toast.
-5.2 pts (At least the sub hosed up
)
This forest is getting dencer by the minute.
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