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How can others of finished faster on Arc day if he came from last to grab first on the line?
He was last turning in, cruised past Sofast while Sofast was getting out of a pocket, and when Sofast got clear and revved up he was prob 1.5-2 lengths behind Dabirsim and reduced that to a diminishing 3/4 length on the line. I doubt Dabirsim won with too much in hand because he hit the front very late.
He didn’t look a Sprinter / non-stayer when pouncing last strides to win the 7f 2yo Group 1 on Arc day.
The second horse Sofast, once he extricated himself out of a pocket, finished harder than Dabirsim in that race and was very much cutting down the winner at the line. Sectional comparisons suggest it was an ordinary win and he had all favors too hugging the rail while the second horse struggled to find clear running.
I think Excelebration is an exceptional horse and I expect him to see off So You Think comfortably.
I do have trouble analyzing why he ran so poorly at Royal Ascot, he got a pretty bad check but should have done better regardless for mine. Marco Botti did say that he’s improved after the SJPStakes and that the horse just didn’t find his rhythm in that race so maybe I should forget about that.
Can’t blame the jockey for riding to instructions but sense seems to dictate that more even sections would’ve given the horse a better chance to win. Stumbled home in 27 seconds I read somewhere.
I don’t know about that run being below her best, but I’m a bit surprised at her programming as well. When they declared Ascot as a target I thought they’d surely give her a lighter domestic program this year. Maybe she can handle the racing and she’s picking up easy prize-money but if she were mine I wouldn’t be asking that much of her.
Manighar’s runs since moving to Moody are better than his Aussie runs for Cumani, and he’s going better now than he has with Cumani for some time. Moody has made him a stronger horse with a sharper sprint, which makes all the difference in the stop-start races of Australia. But in Cumani’s defense he’s probably run at this level in Europe in the past (cutting Americain to a neck in 2010 in France when that one was flying).
Sea Bird, only the most close-minded people will argue with the fact that European distance racing is stronger and has more depth than Australian, in terms of both bloodstock and racing (although racing is closer with the defection of Americain/Manighar). I don’t think Jollyp is one of those. But I question his claim that Australia has better trainers on the basis of one shaky data point of evidence.
The opposition to NH racing is natural in the world we live in. There has always been moral pushback against sports & activities on the margin. The same forces that outlawed stuff like dogfighting in the past are in this age zeroing on horse racing, and NH racing is an EXTREMELY easy target.
I’m relatively new to racing (compared to most on this forum) so perhaps I can provide a bit of an outsider’s perspective. The flat has always been my go for a myriad of reasons. Watching horses break down is terribly upsetting, but I accept the consequences as a fact of the sport, and I take solace in the fact that my jurisdiction does their very best.
But NH racing is difficult to defend. Yes, there is a great history and tradition. But flat racing is much safer and the far bigger product in terms of revenue, bloodstock, worldwide appeal, everything. To outsiders, jumping/hurdling is a dangerous and not widely popular sport that should be phased out. I myself don’t have a strong opinion on that issue.
I usually watch with some interest the biggest chases on the calender, but the Grand National is a definite exception. Any event in which such a large percentage of horses fail to finish on a yearly basis should not be run in my opinion. The first time I watched the race I thought it looked like a cavalry charge into enemy fire.
Jimmy Choux probably ran below his best in HK, Helmet likewise. That said, anyone saying that Frankel is just stallion hype is crazy, but Black Caviar has also proven herself as a freak.
Won’t matter if people talk Moody wont even ask the group that owns the horse i they want to have a go until he has a better idea of what he is up against.
To do that he’s got to run her against the best sprinters around and trounce them.
Like AIC says, the form is there on the board. Ortensia beat an in form and every chance Sole Power and others, and Star Witness came over and matched motors with European topliners. Black Caviar has obliterated those 2 compatriots so Moody knows what he’s up against. Granted Hoof It, Deacon Blues, and Bated Breath emerged after Ascot but only Deacon Blues looks a potential world-class star and he’s out.
But you’re right in that she’d have to win at Ascot and prove she handles the UK tracks before thinking about Frankel.
SYT would get trounced by Excelebration at a mile in my opinion, nevermind Frankel.
I agree, it seems to be a boom time for milers I think. Frankel aside, Excelebration and the retired Canford Cliffs are both better than Goldikova ever was for mine. Perhaps Immortal Verse still has some upside as well. But I still want to see SYT try it, if he blazes along and sets up a big break it will be exciting I think.
The richest mile down under is easily the G1 Doncaster Handicap, with virtually identical prize-money to the Sussex. Their other mile races don’t come close though; two-thirds the Doncaster/Sussex’s prize-money is next closest.
Goodwood is undulating but course record is 1:35.61 so not too stiff I don’t think? Course records on flat ovals are generally in the high 1:31s to 1:33 range. But remember, Black Caviar’s trainer sent her over 7f in Australia to ensure that she’d stay out 6f in the UK. Would they tackle a mile in the UK?
More insane prize-money stats:
Hong Kong’s Champions Mile has equal prize-money to the Doncaster/Sussex. The HK Mile is worth more, over 1.6 million pounds.
The Japanese are crazy. 2 international miles equal the HK mile’s 1.6 million. Their 1000 Guineas, a 3yo open-sex mile, a fillies & mares mile, and their DIRT mile all worth only slightly less: over 1.4 million pounds! They have two 2yo miles worth as much as the Doncaster/Sussex.
Dubai’s 9f Duty Free doubles the HK Mile/Japan’s 2 international miles.I don’t blame them running SYT here. Biggest purse in the world, and many turf horses handle the Tapeta fine. I’d be more unhappy about the decision to run in the Breeder’s Cup. The form of this year’s World Cup is shocking however.
I’d like to see him over 2400m again, he finished off harder than anything (possibly bar the winner) in the Arc.
Nice win by Cirrus Des Aigles. Sat outside the leader Bold Silvano. Pace seemed to be sedate but Cirrus ran a bit freely with the tactics adopted so I can’t begrudge the horse not winning by further.
Eagle Regiment scratched, a huge shame. He would’ve been as big a chance as Joy and Fun.
Sole Power should be favorite in front of Joy & Fun for mine. Joy & Fun a bit classier but he’s a 6-7f horse.I imagine that Treasure Beach was entered as a pacemaker for SNA. However with Jamie Spencer instead of Colm ODonoghue booked to ride for the Hays a new plan will have to be hatched.
I’m sure he’ll make the pace but won’t go overboard I don’t think. I’ve been thinking about the race, and there’s just no depth. Doesn’t he have to finish in the top 4? Surely he won’t be beaten home by the likes of Jakkalberry. Unless wild cards like Cavalryman and Bold Silvano step up he’ll go home with some nice prize-money.
