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marb
Not ‘everything’ is in Sentry Duty’s favour!
Given his previously poor hurdle form with any cut in the ground, I’d say tomorrow’s going would be very much against him.I rate Ashkazar very highly, i think he will give the weight away tomorrow
and i expect him to be backed accordingly! trouble is he has "Arkle ch" written all over him!After watching todays racing, and going back through the card, I think that Prince Taime and Takethebreeze would look to be most suited to the way things will pan out tomorrow. Interestingly enough Paul Nicholls says on Channel 4 teletext that Takethebreeze e/w is his best bet for tomorrow.
ONE FOR FUN. Going through the list Im tempted to have a very small e/w on European Dream @ 50-1 who may be well handicapped, he came good at round about this time last year when he chased home five dream at sandown, giving five dream 7lbs, now five dream is giving him 16lbs. By memory that was similar ground to tomorrow and it was quite a pacy race, as tomorrow may turn out to be, have always thought that horse has a decnt race in him. May go bigger than 50s tomorrow however.
ONE FOR FUN. Going through the list Im tempted to have a very small e/w on European Dream @ 50-1 who may be well handicapped, he came good at round about this time last year when he chased home five dream at sandown, giving five dream 7lbs, now five dream is giving him 16lbs. By memory that was similar ground to tomorrow and it was quite a pacy race, as tomorrow may turn out to be, have always thought that horse has a decnt race in him. May go bigger than 50s tomorrow however.
For old time’s sake (I maintained an unofficial blog on his yard for three years) I’d love to see Guesty land a big prize, as it’s been thin and thinner for him during 2008 with two viruses knocking his Carburton yard sideways.
European Dream’s owners You Trotters are due a big reward, too, not only for their loyalty, but also for keeping together as a partnership despite the constituent members being dispatched all over the north of England now (to whit: they were all at Bolton Wanderers when they first bought the horse in 2005, but Phil Brown is of course manager at Hull now and the involved playing staff mostly anywhere but Bolton).
The gelding is on or close to a career-high mark now, but he was in good enough heart again when romping home at Wetherby two races ago despite a mistake at halfway.
I’d slightly challenge the notion about him coming good this time last year, though, Bulwark – the RPRs and Timeform ratings may indicate that much, but with European Dream it’s fundamentally a case of whether he has a race run to suit, be that at any time of year (he has won well into the summer on the level). Whether it’s a Flat mile or 2m hurdle, he has just the one trick, and that’s to pelt home late on having been held up off a true gallop, such as he emphatically didn’t get at Sandown last time.
The omens for tomorrow are good in that regard – I can’t believe that none of Cuan Na Grai, Alsadaa or indeed Ashkazar will try to make it a proper test.
I’d also take it as a bit of a clue that Guesty thinks there is still some more to come from European Dream by the fact that he’s granted him a third season over hurdles now – it has generally been the case that he can’t get the no-better-than-fair ones into novices’ handicap chases as soon as he can, whether they’re necessarily bred for that purpose or not.
Good luck, if you do decide to bite. I’d not put you off entirely!
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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marb
Sentry Duty has had 5 hurdle races:
2 on faster ground (time based) which he won by 7l & 6l.
3 on slower ground (again t.b.) which he lost by 13.5l, 83l, and 13l respectively.
Having said that, the 2m Kennel Gate Hdl was run today only 2 seconds above standard, and looking at the replay, the ground was appreciably faster on the straight course than the round, which reflects pretty much what happened with Tamarinbleu’s 2m chase win last season so, in truth, with a third of the race run on different ground it’s in the lap of the gods what the actual going will be.
Given that quirk, I can’t see Binocular being beaten though.Reet, he’s never ran on anything like soft ground over hurdles so coming to the conclusion you have surprises me. He ran twice on gd-st, coming 4/18 on debut and trailing well back in a hot Supreme Novices.
Be assured that the ground was at its softest on day one of the Festival (before the wind got to work on both the course and the corporate tents
), and that the official good to soft on which the Supreme Novices was run might just have been a whole increment softer.It should dry out a bit overnight at Ascot if the forecast is any guide, but whether that’s quick enough to improve Sentry Duty’s chances sufficiently is another matter altogether.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I don’t follow or bet on h’cap hurdles, but I quite like Mamlook. What I’m most worried about is that he won’t like tacky or soft ground. On the other hand it might help him as he might have more stamina than quite a few others in the field (although on breeding, I’m finding it difficult to work out where he gets him stamina from).
What I like most about him is that he’s won a Nov H’cap Hdle at Ascot, and is, I think, only 5lbs higher, and that he was a narrowly beaten second in the Ascot Stakes on the Flat. I’m hoping he just likes Ascot.Well done Marb, I said it would take some performance to win off that weight, and that was some performance, done my Belcantista
. Where will they go now with him, that must have been a 160ish performance surely?Sentry duty really looked a class prospect when beating Celestial Halo last year and somehow just went off the boil. I am going to horrifically aftertime here but i thought he was a cracking price
What a day of quality racing all in all, the best day of the season so far for all round quality IMO, and what about Nicky Henderson?
Brings out the new favorite for the Triumph on wednesday.
Cements Bincular at 6/4 for the champ hurdle today.
Then brings out Puchestowns, who cements himself from 6-1 into 9/4 fav for the world hurdle.
Then brings sentry duty along to win off a high weight in the ladbroke.
Did someone say he wasnt in as great form at the minute somewhere too?
Incredible string of training performances.
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I hope this theory that he can’t run on anything worse than good ground has been dispelled today.
Not at all, Marb.
The times of both 2m hurdle races today confirm the ground as no worse than good.
Both trainer and jockey expressed pre-race misgivings about Sentry Duty acting on the softer ground: they were obviously as put away by the actual state of the ground as most of the rest of us.I actually agree with reet regarding the ground today. Yesterday the horses looked to be finishing tired but today, not the case. I would say it was probably on the better side of gd-sft. I did mention before the ladbroke that the ground looked better today. Binocular and Celestial Halo dint look tired when finishing their races, after what looked a fair clip.
However, I actually dont see any reason why Sentry duty wouldnt go well in soft ground being by Kahyasi, I personally just think that last season they had a bit of trouble with him. Didnt he almost die from a gelding operation at the start of the season? He also never came in for much money in the supreme novice market, compared to khyber kim, and then binocular at the last minute (where on form he was more fancied by many punters than the other pair), which led me to believe he wasnt 100%. If he raced again on soft would fancy him to run to form or thereabouts.
You don’t half talk some tripe mate- why not take advantage of a mark like 147 giving away weight to inferiors rather than taking on the cracks at this stage? And as for him not being fit- would you run your best hurdler half-fit under 11-12 in a competitive handicap? Gimme a break!
Carv this is not being smart after the fact but I have been long enough at this game to realise you don’t run Champion Hurdle prospects in Handicaps….What I would do is irrelevant…….if you are so naive you think the Pipes give a rats ass about running horses unfit toget them down in the handicap then gawd love you mate….see a shrink.
You don’t half talk some tripe mate- why not take advantage of a mark like 147 giving away weight to inferiors rather than taking on the cracks at this stage? And as for him not being fit- would you run your best hurdler half-fit under 11-12 in a competitive handicap? Gimme a break!
Carv this is not being smart after the fact but I have been long enough at this game to realise you don’t run Champion Hurdle prospects in Handicaps.…What I would do is irrelevant…….if you are so naive you think the Pipes give a rats ass about running horses unfit toget them down in the handicap then gawd love you mate….see a shrink.
Make A Stand, Rooster Booster, Sizing Europe, Osana, Punjabi…..
The list is endless Fist.
In many ways a handicap is an ideal trial for the Champion. The Champion is usually truly run. Most condition hurdles are slowly run where as handicaps are usually truly run.
Form of the Pipe yard is in and out, to say the least. That may have something to do with his poor (ish) run.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWell done Marb great price made byAIglewho flopped again.Numide willlbe winning againand special mention to Peruvian whosurely must have had his balls on him after saying he could be a CH horse
Definitely wouldnt describe Carvs as naive fists, his strike rate speaks for itself.
This race was all about trying to guage horse progression, and many had Ashkazar down as being much better than the form he had shown to date. The thing with horse progression is sometimes you will be right and sometimes not, I know…
), and that the official good to soft on which the Supreme Novices was run might just have been a whole increment softer.
. Where will they go now with him, that must have been a 160ish performance surely?
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