- This topic has 14 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
Thanks for that Ethan .. I used to swap emails with Del. I didn’t know he had passed away.
Sad to hear that.
Del, did pass on his 5/4 system to me some years ago – before he got banned from "TRF" – on the understanding it was not to be made public.
Regards – Matron
Hi all
i too used to swap emails with Del & i am also sorry to hear of his passing, he could start an argument with himself but he knew his game & he was someone i always had time for
RIP Del
Ginger if you trawl through many racing forums the 5/4 systems rules are easily found
all the best
LarryThanks for that Ethan,
Del’s system does seems nothing like mine, but as with all systems they rely on what prices bookmakers give.
Mine relys on getting on at the best early price. So the more people there are trying to get on, the less likely you are to get that price, so the less likely you are to make that elusive profit.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIt’s indeed very bad news that Del is no longer with us. Certainly he will always be remembered for his 5/4 system.
I’d previously attempted to unearth the system rules by trawling the net, but without total success.
I knew that he had been banned from here. But despite sometimes losing his temper too easily, one would have to say that he was a genuine fellow who loved horse-racing.
If the rules of his system were known by the bookies, it would surely have a detrimental effect on the odds available for certain already well-fancied runners.But I don’t think there are too many punters that would blindly follow his system because of the short prices of many of the runners identified by it.
I wonder if anyone on TRF is using his system. Someone using it a few years ago told me that all-weather runners don’t qualify because there is a high % of short-priced losing favourites that have run on artificial surfaces.Certainly this is verified by Adrian Massey’s custom reports.
Is there any system that can beat the book? Personally I am doubtful there is ."a high % of short-priced losing favourites that have run on artificial surfaces"
If true Bettowin, then there would be a winning system in that statement somewhere.
"a high % of short-priced losing favourites that have run on artificial surfaces".
It depends what one considers to be short-priced. In my eyes,short-priced is < odds of 7/4. Note that I said short-priced,not very short-priced. I think you’re implying that laying short-priced favs running on the all-weather may be profitable.That may be so, I just don’t know.
But what I do know is that once you’ve discounted some short-priced horses that in the long run will cause you, the punter to lose money,which horses do you bet instead in order to make money?The problem with the all-weather is that the low ability of many of the runners means that any one of them in a low-grade race can winIn addition, many such animals are inconsistent too.What’s more, it’s seldom that you can get value odds about a seemingly bad horse because the bookies are afraid of being taken to the cleaners.
Furthermore, weak betting markets at all-weather courses may be an indication that many punters have identified the lower strike rate of favourites running on the all-weather compared to those running on turf
But I’m not an expert by any means.I could well be wrong!The 5/4 system was in it’s heyday in 2000/2001 when the exchanges came into being. SP favourites actually made a profit in those years, as did the Adrian Massey ratings. A couple of years ago Del gave the 5/4 another blast to see if it was still not working and it wasn’t.
To be honest I made a few bob out of it myself, but things changed on the net when it became public what he was doing and I think a run of bad luck and other events turned the system on it’s head.
I’ve got loads of emails from Del and reading through them it makes me realise how far ahead of other punters he was. I certainly learned a lot from him.
Dave,
Interesting that Del had tried it a couple of years ago. Over that period there has been a marked reversal in the profitability of Massey’s top-rated short-price favourites .
Of course, the problem may be that bookmakers’ odds for Del’s system qualifiers aren’t high enough these days to maintain the system’s profitability,assuming that the strike rate has remained steady.But using Betfair might make enough difference to put it into the black!The only way to determine this would be to run a trial.
Welcome to the forum btw,
Short price favourites tend to go off shorter on BF than at SP for some reason, so there’s no legs in it. Sometimes it’s just better to move on I reckon.
Thanks for the welcome, Dave.
I reckon you’re right.
The holy grail is still beyond our reach. But we must not give up our quest to find it!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.