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I’d take Lookin At Lucky to beat Zenyatta if they were racing on a typical American track with a short straight. Zenyatta’s win over Switch was narrow even if she wasn’t at her best, and Lookin At Lucky can kick just as fast and more powerfully than that one.
He was very unimpressive in the Preakness but he beat many of the same horses over further in the Haskell, with a ton of authority. But with the long straight Zenyatta will be very hard to beat.
The beauty of owning a horse like Twice Over… you can place him anywhere as the situation dictates. Queally rode a great race and the horse was too good on the day.
Disappointing from Vision D’Etat, not as versatile and caught flat-flooted as one might expect but couldn’t take ground off the winner. Curious that the trainer thought that the ground was too "sticky" for him, I think that must have been a factor. I thought he was entitled to cut into Twice Over’s lead regardless of the pace.
Looking back he only beat two 12f horses last time out on the soft track over 10f. Ignore that weak race, and VDE hasn’t encountered any cut since Zarkava’s Arc. In between, he’s run all of his best races (in the Ganay, Prince Of Wales, HK) on good or good-to-fast.
In fact his only other G1 victory was his head win over Famous Name in the French Derby. That’s surely below his best form. He won that Derby at 14/1 so his performances leading up to the race must not have been too impressive; those races too were on rain-affected tracks.
The warning signs that he’s better without cut were there if cleverly hidden. A good lesson on the importance of ground and subtleties of form, I guess.I can’t see past Vision D’Etat, I think he’s the bet of the meeting. Over 10 to 10.5 furlongs: 8 wins, one 3rd, one 12th. The 12th on Tapeta in Dubai, the 3rd first up last year. Fully tuned and on turf, he’s unbeaten at the distance.
He never wins by much, definitely idles and is quite lazy. This laziness is a worry, but it can be negated by the straight course if he is around the principal chances. At Ascot he slacked off on the turn and ended up last in the straight (from midfield before the turn) despite Peslier’s urgings. But he then powered past Never On Sunday and Tartan Bearer in 300m in a modestly run race. And the Hong Kong race is a real eye-opener for anyone familiar with the runner-up (Presvis not fit for that race).
Twice Over was a close 4th at Ascot and I think he ran near his best. He bombed in the Eclipse 2.5 weeks later (perhaps that’s why) but finished close behind Tartan Bearer there. If you think Twice Over has improved enough to beat VDE, you’d also have to think Byword would beat Tartan Bearer as Vision did, and that Tazeez wouldn’t have finished far from those in last year’s Ascot race (both PoW stakes modestly run). I think Vision is a nailed on favorite with better form and more class. The only criticism you can lay on VDE is that he has never beaten a real star, but he’s beaten very good horses with a bit in hand so that doesn’t worry me.
I think the dangers on the win line are the unexposed horses up in trip. Fuisse looked a better horse last race ridden quiet, and he stayed 10.5f decently enough last year as a 3yo when 2nd in the French Derby. I think Poet’s Voice needs to improve for the distance to beat VDE. Scraping by Rip with the ground in his favor isn’t enough to win this for mine.
Vision by under a length.
Sacred Kingdom failing at Ascot is up there.
The best sprinter in the world by miles and Hong Kong’s best ever, but everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. Ground was classified as good but would have been yielding or good-to-yielding in HK (Sacred Kingdom had only raced on good surfaces), uncharacteristically got very worked up before the race, missed the start, got squeezed up, put up on the speed when the principals came from basically dead last (Art Connoisseur, Cannonball), etc.The last 4 honestly wouldn’t have even mattered if the ground was firmer, but on the ground he needed things to go his way and nothing did. Still ran 5th but that hurt.
Rip not getting the good or firm surfaces he needs this year was disappointing too, although it was bound to happen. Last year he never encountered cut in the ground. He would have had quite a decent season this year if the weather went his way, Juddmonte International and QEII wins plus a 2nd to Canford Cliffs, and I think the Irish Champion would have been very different. Don’t know if he could have won, but he was barely grinding past Twice Over when in the International he blew past that one like he was standing still
EDIT:
I’m with Aidan O’Brien on RVW’s distances. He said Rip’s a miler who gets 10f on good ground, and I just can’t imagine that the man and Murtagh are so far off that RVW is best over 12f. Rip ran on well in the Derby but it was run at an absolute crawl.
He looked like he might’ve been looking for further in the Juddmonte, but I think that’s just his racing pattern when ridden from off the pace. In all of his hold-up races except for perhaps the Eclipse (but like the Derby, International, Guineas) I’m sure you’ve noticed he takes a lot of urging and time before he actually gets going. I’m sure this is why they ride him forward and kick early when running over distances they think he’s best at and know he’ll get.Stacelita going for the HK Cup instead as expected, she’s more of a 10f horse.
I also don’t know if Sarafina is going, but if she is I don’t see how you can be confident Midday will do her. Sarafina wasn’t fully tuned when Midday beat her, the ground was very soft (I think the trainer suggested that he may be better on good), and she was ridden much more quietly than usual that day because they weren’t sure she’d stay and of course the Arc was 3 weeks away.
Lookin At Lucky won last start despite the slop, not because of it… I take American trainer/jockey comments more lightly but they weren’t sure about it pre-race and didn’t think it aided his cause post. I really don’t see how Lookin At Lucky isn’t a good chance of making it to post.
I can’t believe he had that string of bad luck earlier this season because he has a standard racing style and decent speed, but that’s what big fields and a run of bad luck can do.
If you watch the longer video of the Kentucky Derby he got absolutely smashed at the start. The Preakness was unimpressive for sure, but he must have improved on the run and the step up in distance in the Haskell. Last race was good, shows he handles rain-affected going.He might not be a wonder horse but he’s a real star. The long homestraight is a worry but he doesn’t take long to get going and has a very powerful kick. He’s definitely a bigger threat to Zenyatta than anything that showed up last year (since Rip was over the top) in my opinion. Cracking race.
Goldikova hasn’t run the most brilliant races of her life this year, but she should at least be a point above Paco Boy and closer to Rip. Her most impressive win was probably vs. Music Show race and you can’t give her a huge rating on that form. Maybe they should rate her higher on the Queen Anne. Zenyatta hadn’t beaten much until last start and she rarely overexerts herself, just beats the competition like STS.
Eskenderaya should be way up there because he destroyed Jackson Bend or whatever it is pre-Derby, and that horse went close in a classic. He really was a star but never ran in a top race. Lookin At Lucky is a bit low.
I think Lope De Vega should be ahead of the more consistent Dick Turpin. Lope clearly held him in the French Guineas and romped home in their Derby. His bad form since is sadly predictable because even before the Derby you could see how nervous and agitated of a horse he is. That fully came out in his next races.
Sarafina 7 points behind Workforce is a joke but these lists don’t account for trouble in running, so Behkabad is low as well, the Niel and Grand Prix De Paris should carry more weight. But these lists are what they are.
If Vision D’Etat runs he’s the one to beat. He handled good to fast ground extremely well in the Hong Kong Cup. I think he’s definitely one of the best 10f horses in the world and should beat Twice Over comfortably if right. At first I wasn’t blown away by his wins in Europe, but I know the HK Cup runner-up quite well and he blew him away. His record over 10f and 10.5f is impeccable with the only losses coming when first-up or on the Tapeta I believe.
Peslier describes Vision D’Etat as a bit of a lazy sort and says when he runs well he needs some urging midway through the race, and I think he definitely idles in front too instead of pulling away. The unexposed St Nicholas Abbey and smart Sarafina are the dangers for me. Don’t know enough about Gitano on turf.
To blow my own horn, I’ve also mentioned that on the general Horse Racing board.
And his win on Super Saver was reckless too. He had the race wrapped up well before the wire but was still lashing the horse as if he was in a competitive finish. Why he chose to, in between smacks down the back, give Super Saver a hard crack down the shoulder I will never know.
I also always found it strange that Ryan Moore fully extended Workforce in the Derby. I mean, you’ll get the rating but if its been a tough race…
Even the Australians, with their extravagant windmill whip action have the sense to give their mounts an easy time if the race is wrapped up.It seems to have perhaps really hurt Super Saver (who it has to be said didn’t look anything special, only clearing out by 2L on his ground with the run of the race). In the end all Moore did was give Workforce a real race, but if its been a tough race then why take the risk?
For what it’s worth, STS broke the track record in the Juddmonte International by 0.8s, so Mastercraftsman ran a very smart time too. No stats on how many races were run C&D though. I think he stayed the trip alright in that race, STS only collared him late after pulling out. He folded easier in Ireland but wasn’t beaten far by Fame & Glory on softer ground. I think 10f tests his stamina in that he wouldn’t be able to run big races consistently at the distance, but fully tuned and with fast ground he seemed to stay in the International.
I think the ratings represent a pretty steady level of form taking all things into account. Idled in the Derby since he was out in front early and never challenged, got a challenge in the Eclipse, looked a bit lazy and had to pull off heels to challenge late in the International, had Fame to chase in the Irish Champion with a clear run and pushed out by Kinane, and pulled and got a less-than-ideal run in the Arc.
Aidan O’Brien called Rip a miler who gets 10f on good ground. I think he definitely stayed in both the Eclipse and this year’s International. Remember, STS broke the course record for the Eclipse by around 1.2 seconds, so Rip has smashed the previous record as well. Nick Mordin claims that 304 races had been run at the course and distance in the previous 13 years so sample size is not an issue. And of course Rip hit the line very hard in this year’s International.
Vision D’Etat is one of the best horses in training but his record and trainer say that he’s clearly best over 10f. Both he and Stacelita didn’t seem to get the trip, though they ran respectable races. I agree that the level of competition was highest in the Arc, and that STS overcame a lot of adversity that day, but because of that adversity he did not win by enough to merit a big rating. Form figures don’t tell us how how hard he pulled, how he had to come off heels and shift out, they describe the number of lengths he beat other horses…
I always thought Fame was over-the-top by the time the Arc came around, but I’ve also always been convinced he couldn’t win an Arc even at 100%. Assessing his Arc run is a bit tricky, him getting impeded this year doesn’t make it any easier.
Gerald Mosse surprisingly thought that the interference didn’t bother his mount so badly. I’m not sure why to be honest, it let her catch her breath for a final sprint, but she went from being on Behkabad’s back to having to pull wide and looked at least 4L off that horse in the stretch? But would have been tough for Sarafina to challenge the first 2 on Mosse’s comment.
Behkabad had nowhere to go until the 300, and I can’t tell for sure that it halted him but it definitely looked like he got squeezed up at the 200. I think it probably halted him since it looked like he was going to pick up Cavalryman pretty quickly but after the contact he had to slowly grind that horse down. Fame got smashed by Planteur, but with his turn of foot he probably couldn’t have won.
As for the race’s form, it looks solid but nothing spectacular. We know how good Nakayama Festa is through Buena Vista, who he upset narrowly before coming to France. Buena Vista was terribly unlucky to lose to Da Re Mi and I think with a clear run should have beat that horse by at least a length (maybe more) in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Nakayama Festa is around Buena Vista’s (one of the best 3 12f horses in Japan) level. Unlikely that Nakayama Festa improved bundles on the softish ground based on her form in Japan.
Da Re Mi probably ran near her best in last year’s Arc (beat Stacelita again, 1L behind Conduit who beat her by 3L when she got squeezed up in the BC Turf off a faster pace) and the Sheema.I think that’s a pretty solid formline but some of you probably have other views on this. I think this year’s race may have been more slowly run which would affect the beaten margins.
When Midas Touch started tiring through the field, Sarafina got a severe check and almost fell down, might have clipped heels. She lost several lengths there. She was following Behkabad before that, and ended up coming from a long way off.
Workforce was midfield and sneaked through a hole near the rail.
How about that Japanese trainer, he trained El Condor Pasa to go down half a length to Montjeu, and now Nakayama Festa…
The favorite of the race was Green Birdie (he overturned Rocket Man in the Singapore Krisflyer albeit on yielding ground) also from HK, he sat midfield but didn’t get a clear run in the straight to finish 7th.
Fist, I’m just saying that you can’t defend Zenyatta’s easy season by saying Sea The Stars didn’t go to the BC Classic. Asking STS to travel to the US after a tough 3yo campaign (6 G1s in 6 months) to take a chance on a different surface is far different from taking Zenyatta (who will have 6 races this year in over 7 months including the BC, 5 races last year) to run on HER surface just out East. If you can’t see why the comparison is ridiculous then I can’t help you. I didn’t knock Zarkava, she was given a 3yo campaign. I’m knocking Z’s connections for giving the horse a soft 3yo campaign every year.
And I don’t know why you’re knocking STS’s form in this thread (I know you don’t think much of the horse but why knock him every chance you can in unrelated threads?), this is purely about the races horses run in. Even if you believe STS didn’t beat much at least he ran in the very best races and took on all comers.
Other great horses are a good deal more adventurous than Zenyatta. Look at Goldikova or any European horse, or Curlin. The trainer looks out for the owners but he could be doing bigger things for Z’s reputation and racing in general if he gave her better races to run in. He takes care of the horse but a trip out East is perfectly feasible. Surely she can have more than one competitive race a year like all the other great ones.
Fame had an ambitious campaign last year, Zenyatta has never had an ambitious campaign. And nowhere did I say that she is not a great horse…she clearly is, I just say her connections should have her take on good ones more than once a year.
