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Fantastic. Switch showed a very sharp turn-of-foot to kick like that, but Zenyatta was too good.
I’m wondering: does Zenyatta run as well on dirt as she does synthetics? And how does the Churchill Downs straight compare to that of Santa Anita’s?If it’s shorter, which I don’t think it is, that would be a serious blow to Zenyatta’s chances.
I think Lookin At Lucky might beat her if he gets first run because his last 2 wins were seriously impressive (and he might not have enjoyed the mud). He showed good speed in the Preakness and Haskell, and he showed in the Haskell he doesn’t take long to get going.
A longer homestraight makes the BC Classic very interesting indeed.I’ll tell you why people complain about Zenyatta’s races. She only runs ONE competitive race a year.
Facts: She’s faced the males once. She’s never left the West coast (until she goes to the BC this year). Last year’s BC aside, she beats up small fields of fillies & mares as a long odds-on favorite.
Why are they so conservative? She’s undoubtedly great, so let her prove it more than once a year! She handles different tracks, synthetics and dirt. Bosranic mentioned that they’re just sticking to a tried-and-true formula. But is the trainer just not good enough to turn her out near 100% more than once a year? Or not confident enough that he can turn her out near 100% on the East coast? They certainly think she’s good enough to beat the best, so is she or her trainer not good enough to do it more than once a year? It’s a bit of a disgrace. Do they not do it because of her unbeaten record?
Kautoflyer claims that she’s not even beating the best F&M in the USA this year. Why not? Go East! It’s a longer trip, so give her a good prep so she can show her best.
Yes, we’ll admire her when she does run, but let us admire her running against the best horses more than once a year! Hell, Rachel beat the males twice in one year, even though one of those wasn’t the strongest race. At least give us that. They’re basically doing Zarkava’s 3 year old season over fewer distances, year after year with a mature horse.
Fist’s Sea The Stars statement is so ridiculously irrelevant it’s painful. Sea The Stars came off an unusually tough 3 year old campaign where he race-after-race took on the best in his continent (country in analogy to Zenyatta) at 10 and 12f plus the Guineas, and you’re asking him to travel to a far away land and run on a completely different surface. We just want Zenyatta to run more than one race against the best each year, on her surfaces.
Suddenly, big boats who were likely to be outpaced in the stretch on better ground, such as Cavalryman, Timos, and Midas Touch may now be viable chances. I think they’d need quite a big break to beat the two main French hopes though.
Nakayama Festa ran that cracker behind Duncan in the prep race on soft and ran a decent 4th on yielding in Japan when not in the market (and coming off a poor run) a year and a half back, the ones who beat him home were all on the speed.
I always thought F&G needed some cut to win the Arc because of his lack of speed, so its intriguing that Aidan O’Brien doesn’t feel too happy about the rain.
Maybe this will suit Youmzain very well since he stays all day, though he was beaten several times on Soft in the 2 races before last year’s Arc by the likes of Getaway, Spanish Moon, Alpine Rose and Eastern Anthem…I have never had much respect for Calvin Borel. The attention he’s been getting for "riding the rail" just makes you shake your head, doesn’t it… don’t how he lost the Belmont by going for home a ridiculous 700m out 4-5 wide on Mine That Bird.
And his win on Super Saver was reckless too. He had the race wrapped up well before the wire but was still lashing the horse as if he was in a competitive finish. Why he chose to, in between smacks down the back, give Super Saver a hard crack down the shoulder I will never know.
I also always found it strange that Ryan Moore fully extended Workforce in the Derby. I mean, you’ll get the rating but if its been a tough race…
Even the Australians, with their extravagant windmill whip action have the sense to give their mounts an easy time if the race is wrapped up.Thanks Zarkava, I certainly follow Nick Mordin and he talks a lot of sense at times. For example, the Canford Cliffs not staying a mile idea is ridiculous in hindsight; he would have flogged Dick Turpin if he didn’t hang in the race before the Guineas.
If his analysis of the times of the Arc trials is indeed accurate (that Behk reached the ~300m mark 0.8s faster than Midday and still finished 0.8s quicker), then Behkabad and Planteur must be something special indeed. I don’t know if there was rain or some factor to account for that. The numbers seem a bit much, but I’m prepared to think that the Frenchies are very good. Through Jan Vermeer, I can see them beating Midas Touch comfortably.
One thing that makes me hesitant to use the "if Planteur weren’t there" hypothetical is the fact that if Sea The Stars weren’t around Fame and Glory would have looked unbeatable last year. Maybe F&G really is that smart as he was probably on the downward curve last year in the Arc. I just can’t see him winning with his lack of acceleration. He’ll need it all to fall into place and kick early, and I still can’t see Behk or Planteur not running him down if they get a half decent draw.
He hated everything about Hong Kong, the fast ground, the noise, etc. and got no run in Dubai (like Presvis).
Absolutely no way Lemaire jumps off Behkabad.
Just to add more to the puzzle that is this year’s Arc, think about what the market would be like if Planteur didn’t exist. Behk would have finished an unlucky 3rd in the French Derby over 2100m, beat Jan Vermeer by 4L, and won the Prix Niel by 5L, and be a very hot favorite for the Arc. I’d be wary of writing off the two French horses as just 2 very good horses instead of 2 potential superstars.
I had a look at the Guineas again and Makfi beat Canford Cliffs with a bit of authority. I know CC had excuses and he’s better than that, but I would have liked to see CC gain ground on Makfi (and thus conclude he has a bigger engine) before I could state the Hannon horse is the one to beat. Makfi did beat Dick Turpin by more than Canford did for what its worth (both in slow run races), and DT was a bit wide at Ascot as well.
But it’s hard to bet against Canford isn’t it, he just looks and races like a perfect miler. I’m looking forward to this one. I don’t think Rip was fully tuned in the Sussex, but hard to see him winning although maybe he can run second if he pinches a good break.
Reading form also involves reading races and understanding whether or not horses ran to form. I believe many of the principals did not run to form in the Derby, through At First Sight’s second (which he has never come close to matching), jockey comments (Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch didn’t handle Epsom, Jan Vermeer lost 2 shoes, etc.), and my eye (Rewilding had some trouble in running and took an age to get going).
But even with all of these question marks, there’s no doubt that Workforce is very capable. He still ran very well in the Derby even if his opposition didn’t. As someone who has backed Behk and Planteur to win for a while, I believe that WF will be a scary proposition and perhaps the only danger to the 2 French horses. I also listen to and accept excuses made by connections if my eye agrees with them (I often take them for their word), so I might give WF more respect than others. I also don’t follow trends as others do although I recognize their value and accuracy; I’ve always thought in terms of horseflesh and performance.
Times aren’t useless and can be useful if done correctly. I don’t have time to take times of UK races but I read analysis. From what I’ve read, WF’s Derby time rated only a solid group 1 time on the day, nothing mindshattering even if he did break the course record. Maybe the fact that Rewilding was taking a bit of ground off him when he eventually got going supports that.
I’d be more confident in Behk but my form analysis is a bit cloudy. If I knew that Jan Vermeer ran to his best against Behk I’d be supremely confident, but I always suspected he turned in a poor run. But comparing the Prix Niel to the other prep races that day makes him look very good indeed (kicked off a significantly faster pace and came home significantly faster than Midday and co.).
TAPK mentioned that Workforce is likely to go well with cut on the ground (another reason to be scared of him), but just so you know the two Frenchies also handle any ground.
Can’t say it’s the best run but it was an astute ride in a big race.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTQh8AtzTN4
Dettori on Ramonti (who pulled his head off) with a very smart ride to keep Viva Pataca and Mick Kinane in a pocket and get first run to win the 2007 HK Cup.
Let’s do this again.
Lost from last year
Sea The Stars
Cavalryman
Conduit
Da Re Mi
Stacelita
Vision D’Etat (doesn’t stay 2400m even though we didn’t definitively know that last year)Gained this year
Behkabad
Planteur
Nakayama Festa (through Buena Vista in Dubai this horse would give Da Re Mi a serious race)
Victoire Pisa (Japan Guineas [10f] winner, Derby 3rd)
Byword
Plumania
Sarafina
Daryakana
[perhaps Cape Blanco and Workforce]Da Re Mi is a good racehorse but she was never quite good enough to win the Arc. The two French stars for STS & Cavalryman, Nakayama Festa for Da Re Mi, Sarafina over Stacelita. The second Japanese horse Victoire Pisa, Byword, Daryakana & Plumania for Conduit. And if Cape Blanco or Workforce make it?
It seems weaker because of the weaker British/Irish team and the downer of having Da Re Mi, Sarafina, Harbinger, and maybe Workforce miss it. But the French have a much stronger team and the Japanese horses should be class animals. The level of competition is actually similar to that of last year’s.
I think Behkabad and Planteur might be superstar material the way they shot away from Jan Vermeer and Goldwaki.
But I actually don’t think the class is far off last year’s edition at all, because the French look a lot more threatening than they did last year.Lose STS, Conduit, perhaps Cavalryman but gain 2 smart 3yo’s who might be very good indeed. Lose Da Re Mi and Conduit but gain two Japanese runners. One of these ran third in the Japan Derby and the other, Nakayama Festa, just beat Buena Vista over 11f in Japan. Remember Buena Vista, one of Japan’s top horses, ran an unlucky second to Da Re Mi in Dubai and would have won if she didn’t get a very bad check in the straight.
Possible runners like Byword, Workforce, and Cape Blanco, as well as probable French runners like Plumania and Sarafina (an improvement over Stacelita) make this a decent Arc. You could argue that there’s no superstar though, but I don’t think that’s for sure just yet.I bet your one of those who never thought Raven’s Pass would beat Henry….. If Planteur is ridden like that in the Arc I’d agree with you but he’s a turn of foot horse who will be held up. Today’s race was just a nice workout.
The only time Planteur beat Behkabad home was in the French Derby and Planteur was handy enough there. Both of these horses are versatile, Behkabad won earlier in the year leading all the way and showed a great burst of speed held up in the French Derby.
Planteur is a smart horse but everything we have seen suggests that Behkabad is the superior animal. Even in the 2100m Prix du Jockey Club Behkabad finished faster than everything, and this is after going back from a poor draw, swinging very wide in the straight (remember, 22 horse field) and receiving a costly bump. Of course Behk can still lose to Planteur, thats racing, but Behk looks a better horse.
As for people taking the Derby form literally to prove that Workforce is better than Behk… would this mean that At First Sight would have run a nice 3rd to Behk and Planteur in the Grand Prix de Paris? I could also show that At First Sight should have beaten Jan Vermeer in the Irish Derby and perhaps even Cape Blanco as well, since he beat them by more at Epsom than Cape Blanco did at the Curragh.
Derby form is suspect due to many of the chances not handling the track and other excuses. Surely, At First Sight’s performance gives those excuses grounds for legitimacy. Workforce is still unexposed and the Derby run was still smart, and as such is still a danger to win the Arc, but it’s silly to center your logic around the Derby form.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTcTiYuY9AQ
She was stretched to her limit there, although it was still a great performance. Speaking of terrible rides and jockeys….
Cheers, Wit.
Anyone know how much Rebel Soldier left Noseda’s for? Will be in interesting to see how much he can earn racing towards the top end in Hong Kong.
The local Hong Kong newspapers reported a figure of around $16 million HKD, or $2 million USD. I think this is around the same amount paid for Irian, last year’s German guineas winner (third to Lord Shanakill in the G1 Prix Jean Prat). I’ve heard rumblings about the horse perhaps not actually coming to Hong Kong but I can’t confirm those.
I am not sure about prices for the other HK horses.
I firmly believe that Workforce was hugely flattered by his Derby win by the other runners (bar At First Sight) not handling the track, but he has to be one of the dangers to Behkabad and the other Frenchies because he is still unexposed/his form is a bit murky. And even though the others did not run to their best the Derby run still puts him up as a serious horse. And who knows, he may very well improve on slower ground given his action.
Cape Blanco has had a long season but even before taking that into account I think he does his best racing over 10 furlongs. If he were a 12 furlong horse I think he should have won more easily at the Curragh and wouldn’t have been under pressure from before 3 out in the KG.
I don’t think Fame & Glory can win it unless the going is very soft. Most Arcs are won by horses with a sharp turn of foot and he lacks that, and looks like he would be susceptible to a horse with that quality. He’ll need cut in the ground and the race perfectly run to suit to win in my opinion, but he’s still a decent place chance.
Behkabad laughed at Planteur, quickened away from him, and when Planteur challenged Behkabad quickened again, sending planteur all over the track in surprise. Was actually eased before the line too
Behkabad didn’t quicken once in that race. He held on grimly as a superior horse, poorly ridden, used up too much energy trying to get on terms.
I have no idea how you can support this statement. Planteur was quite a bit behind Behkabad on the turn but with about 450m had already cruised up on the bridle to be close enough if good enough. He was shaken up at the 450m and had every chance from there.
As for Behkabad not quickening, our eyes, and the distances between him and both Jan Vermeer and the fast finishing Goldwaki suggest otherwise.
