Contrarian Selection Method

[slipperytoad]

Simple premise to the system “When everyone thinks alike everyone is likely to be wrong so do the oppositeâ€

[Artemis]

I thought quite a few people might fancy Harchibald, although I have not read the wise heads opinion on the main forum.

He ran well enough at Newcastle and has form here, so you couldn’t say everyone was discounting him.

I don’t get it, slippery.

[slipperytoad]

Given any problem, most people would agree with the statement that under normal circumstances, the majority opinion from the experts is considered to be correct.

The contrarian system I have created uses a small number of critical success factors to determine the most likely solution to a problem, and then oppose it with the minority choice.

Huh?

Well, we all know that in gambling, the majority opinion is penalised by the general betting public, no value; and the dissenting opinion “the minorityâ€

[Sean Rua]

Good luck with your methods!

I like Harchibald and also Osana.

[slipperytoad]

I am using the principle meeting of the day for the system so … …

Cheltenham

3.15 – Gr1 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase

No Bet

[snowman]

Surely if you’re opposing the ‘popular’ view you would simply lay the fav?

Or I suppose back the complete outsider?

I dont get it either – sorry.

Good luck with it though

[slipperytoad]

Good point Snowman, however the data points I am using endeavour to select the winner of the race and by definition outsiders are eliminated. Within this group of choices I am looking to bet the odd one out of the group..

I had not considered laying

So you could for example lay the majority choice if 4 of the data points select horse x and the odd one out selects horse y. Interesting.

The aim of the experiment tries to determine if backing horse y offers more value over time. But given that you’ve got me thinking … … … to be ultra contraian if all points of reference agree then I will lay their collective choice, here goes

14th March

Cheltenham – 3:30 3m 2f – totesport cheltenham gold cup chase grade 1

Lay Kauto Star (2nd)[/color:eh6lo6y2]

1/2

– 0.09 pts [/color:eh6lo6y2]

[snowman]

Well that is certainly a ‘contrary’ choice slipperytoad. KS will in all likelyhood be fav for the Gold Cup unless a chunk of money comes for Denman, maybe if there is a disparity in their turnout in the parade ring.

KS is maybe not quite a ‘housewive’s choice’, but certainly there are thousands of people that only have a bet in the Derby, Grand National, Lincoln, Gold Cup etc that will be on this today, so it really should be ‘overbet’.

Of course KS may still win, but it qualifies perfectly as your ‘opposition to the popular view.’

[slipperytoad]

I am not trying to turn this into a laying system trust me, however all compasses are pointing north on this one.. I’m heading south!

Lingfield 15 March

3:15 Gr3 Betdirect Com Winter Derby

Lay Zaham (14th)

2/3

+ 1pts [/color:15le9yf2](corrected per you comment Snowman)

[snowman]

slipperytoad, why are you .09pt down after a 1pt losing bet and a 1pt winning bet? If you are allowing for commission paid on your 1pt winning lay, then surely the max you can be down is .05pt?

[slipperytoad]

Fontwell – 16th March

4.30 Onlyproperty Co Uk Invest In Greece Handicap Hurdle Race

Win: Just Paddy

You may be wondering why Just Paddy, is the selection when it’s potentially the forecast favourite. Doesn’t seem like a contrarian choice

As I mentioned above, the system ignores the market and uses a number of data points each of which is trying to select the winner. The system selection is the odd one out and in this case the system matached the odds compliers.

1:35 Update

When I wrote the comments above (at 1am ), the main contender (and the majority choice) was How’s Business. Now he is a non runner and Just Paddy is a solid favourite in the market, to keep this a contrarian system, I will change my selection to

Lay: Just Paddy[/color:31rhhwu5] (Unpl. Fav)

3/4

+2pts[/color:31rhhwu5]

[slipperytoad]

Taunton 17th March

3.50 Farmers Inn At Higher West Hatch Handicap Hurdle Race

Win: Rate Of Knots (Unpl)

3/5

+1pts[/color:2gna2wjy]

[slipperytoad]

Kempton 18th March

4.30 Join The Kempton Park Punters Club Handicap Stakes

Win: Always Ready (1st @ 7/1)

4/6

+8pts[/color:295y4i7h]

[slipperytoad]

Market Rasen 19th March

4.35 Taxis From Handsome Cabs Handicap Steeple Chase

No Bet

[snowman]

Well done slip’ nice 7/1 there

[slipperytoad]

Thanks Snowy. Early days yet and the gambling gods are watching

Again to clarify the system rules

Using 4 data points which individually try to select the winner of the principle race of the day

1. If they all agree LAY their collective choice
2. If there is a dissenter amongst the data points (the odd one out) BACK this selection
3. If as a consequence of overnight/pre race withdraws the selection from (2) matches the crowd favourite then, do the opposite and LAY the selection

May need to filter rule (3) over the coming weeks as the decision may boil down to the actual time I post the system choice on the forum. I’ll monitor

[slipperytoad]

Thursday 20th March

Ludlow

4.30 Ludlow Racing Partnership Handicap Hurdle Race

Win: Corran Ard (3rd)

4/7

P/L: 7 pts[/color:2lod4ogo]

Note:
I know this is a experimental 100% mechanical selection system but having just watched the race, something doesn’t seem right

Here the betting pattern for Corran Ard before the off

5 11-2 6 7 15-2

During the race he was ridden out the back 3 lengths off the leaders, ran on strongly to take 3rd. In summary he was never at any stage put into a position to challenge the leaders. Funny how his drift in the market was proportional to his performance in the race

Or am I talking out of my virtual pocket.

[Author]

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