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  • #6754
    arkle55
    Member
    • Total Posts 114

    HI LADS
    Can anybody tell me or do they no, the best web sites to find out the information for the past 5 10 15 and20 years if possible, what was the longest run and average run of consecutive winning favorites, and what was the average prices returned.

    THANK YOU
    PAUL

    #145195
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Paul

    Adrian Massey’s site will give you some excellent stats on winning runs of favs.

    His stats go back to 1991 I believe, so not quite as far as you were asking, but a pretty long way nevertheless.

    Once on his site look for the favourites statistics button, you can choose ‘All Races’ or just 2 or 3 year olds or Handicaps etc. When you’ve decided scroll down to the bottom and you’ll get a table of longest runs of winners and longest runs of losers for that category.

    Hope this helps 8)

    #145223
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    arkle55,

    It is possible to estimate the probability of a sequence of losers or winners if you know the average price of the horses you are backing.

    The formula for a losing sequence is:

    P = (1- Prob W) raised to the power N

    where P is the probability of the losing sequence on a scale of 0 to 1, 0 being impossible and 1 being certain(so, 0.5 is evens)

    Prob W is the probability of a win, in this case average odds, converted into probabilities on a scale of 0 to 1.

    N is the number of bets in the sequence.

    I have an Excel Spreadsheet which covers a variety of odds and goes up to a sequence of 12. If you would like me to email it to you, PM me.

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