Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Can I add my sorrow at hearing that Del has passed away. I was a very active user and poster on TRF when his 5/4 was in its pomp. i remember it and Del with much fondness.
Hi Seagull,
Dont know if you used un-named 2nd favs with this, but I remember someone telling me that they always bet un-named 2nd fav because
a) If there was a clear 2nd fav they were on that selection
b) if there were jt favs they were on both of those (albeit for reduced stakes)
c) if there were jt 2nd favs they were on both of these
Recently however I seem to see fewer J2f returned. Unless I’ve just not been looking!
Admittedly he was betting win only, whereas you are advocating EW
Ouch!
They’re all at it!! You couldn’t script it eh? Lay2win hits a 6/1 winner on his first public lay day and now cobbo does the same! What’s going on?!!
Hi L2W.
I wont keep banging on about this I promise, but just in case you hadn’t considered it BF SP on Desert Light was 8 ( 7/1 ) resulting in a loss on that selection of 7 points rather than the 7.2 returned SP + 20% gave you.
I only mention it as it could make a difference in the long run.
Good luck today
Hi Lay2win and welcome to TRF.
Betfair now return a Betfair SP which is available for backers and layers alike and often (particularly at the short end of the market) it will be a lot less than industry + 20%.
To be fair to your system I would have a look at this as an alternative.
Good luck with this
Hi FJ and welcome to TRF. I had no idea that Bet 365 accepted lay bets.
I’m not able to help you with your query really I’m afraid unless a friend or relative is prepared to help you open an alternative account in their name, but presumably that account would suffer the same fate if you continued to be successful.
Betfair and Betdaq are the two obvious alternatives.
good luck!
Yes cj I can honestly say, without fear of contradiction, that this method of betting has been tried before.
The results indicate that your topic should really be titled ‘ Losing large amounts regularly ‘.
I’m afraid that the randomness of winners even in races of only 5 – 8 runners means that very soon you are putting down £80 or £160 and should expect to go broke very soon.
If memory serves me correctly the 5/4 system was followed on here religiously for quite a while and showed consistent level stake profits and, unless i’ve got mixed up with something else, the author of that was then employed by a horse racing systems web site.
Seagull also showed consistent long term level stake profit, on his Trainers for Courses system, which he shared with us for a season on here and that was by no means a flash in the pan, as this showed consistent yearly LSP.
These are both backing systems of course which I presume is what you’re referring to.
Its true that the more exposure a winning system gets, the more people will follow it and ultimately the layers will either get wise to it, or so many people will be backing a selection, that the price lowers below a viable level for LSP.
Cheltenham has been good to you with this system dude!!
10/1 & 33/1 winners plus a 2nd at 7/1 all out of 8 bets!
Well done indeed Artemis!
Hi Artemis,
think this is a good move, hope so for your system anyway.
i’ve noticed that on many days there are 2 or 3 or more that could easily have been selections, had it not been for the overall criteria of The most valuable h’cap.
Good luck
slipperytoad, why are you .09pt down after a 1pt losing bet and a 1pt winning bet? If you are allowing for commission paid on your 1pt winning lay, then surely the max you can be down is .05pt?
Well that is certainly a ‘contrary’ choice slipperytoad. KS will in all likelyhood be fav for the Gold Cup unless a chunk of money comes for Denman, maybe if there is a disparity in their turnout in the parade ring.
KS is maybe not quite a ‘housewive’s choice’, but certainly there are thousands of people that only have a bet in the Derby, Grand National, Lincoln, Gold Cup etc that will be on this today, so it really should be ‘overbet’.
Of course KS may still win, but it qualifies perfectly as your ‘opposition to the popular view.’
Surely if you’re opposing the ‘popular’ view you would simply lay the fav?
Or I suppose back the complete outsider?
I dont get it either – sorry.
Good luck with it though
I’m pleased you appear to be winning Cobbo.
Are these worked out in advance or are you watching the market then ‘pouncing’. Are you working to a formula for selections or just ‘fancying’ a horse to lay 5 mins before the off?
Forgive me but it all seems a bit ‘ off the cuff ‘.
Continued good luck
