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Interesting race, can’t believe no-one has started a thread on it yet. Aigle D’Or was mighty impressive last time, ashkazar is on his seasonal debut and numide is still well handicapped but my thoughts are geared towards Belcantista and Takethebreeze.
Any opinions?
i’v had a fiver on take the breeze @ 25/1. i backed numide or whatever you call it last time and he ran a cracker, i’d back him again if i can got 10/1.
Khyber Kim has a lot going for him and will enjoy the cut. Travelled well last time out at Newbury and just failed to hold off a well-backed mare who was receiving plenty of weight. Might have needed it and should improve. Only up 5lbs from Newbury which I think is manageable.
I’ve backed Ashkazar tonight at 7/1. If he’s going to be Champion Hurdle class this season, which I believe he is, he must take beating here off 147. Don’t forget he was giving Crack Away Jack 2lbs in the Fred Winter.
Two interesting improver’s at the bottom of the handicap are Prince Taime at 16/1 and Spear Thistle at 20/1. Prince Taime ran very well in a Listed hurdle after a break the last day at Newbury and is virtually unexposed. Spear Thistle is almost a new horse since they put the cheekpieces on. The handicapper might just be getting to grips with him now but with conditions in his favour the price looks fair.
Actually looking at the weights I think the top two (also the first two in the betting) are going to have a hard time at the weekend.
I dont think we’ll see the best of ashkazar at the weekend, a staying type on a speedy enough track, if it came up soft it may play to his stamina but then I didnt think that he looked that great on his two runs on soft last season as he has shown himself to be on gd-sft. I missed his hurdling debut on gd-sft (but that run was good enough to make him Triumph fav until his defeat by franchoek on soft) and didnt think of him as a serious horse for cheltenham until the imperial cup performance. IMO he doesnt have conditions optimal but he’s running off top weight 11:12.
I’d say similar simlar about aigle d’or off 11:11, there will not be as much in his favour as his last run at cheltenham and with those two heading the market they look there to be shot at, even with a rock solid front running performance I think they will struggle to show their best form.
I find it easier to believe that something at the bottom end of the weights might have huge improvement on these conditions, especially with few being lightly raced and highly fancied. Numide as an example has everything in his favour if he is in form and is getting 15lbs off Ashkazar and 14 of aigle d’or.
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Bulwark
Can’t agree that Ashkazar will be disadvantaged by the Ascot track.
The horse showed plenty of speed in a steadily run Imperial Cup, and on faster ground than is likely on Saturday.
Both the course and the forecast g/s ground should suit his running style perfectly and. given his Fred Winter performance, top weight may not be too much of an imposition either.I thought ashkazar actually turned the imperial cup into a bit of a stamina test, I was on free world that day and was wanting him to move away from the front the whole way round as could see they were going pretty quick, before he eventually just completely emptied. He has done well to finish second in a slow fred winter, but it remains to be seen if he can give so much weight away when everything is not 100% in his favour, and as he is second fav, I’ll have to take him on, as IMO he’ll have to be very good on the day to win this.
I like hobbs horse Belcantista, he was listed class in france on the flat, has taken to hurdles well, goes on soft, is really well fancied, and is taking 22lbs of the top pair (21 from aigle d’or). He would look more than capable of throwing in a 140 performance which would mean ashkazar would need to throw in a 162 performance on his seasonal reappearance to match him, on these terms, to beat him. Horse progression is hard to guage but I would expect a few of the bottom ones to have a decent level of improvement there than those at the top.
I am very keen on the chances of Nicky Richards Noble Alan at 25/1
Take a look again at the Cheltenham 2nd to Font. he was given a pretty shocking ride…over confident to be kind. His position at Cheltenham grossly understated his ability.
I got on at 50/1 each way for the original Fighting Fifth on the dead eight… but obviously we learned nothing in the end.
25/1 looks a very fair price on a track that should suit admirably.I’m with Kyber Kim for this one – I got a nudge about his last race, he was backed off the boards and IMO should have won if the jockey pressed on earlier.
Think he is around 12’s which is cracking EW bet
All over Aigle D’or here, money for Ashkazar could sway me towards that though.
MY worry with him is that David Pipe said last season he thought he could be a Champion Hurdle horse and it surpries me he has opted for arace like this for him. Surely a more sensible route would be one of the trials than giving away weightin a competitive handicap like this?
I have a feeling and it is only a feeling that Pipe has already decided he simply isn’t up to Champion Hurdle standard. It wouldn’t surprise me if he needs this race either but I could end up with egg all over my face. I wouldn’t put anyone backing him though not after the way he won the Imperial….but Crack Away Jack as backward he was at the time did make mincemeat of him
Nicky Henderson thinks the world of Aigle D’or and there will be a lot of sad faces if he can’t go very close to winning this but he will have to be as good as they think to win. He was catching pigeons before Cheltenham and MIck Fitgerarald was unusally bullish about his chances but he flopped badly on the day. He apparantly did a great piece of work with Binocular recently but the gallops are not the track.
I’ll backed him but reduced my stake and doubled him with Binocular who I am hoping will win with his head in his chest. Mainly because if he loses I’ll be sick as a parrot and won’t want to watch anymore racing
You don’t half talk some tripe mate- why not take advantage of a mark like 147 giving away weight to inferiors rather than taking on the cracks at this stage? And as for him not being fit- would you run your best hurdler half-fit under 11-12 in a competitive handicap? Gimme a break!
When looking at the weights earlier in the week I couldnt have had Ashkazar or Aigle D’Or at all, but after watching a few of the races today I wouldnt be as confident in taking them on, a few of the races have seen some tired looking finishes, but then if Ashkazar manages to cut out a serious gallop, he may be setting things up for aigle d’or on this ground. Will be an interesting race.
No, this is the what do you fancy thread? Marb.
No doubting Sentry duty is a good horse, and no reason not to fancy him, but its a competetive race and everyone will have their own fancy, but like most of the top ones he’ll have to throw in something very good to win this IMO, looks to have everything in his favour though and i wouldnt rule it out.
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