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  • #991
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    This is really simple and I’ve started this after following Matron’s First Favourite for a long time.

    Very very simple.  Select the unnamed favourite in the FIRST race at EVERY meeting – GB & Ireland.

    If there is joint or co then lowest numbered horse is the selection.

    Started this August 1.  Here are the figures

    GB  56wins/119races  SR 47.06%  Ret 147.42 = roi 23.88%<br>IRE 11wins/35races    SR 31.43%  Ret   28.02 = roi (19.94)%

    TOTAL   67/154    SR 43.51%   Ret 175.44 = roi  13.92%

    <br>For September, including today Wednesdays results we have 48 wins out of 94 races and at 1 point per race we have 122.24 from 94 staked, which is 30% roi.  The figures for Ireland are doing particularly well 67% roi.  I will detail these later.  (EDIT -This pargraph is a lot of b******s the figures are as the post following!!!)

    Watch it nosedive now I’ve done this!

    Ian

    <br>(Edited by IanC at 11:17 am on Sep. 26, 2002)<br>

    (Edited by IanC at 4:09 pm on Sep. 26, 2002)

    #42923
    darrell
    Member
    • Total Posts 651

    Hi Ian C.

    Good luck with this one, will look forward to seeing your results. the return on outlay look very promising.

    Catch you later<br>DAZ:cool:

    #42925
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    The figures upto and including yesterday, Wednesday are as follows:

    GB  32wins/70races = sr 45.71%  returns 82.07 = roi 17.24%

    IRE  16wins/25races = sr 64.00% returns 40.17 = roi 60.68%

    TOTAL  48/95 = sr 50.5%  returns 122.24 = roi 28.67%

    Thursday was 1 from 4  @ 4/7  Return = 1.57

    So when the return exceeds the number of races we are going in the right direction!

    I will not publish the totals now until end of month.

    Ian

    #42926
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    The figures upto and including yesterday, Wednesday are as follows:

    GB  32wins/70races = sr 45.71%  returns 82.07 = roi 17.24%

    IRE  16wins/25races = sr 64.00% returns 40.17 = roi 60.68%

    TOTAL  48/95 = sr 50.5%  returns 122.24 = roi 28.67%

    Thursday was 1 from 4  @ 4/7  Return = 1.57

    So when the return exceeds the number of races we are going in the right direction!

    I will not publish the totals now until end of month.

    Ian

    #42930
    kersly
    Member
    • Total Posts 949

    Hi Ian,<br>A very healthy strike rate so far Ill be watching with interest.<br>kersly

    #42933
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Hi Ian. Is there any reason why the favs in the first race of a meeting should fare better than favs overall? i.e. The types of race? – I’ve noticed a lot of meetings schedule Maiden races in the first couple of races and I believe their strike rate for favs is higher than favs overall.

    Matron will probably correct me if I’m wrong.<br>( Matron is head and shoulders above me re: strike rate of favs.)

    Will watch with interest. Good luck.

    #42935
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Snowman

    I’ve no sure idea why that is.   I’ve read through the whole of First Favourite and there are discussions in that about that somehow it seems to be the case that more favourites win.   Maybe, as you say, a lot of Maidens – the first race is often a "weaker" one, and where there’s no real form, those forecasting prices ain’t doing it with a pin (I assume).  If that is the case then they must have some indication of what is more likely to win, hence making it favourite in the forecast.   Having just written that I’ve just had a thought – from now on I’ll check what RP shows as forecast favourite as to what actually wins/is favourite.

    Ian

    #42936
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Snowman

    I’ve no sure idea why that is.   I’ve read through the whole of First Favourite and there are discussions in that about that somehow it seems to be the case that more favourites win.   Maybe, as you say, a lot of Maidens – the first race is often a "weaker" one, and where there’s no real form, those forecasting prices ain’t doing it with a pin (I assume).  If that is the case then they must have some indication of what is more likely to win, hence making it favourite in the forecast.   Having just written that I’ve just had a thought – from now on I’ll check what RP shows as forecast favourite as to what actually wins/is favourite.

    Ian

    #42939
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5828

    Hi all,

    Here are some stats for you based over the last ten years.

    Flat

    Backing on all the favourites in all races would give you a strike rate of 33% and would give you a return of 92%.

    Backing on the favourite on the first meeting of the day<br>would give a strike rate of 35% and return of 93%.

    National Hunt

    Backing on all the favourites in all races would give you a strike rate of 38% and would give you a return of 92%.

    Backing on the favourite on the first meeting of the day<br>would give a strike rate of 41% and return of 96%.

    The first meeting in the day will give you a slight edge.

    As you can see backing to level stakes will leave you in a negative position over a period of time.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    <br>

    #42942
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Well I never!

    A bad day – all lost and was truly summed up at Listowel, where the highest numbered joint favourite won and the lowest almost managed to finish third in a two horse race.

    Still, tomorrow is another day – thank goodness!

    Ian

    #42945
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Didn’t I tell you Matron would come good when it was fav stats you needed.:cool:

    #42948
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Matron

    I’m fairly new to all this (15 months) so excuse my stupidity if this is a stupid question, but I don’t quite (I think) understand your stats.

    I can understand "all favourites in all races" – obvious, but what do you mean by "favourite on first meeting of the day"?   To me the first meeting of the day is the meeting where the time of the first race is earlier than all the others – is that what your stats are based on.  If that is correct then I assume (dangerous!) that your stats are based on the favourite of all the races at that meeting ie. going down the card.   What I’m doing is going across the top of all the cards on a particular day.  Do that stats you’ve shown apply to that or have I got it all round my neck.

    From what I can see anyway backing favourites is not the way to big money.

    Apologies if this is a stupid post.

    Ian

    #42950
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5828

    Hi Ian,

    You are not being stupid at all – probably the way I worded the reply was not very clear as I was in a bit of a hurry when I posted it.

    You are quite right in your assumption that I was implying that the "First Meeting" is the same as your "First Timed Meeting" of the day.

    As you can see, long term backing blindly will lose you money. Backing "short priced favourites" can be profitable, but you have to maintain a high strike rate<br>and use "rolling doubles" as a staking plan. (If you get time go through the "First Favourite" thread as MrE posted some valauble advice with regards to this.)

    I think you will have to chose certain types of races to give you the edge. I will post more stats when I get a chance.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #42951
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Matron

    Thank you for your reply.  I’ll look through the thread to find MrE’s words of wisdom.

    <br>Now…. Another bad day at the office.  One out of six @ 7/4.  That gives a return of 2.75 from a stake of 6.

    Tomorrow is another day….

    #42953
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Sunday results.

    2 from 5 @ 6/4 & 1/2.

    Return of 4 from stake of 5.

    Having read through the thread as Matron advised and having found MrE’s rolling doubles, it is interesting to note that the two winners were in consecutively timed races, so if I’d have applied rolling doubles I would have had a return of 3.75 against a stake of 4.00 thus showing a deficit of only 0.25.

    Can anybody give me some ideas.  I can’t sit and wait to see the result of one race before betting on the next using rolling doubles.   Is there any other scheme, relatively risk free as rolling doubles, whereby I bet in one go before the off.

    Would a single bet on each plus a series of doubles first race with second, second with third etc.  Does that work or would the relatively short prices blow a hole in it?

    <br>IanC

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