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According to Cumani, in one of those races Spencer dragged Mount Athos back to last contrary to instructions
I’m not interested enough to investigate by examining the race, but sounds plausible and an egregious enough error to incite Cumani to lash out
Looks comfortably better than All Too Hard (who was retired way too early) at 7f-mile, but may very well improve over further…
Not much use now, but I just read this thread. Scoping for mucus, which was the excuse given after his last place finish to Al Kazeem is a 100% legitimate excuse, they just can’t breathe (usually when it comes to the business end of the race). Somewhat weather and season-dependent, but if it shows up on the day you should just ignore the run.
In Hong Kong they release all post-race vet examinations or scopes (if trainers request it) results: whether they scoped blood, bleeding attacks, lame the next day. Over time people have learned tha generally speaking mucus is one of those that can be dismissed.
According to sectionals: her Ascot run was brilliant, good enough that she might have threatened the front two. Only looked moderate on paper because of the very slow pace,
Race 8 – 4:23 PM
Secretariat S. (Grade I)Purse $500,000. For Three-Year-Olds. One And One Fourth Miles. (Turf)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Golden Jason (KY) 3/C L J E Felix 119 G Dorochenko
2 Visiyani (FR) 3/C C Lemaire 119 A De Royer-Dupre
3 Rydilluc (KY) 3/C L E S Prado 123 G C Contessa
4 First Cornerstone (IRE) 3/C L1 C Hayes 119 A Oliver
5 Admiral Kitten (KY) 3/C L R Napravnik 119 M J Maker
6 Bethel (KY) 3/C L F Geroux 119 G Dorochenko
7 Yeager (NY) 3/C L1 R L Moore 119 J Noseda
8 Balthazar (KY) 3/C L R Albarado 119 D L Romans
9 Jack Milton (KY) 3/C L J Rosario 121 T A Pletcher
10 Stormy Len (KY) 3/C L A O Solis 119 D G Donk
11 Amen Kitten (IL) 3/G L E T Baird 119 W A Ward
12 Draw Two (KY) 3/C L G L Stevens 119 M Nihei
13 Tattenham (KY) 3/C L K J Desormeaux 119 W I MottRace 10 – 5:44 PM
Arlington Million S. (Grade I)Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. One And One Fourth Miles. (Turf)
PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Real Solution (PA) 4/C L A Garcia 126 C C Brown
2 Finnegans Wake (KY) 4/C L R Albarado 126 D L Romans
3 Hunter’s Light (IRE) 5/H L1 R L Moore 126 S bin Suroor
4 Nates Mineshaft (KY) 6/R L E T Baird 126 A P Smith
5 Temeraine (KY) 4/G L E Castro 126 T F Proctor
6 Side Glance (GB) 6/G L1 J P Spencer 126 A Balding
7 Indy Point (ARG) 4/C L G L Stevens 126 R E Mandella
8 Mull of Killough (IRE) 7/G J P O’Brien 126 J Chapple-Hyam
9 Guest of Honour (IRE) 4/C L1 M Harley 126 M Botti
10 The Apache (SAF) 6/H C Soumillon 126 M F de Kock
11 Little Mike (FL) 6/G L J Rosario 126 D L Romans
12 Rahystrada (KY) 9/G L R Napravnik 126 B G Hughes
13 Grandeur (IRE) 4/G W T Buick 126 J NosedaMoonlight Cloud’s record is pretty impeccable. She’s a little horse who can find trouble. This fact explains all of her bad runs since she matured into a good horse: Ascot behind Deacon Blues, behind Excelebration in last year’s race (would have won), and the Breeders’ Cup.
But all we have to go on re: mile form is her uninspiring win over Farhh. I think 6 furlongs is a bit short of her best (can be left flat-footed, Restiadargent matched her in the Black Caviar race) so I’m leaning towards a mile being alright for her now that she has done it a few times.
Dawn Approach is being treated as the most reliable horse with no chinks in his armor. But I’m leaning towards Intello being a bit more brilliant than DA, and MC getting the mile and proving just about as good as DA. Intello was unimpressive last start but could have been unfit or green down the straight. But the burst of speed he showed in the Guineas & PrixduJC gives me confidence in his ability.
Can’t have him over 10f, especially with several top class ones in opposition. I’d rate his winning chances twice that or even more, though 3rd might be up for grabs if others don’t show up.
Red Cadeaux ran great in Dubai over that distance but track was incredibly testing that night & World Cup was very fast-run to boot. So that race was a great stamina test: every horse except RC and AKingdom finished their last two furlongs in over 25 seconds. Red Cadeaux last 4 furlongs in 24.7-24.1, Animal Kingdom 24.9-24.5.
The track was so deep that oblivious jockeys in earlier races were going off too fast early and staggering home in horrifying sectionals, the winner in Godolphin Mile finished last 2f in 26.5s, second horse barely broke 27s at 26.98s
That was also why AKingdom’s performance was so good. AK did work from a wide draw, set a hot pace on a testing track and sustained it.
Dubai WCs usually not great form races because half or more of the runners don’t handle surface, the Tapeta plays inconsistently with huge on-speed biases sometimes, and they usually turn into conservative absolute crawls of races. But this year’s WC was an exception.
That was a completely different performance than his last race, the Jacques le Marois when he had to be shoved along a long way out. He was first-up for 2 months for that race in France which might explain that. The early pace was slow both times, but Excelebration just travelled far better than he did then and bounced back to his best (in good style too).
Monster run by Cirrus Des Aigles. He really does handle these conditions superbly and I suspect under unraceable conditions he might have actually prevailed. Frankel couldn’t explode like he usually does on the ground but didn’t need to to win.
We know that Cirrus is no superstar. He beat So You Think well in this race last year but SYT may have very well ran a bit below form and you can argue that through Snow Fairy. Snow Fairy was held up and never had a proper shot at Cirrus in the race, she would’ve gotten close and may even have won. Cirrus had all favors when scraping in from St Nicholas Abbey in Dubai, he was outsprinted by Golden Lilac, outsprinted in Hong Kong, Sarafina made him look silly in a sit-sprint, Byword received 4 pounds and beat him last year. Rajsaman essentially matched him in last year’s Prix D’Ispahan and the capable but mercurial Planteur did the same in this year’s edition.
Cirrus needs to race himself into form so he’s a length or two below his best in some races. But on normal ground he’s just a good very durable top class horse with plenty of competitors who can match him. In particular he’s very beatable in very slow-run fast ground races. But he seems especially hard-to-beat on heavy ground which is why he’s interesting for this
Restiadargent is extremely inconsistent but if she reproduces her Ascot run she’ll blow these away. Good price
The Goldikova-Excelebration comparison in terms of pure ability has some merit. Excelebration’s record without Frankel is stunning but beating Cityscape, Side Glance, Rio de la Plata, and Dubawi Gold by 2-3 lengths isn’t strong a level of form (Immortal Verse has shown herself to be either very inconsistent or not good so should probably be ignored for Dubawi Gold).
As for Goldikova, Paco Boy obviously got close to her a few times. The horses she beat aren’t extraordinary. But perhaps she was feeling her age towards the end of her career, and she also stretched out to 9 furlongs to beat Byword and Cirrus Des Aigles (whose form is tricky to rate).
I doubt the likes of Makfi and Rip Van Winkle were better than Excelebration but I’m not sure. Makfi’s 2 good runs were beating Dick Turpin (Canford Cliffs was immature/unsettled at the time) and Goldikova on ground that didn’t suit her. Rip’s form is tricky to read. He was purely a fast ground horse which explains his QEII and Irish Champion losses, and I think he was over-the-top when unimpressively beating Zacinto by 1.5 lengths.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra … t7DaysNews
Andre Fabre calls Frankel "the best there’s been".
Excelebration is a good miler but the biggest notch on Frankel’s belt over a mile is Canford Cliffs. Canford hung badly late in the Sussex S. where they met, and maybe would’ve been able to stick on within 2 or 3 lengths if he was right (but note the race was a sit-sprint which compresses margins), but Canford mowed down Goldikova in stunning fashion and was almost certainly better than that mare ever was.
I doubted him up until the Sussex, since the guineas form was average and he looked beatable at Ascot, but it’s evident from his subsequent performances that Cecil was right when he said Frankel was just idling when seeming to tire in the St. James Palace Stakes.Cirrus Des Aigles obviously loves the wet in the way few horses do, but it would need to be quite bottomless for him to win I think. But this is a proper race, Ridasiyna clocked great time on Arc day in the bog so I think she’ll run much better than most think she will
I wouldn’t blame the pilot personally – how on earth could he have known the horse would have done that?
In future, now he knows, I’m sure he’ll come later – but look at horses such as Geordieland, they do as they like no matter how you time it.
The horse is famously a major headcase, hence the trainer saying before the race that his mind is the biggest obstacle to him winning. Hitting the front too early was what I feared and it happened but I don’t blame Christophe too much. He couldn’t have anticipated that no horse would issue a serious challenge but that’s what happened and Orfevre was left in front. Christophe was probably shocked the horse picked them up that quickly too
If he always ran to the wire he would’ve won most races in Japan by 5 or more. I have no doubt he simply pulled up after hitting the front even though the winner was the only one to significantly cut into his margin (I think the others were average or didn’t run to form)
Soumillon reportedly told Equidia Orfevre’s the best he’s ever ridden. I really hope he takes on Frankel because I think he’ll get closer than anything else in the world
He pulls up halfway through the race in this race from Japan, then amazingly gets going again for 2nd. He’s always been a difficult horse and that was the biggest risk to betting him (even the draw didn’t worry me)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj2F9CHWYSY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T-RD0k3X30Ground is a risk you are taking with Orfevre. Times suggest the ground was pretty fast for the Prix Foy, and all but one of his Japan races are on firm ground. He did win on the Japanese track rating of soft, but it looks like good to soft or something similar to me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzYHGBggD3kI see an article at the SL site has an interview with Ichiro Tsuji, an editor for the Thoroughbred Pedigree Centre, in which he rates Orfevre behind Deep Impact and sees Snow Fairy as his biggest rival in the Arc. He also believes he could possibly beat Frankel at 10f and beyond, a rather lofty claim.
Deep Impact will always be Japan’s most popular horse or close to it. Interesting that he puts Deep Impact’s Arc loss down to no prep run. His nominating Snow Fairy as the biggest danger, and then Saonois but not Danedream is baffling
Frankel’s the most dominant horse in the world right now and nobody really comes close, Black Caviar second, but I think Orfevre isn’t far away in third if we focus purely on ability, forgiving his mental problemsThat’s surely all relative to other Japanese horses. Japanese horses don’t compete around Europe so other than the trial race it is little more than guesswork as to his relative merit. Those on at big prices may have done well but I wouldn’t be overly optimistic judged on Sunday’s race. He had the race set up for him but was relatively hard ridden to beat a tenderly handled Meandre. The close proximity of Joshua Tree does nothing for the form. I did notice that with the exception of the Derby where he beat a horse who hasn’t won a race since all his form (whatever that amounts to) is on quick ground.
You’re right on ground concerns too, another reason I think he’s under the odds. I don’t think the Prix Foy was set up for him at all though, he had to come from last in a dead sprint.
Europeans tend to swerve the Japan Cup in favor of the BC Turf, Melbourne Cup, Dubai, and HK Vase because Japan is reliably top class. Historically they’ve done well on their travels, and in the past 12 months Rulership trotted up in Hong Kong (I’d forgive his earlier Dubai run as he overraced fiercely), and Hiruno D’Amour disappointed in the Arc but beat St Nicholas Abbey and ran Sarafina close in the Prix Foy. Danedream was 3 lengths 6th in the Japan Cup after Arc win but we can forgive for a myriad of reasons (held up due to bad draw, maybe pace not ideal, end of season).
Snow Fairy’s Japanese wins the past two years were in a soft G1, a fillies & mares race the very top females (like last year’s Japan Cup winner Buena Vista) dodge in favor of the Japan Cup.
They’re banking on John Gosden having spoken with a straight tongue when he said Nathaniel would need the race. Plus Snow Fairy despite her winning globetrotting ways has faltered just about every time she has met top notchers like So You Think twice, Cirrus Des Aigles and Midday twice. Her victory over Gosden’s Izzy Top would hardly have him losing any sleep.
She also found last year’s Arc way too much to handle so she’ll have to have improved a lot more than she has so far this season to actually win and in the Arc she was in the best position of the big 3 to have done something about it
Midday’s wins over Snow Fairy were: 1. a 12 furlong race in the middle of SF’s 3yo season, and 2. last year when SF was 2nd up after losing to So You Think 1st up by NINE lengths. SF of course got close to So You Think after those two runs, which tells you just how unfit she was first-up. I think the connections’ contention that she would come on for the Midday defeat run was reasonable. Snow Fairy then beat her in the Champion Stakes. Was Midday was below par by then? In my view collateral form through the likes of So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey (beat Midday in Coronation Cup albeit over 12f) suggests peak fitness Snow Fairy MIGHT be better than peak Midday, despite the losing head-to-head record.
The victory over Izzi Top was first-up off a 280 day break due to injury. And Snow Fairy was quite clearly unlucky in the Champion Stakes behind CdAigles. There is also collateral form through Cirrus Des Aigles using SNA and Sarafina, and Snow Fairy did beat him when winning in Hong Kong over 10f.
With all that said I was on Snow Fairy in the Arc last year. I think the quickly run 12 furlongs really blunted her finish so I can’t be with her at the price.
