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This is an original system (as far as I know) which aims to find decent priced winners in non- handicap races(not maiden races).
I’ve called it ‘second level’ because it is designed to avoid obvious favourites at short odds while still pinpointing horses with a live chance. Avoiding the top rated band of horses usually keeps you clear of overbet and therefore unprofitable favourites.
The reasoning is that horses that are rated within a band 6 to10lbs below the top-rated horse are worth considering, particularly if their form is solid and they have a high wins/runs ratio.
It’s rather simplistic, but I believe that you can imply solid form from a Topspeed rating within 10lbs of a horse’s Racing Post Rating(RPR). I also think a wins to runs ratio of 20% is indicative of a useful horse in the better grades.The Rules.
1. Select only non- handicap races, which are not maidens, with a minimum top-rated RPR of 100(Flat) and 130(Jumps).
2. Eliminate any horse rated within 5lbs of the top-rated.
3. Identify horses rated in the band 6-10lbs below the top-rated.
4. Eliminate any of these that:
a. Do not have a topspeed rating within 10lbs of their RPR
b. Do not have a wins to runs ratio of at least 20%
c. Have not won for 2 years.
5. If there is more than one qualifier, select the one with the longest forecast odds in the RP betting forecast. If they are the same price, take the one with the highest rating. If you still cannot split them, divide stakes and back both.First selections tomorrow.
Good luck with this Artemis.
Should compliment your ‘Surprise Handicap Winner’ system nicely
Saturday 23 February
Fairyhouse
4.50 One Cool Cookie 4th/8 7/2[/color:ylqpk01e]Lingfield
3.45 Ceremonial Jade 2nd/12 6/1[/color:ylqpk01e]
5.10 Alfresco [b:ylqpk01e]2nd/6 5/2[/b:ylqpk01e][/color:ylqpk01e]Newcastle
1.50 Allistathebarrister 2nd/8 11/2Stakes 4pts Loss 4pts[/color:ylqpk01e]
Sunday 24 February
Naas
3.45 Ballytrim 4th/7 4/1Totals
Stakes 5pts Loss 5pts [/color:2h3bs25z]Two bets at Nad Al Sheba.
4.45 Hurricane Spirit 9th/10 16/1[/color:2tfh3ari]
6.45 Law Lord 6th/10 9/1
Totals
Stakes 7pts Loss 7pts[/color:2tfh3ari]Friday 29 February
Doncaster 4.45 Sharp Reply Won 2/11[/color:2qz4tmo9]
I realise this hardly looks a typical ‘second level’ selection, but since it fits the system rules, I’ve got to go with it.
Totals
Stakes 8pts Loss 6.82pts[/color:2qz4tmo9]
Saturday 1 March
Doncaster
4.40 Top Cloud 3rd/6 13/8[/color:298lwbep]Kempton
1.45 I Have Dreamed 4th/9 5/2[/color:298lwbep]Totals
Stakes 10pts Loss 8.82pts[/color:298lwbep]Sunday 2 March
No bets today.
Monday 3 March and Tuesday 4 March
No bets today.
Thursday 6 March
Nad Al Sheba
4.45 Star Crowned 2nd/16 12/1[/color:16a40pto]
5.50 Illustrious Blue 8th/11 33/1[/color:16a40pto]
6.55 Traffic Guard 3rd/16 50/1[/color:16a40pto]Thurles
3.20 Mr Muji PU/14 8/1[/color:16a40pto]Totals to date
Stakes 14pts Loss 12.82pts[/color:16a40pto]Friday 7 March
Dundalk
7.40 King Of Queens 4th/5 2/1fTotals
Stakes 15pts Loss 13.82pts[/color:1vxllfrt]Saturday 8 March
No BetsSunday 9 March
Naas
3.10 Made In Taipan Won/11 5/2fTotals
Stakes 16pts Loss 11.32pts[/color:396nwqwn]Monday 10 March
No bets
Tuesday 11 March
Cheltenham
2.00 Deep Purple 9th/22 16/1[/color:1axxgtqr]
2.35 Morodima 9th/14 33/1[/color:1axxgtqr]
3.15 Katchit Won/15 10/1[/color:1axxgtqr]Totals
Stakes 19pts Loss 3.32pts[/color:1axxgtqr]Thursday 13 March
Cheltenham
12.30 Over The Creek 2nd/20 7/1Totals
Stakes 20pts loss 4.32pts [/color:3idrjlv5]Friday 14 March
A bit late(internet problem)
Cheltenham
12.30 Theatre Girl 5th/12 9/2[/color:14pcml6d]
2.15 Serabad 6th/14 14/1[/color:14pcml6d]
3.30 Exotic Dancer 5th/12 17/2[/color:14pcml6d]
4.05 Amicelli Won/23 33/1[/color:14pcml6d]Dundalk
7.10 Colombard 4th/4 6/1[/color:14pcml6d]Totals
Stakes 25pts Profit 24.68pts[/color:14pcml6d]
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