[snowman]

You’ve got to be kidding right Matron?

The 3.30 at Ling. Really? REally? REALLY?!!

[snowman]

How about a variable staking plan Ian.

It’s still a level plan in as much as you always put the same amount on every 6/4 shot,3/1 shot and so on – but it varies so that you always attempt to win the same No of points.

e.g.  Attempt to win 5 pts.

Even money stake 5 to win 5<br>2/1 stake 2.5 to win 5<br>1/2 stake 10 to win 5

Personally it is extremely rare that I back odds on but I know you’ll be having to with this system.

This staking plan ensures you have bigger stakes on the horses that IN THEORY should have a better chance of winning i.e. the short priced ones.

Finally set a minimum stake below which you wont drop ( 1 Pt? ) even if the selection is 6 or 7/1.

Just an idea Ian. Good luck with whatever you choose.

[snowman]

Hi Matron I’ve dipped into this thread here and there and of course read page 1, but it’s only just struck me that today,for example, you are putting up the 4.20 at Ham. as the race selected.

Have you changed the selection criteria from just ‘First Fav’? I assume you have – but what to?

[snowman]

Didn’t I tell you Matron would come good when it was fav stats you needed.:cool:

[snowman]

Hi Ian. Is there any reason why the favs in the first race of a meeting should fare better than favs overall? i.e. The types of race? – I’ve noticed a lot of meetings schedule Maiden races in the first couple of races and I believe their strike rate for favs is higher than favs overall.

Matron will probably correct me if I’m wrong.<br>( Matron is head and shoulders above me re: strike rate of favs.)

Will watch with interest. Good luck.

[snowman]

Hi Larry i’ve seen you post similar replies to similar questions before. A question for you if you don’t mind answering that is.<br>If you have taken a position on an event that ‘A’ will happen – lets say the FTSE will rise. If it does indeed rise do you ALWAYS hedge to make sure you get a profit? Or do you sometimes think ‘this is going the right way i’ll leave it’ and risk losing but having potential of bigger return.

I only ask because i’ve sometimes bet on cricket, hedged and ended up with small profit, but if I had left it to my gut instincts the initial bet would have provided much better returns.

Just interested how a pro’ does it. :cool:

[snowman]

This name rings a bell. I’m sure this has been queried/requested/discussed before on this forum.  Like IanC i can’t believe somebody hasn’t got a copy if it’s been doing the rounds.

[snowman]

I dont think I can add anything eye opening to this debate, but being of a ‘certain age’ as JAR politely puts it I have obviously come across VDW discussions before.

I was led to believe that he was a strong believer in looking for " better quality races" I know thats a bit vague but presumably prize money would be the guide.

Someone else has mentioned last 3 placings and I too was told that this was a mainstay of his method.

A short precis of what I was told re VDW:-

1) Select the better races on the day.<br>2) Look for horses that were placed 1st – 4th in either of their last TWO runs (current season)<br>3) From these look at the No of days since last run, pick the most recent 6 runners ( only if qualified under 2) above)<br>From these 6 add together placings for last THREE runs (current season AND previous if necessary) n.b. unplaced counts as 10<br>4) Concentrate on those with the smallest score.

Robert is absolutely right it is at this point that your own analytical work has to take over.

Does the above look like anybody elses understanding of what VDW was about?

Interesting thread Robert.

[snowman]

Hey RD, Im not keen on stopping at a winner either. Winners just dont come in that sort of regular order do they?

By about 4.20pm today I was 11 points up and decided to call it a day. I dont normally – if ive got more horses to back i back them and all too often a small profit becomes a small loss or a decent day becomes just a modest one.

Dont get me wrong 11 points is a superb day for me but……………

You’ve guessed it my last 3 which all went unbacked were

Toi Express, Billie John and Itemise

DOH!!!<br>

[snowman]

I think it is possible to make a living purely from betting, but the apprenticeship is a long one. I agree with Larry’s 1st point whole heartedly you have to do the work yourself and live and die (figuratively speaking) by your decisions.

I am not earning a living from betting but am working towards getting myself into a position, where i can at least try it. Like Keith I dont want to be in my dotage and wondering – what if?

I constantly learn lessons as I suspect do most of us. I agree that discipline is as important as any lesson to be learnt. Anybody can have a bet but it sometimes takes strong will power not to.

<br>

[snowman]

Daz even though you haven’t managed to post I hope you and others are following your system. 3 winners out of 3 today – just what the doctor ordered:biggrin:

Catterick

2.45 Sharp Hat – won 6/1

3.45 Espada – won 7/2

4.45 Scotts View – won 5/2

[snowman]

Well Daz thats a full month.

The win only stats for June produced a small loss, but not a disaster by any means.

86 bets  –  172 pts out  –  165.1 pts in  –  6.9 pts loss

Good luck for next month with this Daz, hope you keep the win onlly stats in, overall they have been ok.(In the week prior to June they showed a 35 pt profit)

[snowman]

Daz sorry to be a pain, my paper has Lucky Archer as the pick in the 2.25 courtesy of a 2nd place last time – rating 25.

wheras Moving Experience has a 4th place and a course win – rating 20

Also Daz in the 4.35 Law breaker has two 2nds and a distance win for a rating of 70 wheras Bond Boy is I think only rated 60?

(Edited by snowman at 2:02 pm on June 30, 2002)

[snowman]

Glad to see you back Daz, hope you have brought a change of luck with you!!:biggrin:

[snowman]

Thursday’s selections – All at Carlisle

3.00 – Al Azhar – U/P

3.30 – Procession – U/P

4.30 – Washington Pink – U/P

5.00 – Loughlorien – 2nd 4/1

(Edited by snowman at 7:44 pm on June 27, 2002)

[snowman]

Wednesday’s selections

All at Carlisle

3.30 – Nigrasine – Unplaced

4.00 – Kirkby’s Treasure – Unplaced

4.30 – Executive Choice – 3rd 13/2

5.00 – Tappit – Unplaced

(Edited by snowman at 9:50 am on June 27, 2002)

[snowman]

Hi Daz,

I’m assuming work committments are keeping you busy so just updating thread for you.

It would be a shame so close to the end of June not to run your system until at least the end of the month.

Monday – 2 unplaced horses and  1 NR so 4 pts staked.

Tuesday’s selections were all at Beverley.

3.15  –  Noble Pasao  – Unplaced

3.45  –  Mehmaas – Unplaced

4.45  –  Tick Tock – Unplaced

6 pts staked – Nil return

                                —————————-

I will post Wednesday’s selections a little before racing if you don’t manage to do so yourself.

Hope everything OK and that you are not ill.

Cheers

[Author]

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