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I am very keen on the chances of Nicky Richards Noble Alan at 25/1
Take a look again at the Cheltenham 2nd to Font. he was given a pretty shocking ride…over confident to be kind. His position at Cheltenham grossly understated his ability.
I got on at 50/1 each way for the original Fighting Fifth on the dead eight… but obviously we learned nothing in the end.
25/1 looks a very fair price on a track that should suit admirably.spot on apr’
Take a look again at the Cheltenham 2nd to Font. he was given a pretty shocking ride…over confident to be kind. His position at Cheltenham grossly understated his ability.
I got on at 50/1 each way for the original Fighting Fifth on the dead eight… but obviously we learned nothing in the end.
25/1 looks a very fair price on a track that should suit admirably.[quote="
That’s an interesting thought. Since the beginning of the seventies there have been 10 horses that have won the King George more than once
Pendil, Captain Christy, Silver Buck, Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid,
The Fellow, One Man, See More Business, Kicking King & Kauto Staryet only 2 for the Gold Cup, L’Escargot & Best Mate
What conclusion can we draw form this. Is the King George easier to win or does it bring the cream to the top ? Are there more good horses at 3m2F than at 3M or is it that the Cheltenham course is a great leveller of horses abilities and favours braveness over talent ? Or could it be that certain Cheltenham type horses don’t bother with the King George because it doesn’t suit, such as Jodami or Denman. I think its a shame Denman doesn’t have a go at the King George as I think he would go close, wasn’t Burrough Hill Lad a similar strapping type who managed the Hennessy, King George and Gold Cup in the same calendar year ?
aaron’ I think it proves just what a tough race the Gold Cup is to win twice. A lot of the dual KG winners you list also won a Gold Cup…7/10.
So winning both is fairly regular occurence and winning more than one KG is also frequent. The GC winners list is diluted slightly by less classy winners who took advantage of conditions or less than stellar renewals. The conditions at Kempton are always more likely to discourage (and make less probable) a similar tilt.Our Vic is the interesting horse for me in the KG this year.
He comes to Kempton first time out as last year when he was a well beaten 2nd.
He then ran well at Pillar meeting, won the Ryanair at the festival and reversed the KG form when beating Kauto in the Aintree Bowl on a flat 3miles 1f.
The stable is well capable of returning a top performer first time out.
If you take the view that KS isn’t as good (I have) then he has an excellent chance against a host of horses unproven at the trip.Our Vic e.w. at 10/1 NRNB with Stan James for the King George is very fair considering that if he doesn’t run you get your cash back
Our Vic e.w. 10/1 NRNB with Stan James for the King George.
Straight there as last year when he was a well beaten 2nd.
He then ran well at Pillar meeting, won the Ryanair at the festival and reversed the KG form when beating Kauto in the Aintree Bowl on a flat 3miles 1f.
The stable is well capable of returning a top performer first time out.
If you take the view that KS isn’t as good (I have) then he has an excellent chance against a host of horses unproven at the trip.And if he doesn’t run you get your cash back…best bet of festive season.
I do think Rainbow View looks the part but her foaling date of May 21st, has to be a big worry. I too will look for something to oppose her …probably on the day, no ante post play.
Its usually a staying horse that wins the Triumph though…isn’t it Bul?
Katchit is a bit of an exception and even he wouldn’t be he quickest Champion Hurdler. I am a big advocate of treating the New Course at Cheltenham as a completely different course from the Old and the New takes some getting for a 4-y-o.
I know you are a fan of Celestial Halo for the World Hurdle… I will be sticking to staying types for the Triumph… Simarian my only bet so far.Interesting approach Bul’…a sort of betting trend analysis.
Looks like a cracking heat tomorrow…good luck with your fellow.
Binocular didn’t make the Triumph field though…lets hope they have a more traditional approach this time..all the best.Regarding "chefs de race", you do realise, don’t you, that there are no objective criteria which determine a stalion’s possible ennoblement to "chefdom"? The sole criterion is that Dr Roman says so (I am not joking).quote]
Yes, I do realise the dosage numbers are driven from selections of sires which are not objective. I think most people do. However they are not ‘arbitory’ selections of sires which is how Tony Morris described them in his Q&A. That is I think, quite different.
I have tried to gain some experience in a number of handicapping tools, speed ratings, collateral handicapping and dosage are few examples. What struck me about them all is just how much of the numbers based approaches are subjective and are down to individual interpretation, inclusion and ommission.
I could spend hours for example doing speed ratings on a big meeting and then just have to make a decision whether or not I believed a big number which was out of kilter with the rest of the card. Often I would rely on subjective factors like my eye or the trainers post race comments.
Dosage is interesting, limited and useful …it is a handy tool and has brought me some success and some failures when used on a tiny number of races. Whilst the failures have outnumbered the successes because they have been ante post successes the odds have been in my favour.
As to Dosage being scientific…no, not by the standards of actual science but in the context of horse racing where tiny sample sizes are used to fill page after page of newspaper analysis and tipping on trends, ground conditions are often unknown or deliberatly mis-stated and race distances which are regularly incorrect to use just a few examples, it has nothing to be ashamed of.
The rabidity of its critics is also amusing.Lol, i thought it wouldn’t take long.
I understand why many don’t like it but it has proved profitable for me down the years. I like an ante post punt and it is often invaluable in ruling out false favourites as well as narrowing contenders a wee bit.Incidenatlly, whilst I very much enjoy Tony Morris and have to disagree that he gave an ‘erudite demolition’ of dosage in his Q&A. In this particular case he made two points… the first a simplistic generalisation of the theory and the second a bizarre comparison of human and thoroughbred breeding. Unless they do things very different in the Morris household, humans are not bred to any specific attributes. Whereas racehorses are bred to exhibit two main attributes…speed and stamina. In these circumstances it is possible the diversity found amongst children might be reduced or controlled in breeds with a limited performance target.
In fairness though, when given more space I have seen TM raise some very valid points on the short comings of dosage and point out some difficult problems with the theory.
Still, dosage is something I find interesting and another factor to weigh and consider in the long weeks between the Racing Post Trophy and the 2000 Guineas.
‘a bit’ is about right Gerald, http://www.chef-de-race.com is a good site and pretty much the bible. The guys on there are really helpful and I have had a number of informative and entertaining email exchanges with Steve Roman. It takes a long time to work out the numbers yourself so http://www.pedigreequery.com is invaluable for getting the numbers quickly, for every horse in recent history.
A couple of words of warning firstly dosage should only be used in attendance with good form or prospect of form.
Secondly, admitting you think it has any value will often bring a large deluge of ridicule from many on a horse racing forum.I have found it to be very profitable particularly in 3 races…the 2000 Guineas, The Derby & the St Leger. The Kentucky Derby has been a bit patchy in last 10 years but previously was very informative.
I also developed it as a useful tool and you can do a sort of reverse engineering process in late 2-y-o races. The Racing Post Trophy has proved fruitful for me.
In fairness, I had a lot of success between 2000 and 2005 but it has been a bit barren, apart from Authorized, in the last 3 years.I have backed three at this stage and don’t expect to add any more.
Rip Van Winkle…I think he will stay, dam was speedy but dosage is positive and that does not yet include Galileo influence. Form is good (not brilliant), stable confidence is significant form this quarter and the numbers are promising.
Kite Wood…I was at Doncaster and I was very impressed with him physically and on the track. Ascot was encouraging and is in good hands.
Age Of Aquarius… i love his pedigree and was impressed with his performaqnce at Dundalk, missed some big engagements which was a bit worrying but I thought he showed well on awful ground late in the season in France. Looking for a good show in Ballysax/Derrinstown or maybe Dante. Huge winner for me.
It was a long time ago…late 70’s maybe so forgive me if I mis-remember.
There was an amateur riders hurdle race at Sandown and a horse called Ali, ridden by a Norwegian or Italian, I think. In the build up to the race Scott, who was leading the broadcast, without actually bluntly saying so gave the impression that Ali was by far the best horse and was ridden by…by far the best rider. He didn’t actually wink at the camera but it came very close. The message was clear ..this will win. It duly did by a wide margin having been heavily supported. Might have been returned about 6s.
Anyway after a very professional wrap up, at the end of the slot and before a break, Scott looked directly into the camera and said quietly and sincerely…" some of us have helped ourselves".
Apologies if the details are awry but I thought that little moment beautifuuly combined the love of racing and the thrill of landing a nice bet.
and the sprinter Rip van winkle
I would have thought he was more of a Derby horse than a sprinter.
I would agree with you Bos’ that he looks a two miler and I was surprised by TB’s remarks, but they were right after the race so with reflection they may take another view.
He has run 9 times now (thats a career for most NH horses) so he shouldn’t be raw imho. His jumping wasn’t raw it was fine, he ran straight and seemed to know his job as you would expect from a horse with his number of runs. Its just a matter of putting his head in front…was it fitness or was it resolution?
I not at all sure that a big field will suit him as he was uncompetitive in those conditions last year. As to his resolution I think you can make a case both ways …I would like to see him win a battle though.
I think its fair to say I am still in the sceptic camp but thats probably because I tend to look at every horse from an ante post perspective and he is one I would definetly swerve from that POV.