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Deep Impact looked like Frankel in Japan – I’d think Danedream could end up blinding value after hacking up in probably a better Ar last year.
I think Danedream’s value too but you’re overstating Deep Impact’s dominance. Japanese fans followed him with particular fervor because he broke a 2 decade Triple Crown dry spell but Deep Impact always had a clear vulnerability regarding his ability.
He was beaten fair-and-square before the Arc by a horse who simply outsprinted him in a steadily-run race. Deep Impact was classy but his stamina stood out more than his speed (he holds the 2 mile world record after all). When he won he usually had pacemakers ensuring a good gallop. His Arc price was smashed by the army of rabid Japanese fans on course, but no, he was no Frankel and level-headed form readers (along with a look at his form) would tell you as much.
Orfevre has no such holes in his ability, he’s won cozily every time (he tends to pull up in front so don’t be fooled by the winning margins), slow-run or quick-run, good luck or (mostly) bad luck. His mental state is the query. He’s been beaten twice recently, once pulling himself up in the middle of a race and another time simply refusing to go. So he’s a risk, but has shown more versatility and speed than Deep Impact, along with the required stamina.
I agree JO’B had no opportunity to take up closer after he took the tug at the start. I’m not really arguing this particular case, but the idea that fast horses have to be deliberately held up. In my view usually any position with cover is fine.
You’re right that there are special cases, ie. when you’re worried about a horse overracing, which was probably the thinking here. In that case the priority is getting the horse to settle, but I see no sense in holding up the horse farther than you need to. If you can settle the horse behind one or two horses I think it would be fine (obviously I’m not talking about the Leger).As I’ve written in my updated previous post I agree that Camelot didn’t close off the way he’s capable of (for whatever reason). He should be showing a stronger burst of speed than Encke but looked quite dour when making up the ground
On an aside: Camelot is a Guineas winner but he won it in the manner of a 10f horse getting everything (pace and ground) to suit and just scramble in over a bunch of not-so-great milers. Nobody would call him a good miler, whereas many including myself would make the case that Sea The Stars was strong at the distance.
Orfevre now clear favourite ahead of a 5 length Arc winner. Crazy.
I think most people who seriously analyze both Japanese and European form would call Orfevre the better horse. He’s the most talented horse Japan has produced in a long time.
But I agree on the prices. Orfevre is a very quirky horse who has simply refused to race in Japan on more than one occasion, and the risk is probably multiplied by the fact that he’s abroad, while Danedream ticks all the boxes.
He didn’t look visually impressive but they absolutely crawled (running the first 7f 10 seconds slower than the 2011 Prix Foy), then sprinted from 1000m out running that 5 furlongs in 57.92 (so Orfevre obviously ran it quite a bit quicker).
On-screen splits for Foy: 96.34 sec to 1000m; 22.49 sec 1000m to 600m; 11.59 sec 600m to 400m; 11.39 sec 400m to 200m; and 12.45 sec to lineWe won’t know exactly how good that sprint is until the card is run and sectionals analyzed, but I have no doubt it was a great slow-pace performance. Meandre has a dizzying sprint and he couldn’t go with the winner. Ground is officially Good-to-soft and Meandre prefers fast ground, but visually and going by the times, the ground’s fast enough
I think Soumillon doesn’t quite realize how slow they went and what a task Orfevre was set. I don’t think he needs to improve much if any on that to win the Arc.
You’re wrong Hammy.
Why would a horse held up in both the 2000 Guineas and Derby be ridden nearer the pace at 1m6f+? A horse with "speed" enough to win a Guineas should be held up to make use of that speed at the end of the race.
If that were true Snow Fairy would be held up in every race, but when she has a chance to get a good position they do it (think the Champion Stakes last year, the Irish Champion Stakes, etc.). Same with a horse like Golden Lilac, a speedball and very quick miler who is put pretty close to the speed in her 9f and 10.5f races. Holding up a horse with good speed leaves him hostage to the pace and you can end up putting him in an impossible position (I’m not necessarily saying that’s what happened with Camelot). Also, the further back you are, the higher chance you have of getting strung up in traffic (slower pace also = more traffic problems).
I’m not sure how relevant this is to this case though. Looked to me like JO’B took a tug at the start to relax the horse and after that he was stuck in the back. I think he had his chance and he was more staying on than flying at the end, but under different circumstances he could’ve won (one position closer, nice suck run, etc.).
I don’t think he was clearly the best horse at the distance based on what we saw… ask yourself: who showed a better turn of acceleration, Encke or Camelot? You can also use the 3rd and 4th horses to make your own conclusions.Moonlight Cloud clearly has superior finishing speed to anything in this field, which is very important at Longchamp. She’s the one to beat. I’d be concerned if the race turns into a crawl as she might pull her chances away, or a quick run race might stretch her stamina, but I think she should win
Where would Dar Re Mi figure? She beat the colts well in the Sheema Classic.
Dubai Sheema Classic almost always pace-orientated (so class on-pace horse can win it) and form generally not quite top class. And the Japanese mare Buena Vista was terribly unlucky in that race, she would’ve blown Dar Re Mi away by a few lengths with uninterrupted running despite the slow pace.
Dar Re Mi ran 3.5 lengths 5th behind Sea The Stars in the Arc, Conduit was 2.5 lengths 4th. Conduit then beat her again in the BC Turf, when Dar Re Mi had every chance. So she’s 1 or 2 lengths behind Conduit.
12 furlongs is Dar Re Mi’s best whereas it looks like 10f is probably Snow Fairy’s best, so maybe not comparable? I have little doubt Snow Fairy’s better, but it takes a convoluted explanation.
Dar Re Mi proved superior to Stacelita in the Vermeille and Arc, but Stacelita probably didn’t quite stay 12f; she stuck to 10f the following season. My read is that Stacelita and Dar Re Mi are similar class with different optimum distances (sadly they never met over 10f).
Midday beat Stacelita with ease over 10f, and Midday’s level of form seems clearly superior. Snow Fairy has strong claims to being as good or better than Midday. Midday better class than Stacelita, Snow Fairy better class than Dar Re Mi.It’s surely ground dependent with Nathaniel? As Gosden said recently it’s not that Nathaiel can’t go on faster ground it’s the fact soft ground doesn’t slow him down as much as it does most of the oppostion.
I can’t see him bypassing the Arc unless it’s very fastish ground but he must be thinking if it is he’d be better going for the Champion as he’d be an absolute certainty to pick up 2nd place.
One things for sure, somethings got to give. Camelot wants fast ground, Nathaniel wants it soft, Danedream wants it just on the soft side of good and Snow fairy wants it on the fast side of good.
With the likes of Cirrus Des Aigles (who loves soft ground as well) there he wouldn’t necessarily be a certainty? And Snow Fairy’s entered in that race too
A lot of people don’t rate Camelot’s Guineas win highly but I think it was quite a decent effort and he handled the ground perfectly fine. Danedream’s best run is still the Arc and it was fast that day.The race was disappointing from the point of view that Nathaniel wasn’t primed for the race like he was the Eclipse. Snow Fairy beat him with contempt. But at least we can confirm Nathaniel’s superiority over St Nicholas Abbey (implied through Farhh) over 10f.
I think with a breakneck pace and a primed Nathaniel (and/or maybe softer ground) Snow Fairy might not have gotten there, but I had her as favorite nonetheless.
I don’t think this is an open and shut race, the horses are close enough in class and are so different that the pace of the race might decide things. The slower the pace, the bigger chance Snow Fairy has as she’s shown around the globe a spectacular final drive in sit-sprints. In a crawl she’ll win cozily even if settled in last place. I think it’s an open race if Daddy Long Legs is an effective pacemaker. I’m not confident enough to say that Snow Fairy would win in this circumstance.
Don’t forget Born To Sea. He’s had legitimate excuses and John Oxx thinks highly enough of him to enter him in this. He’s the obvious fourth pick and I think he’s a great price to knock off one (or two) of the top 3.
-Pulled his head off when first-up in the Guineas, forgive.
-Held up too far back in Irish Guineas (weak race though), rattled home best of all. They started experimenting with gear at this point, eventually the hood seemed to settle him best.
-Three wide no cover over the mile at Ascot, stayed on one-paced; textbook example of a horse who wants more ground.
-Chased home Camelot on heavy ground. I don’t read much into this because of the conditions, both horses were either dead-tired at the finish or absolutely hated the ground based on how they ran around in the stretch
-Famous Name beat him by 6 lengths last race, and John Oxx still has him entered here which tells you how false that race must be. Crucially John Oxx said afterwards he probably left the horse short of work due to heavy ground on the grass gallops. The horse was also without the hood and overraced very badly early. Gear will be back on.I agree with Laurie Williamson’s point on Excelebration, but I think Frankel has still done enough to merit his huge reputation.
Excelebration has beaten everything else in sight, but Cityscape got to within a few lengths of him. I can forgive last year’s Prix du Moulin which was run on very soft ground, but I think we know that Excelebration isn’t as good as Canford Cliffs at his best. Canford Cliffs (when he finally settled) likely better than Goldikova ever was, and Excelebration might be around Goldikova’s level, or just a bit behind in my opinion.
I don’t think Germany has had a top international horse for some time, before Danedream – who I absolutely adore. I remember Acatenango from years ago – he won so many races including Grand Prix de Saint Cloud and all those in Germany before Dancing Brave’s Arc, – that fantastic race. I feel he was the best German horse since the 1960’s, do you agree? – until Danedream came along….
I also remember Orofino and he won many of those races too but disappointed in his Arc year when All Along won it…
Star Appeal – forget it – just too much of a shock…
am I missing any others?Shirocco is the best in recent years before Danedream, he was quickly snapped up by Andre Fabre. 4 length 3rd to Pride in Prix Foy then 4 length 4th in Hurricane Run’s Arc, then won the Breeders’ Cup Turf too. He beat Ouija Board in the Coronation Cup the following year, and in that year’s Prix Foy he got revenge and beat Pride and Hurricane Run. But ran last in the actual Arc.
Borgia also went to Andre Fabre after he showed his ability, but he ran 3rd beaten 7 lengths in Peintre Celebre’s Arc, then a neck 2nd to El Condor Pasa in the following year’s Prix Foy (3 horse race though) before failing in Montjeu’s Arc. Snuck away with a HK Vase late.
In the 90s, Silvano ran good races out east and in the USA, won a HK Cup, Singapore Cup, and Arlington Million plus a few placings. Epalo did something similar but only won one overseas G1.
As for the Arc, get on Orfevre. One of Japan’s most talented horses ever. He’s quirky which has gotten him beaten in extraordinary circumstances, so he’s probably a bigger question mark than the average traveler (travelling around the world maybe only 35-45% of the top class horses reproduce their form). But if he shows his form I think he beats the field (except possibly Danedream). I’ve looked at his sectionals and think he can deal with below-average luck (wide gate, wide trip, overly slow or fast pace, etc.).
Also, roughly half of the horses who travel long distances don’t run to their best, even Europeans: think Dylan Thomas (HK), Rip Van Winkle (USA), Paco Boy (HK), Danedream (Japan Cup), Cirrus Des Aigles (HK and Japan), Sarafina (USA). It’s not inconceivable at all that Aussie raiders run below form in England; we saw it this year with Ortensia and HK’s Joy & Fun at Ascot.
Moonlight Cloud didn’t get a proper crack at Deacon Blues, I suggest you watch that race again; she probably would’ve still lost but she would have gotten much closer. But given the general level of form of European sprinters I wouldn’t bet Deacon Blues matching Black Caviar’s best. Beating Wizz Kid by 2 lengths isn’t much like beating Ortensia by 6.
If you’re confused by Ortensia and Alverta’s form, down under they tend to run horses undercooked or when not in form more than they do up here which accounts for some poor runs. But the fact is both weren’t stars down there and that is the main reason they didn’t win much down there. But their level of form is still enough to hold them in good stead in European sprints.
Don’t be ridiculous…..she lost 15 times in 17 races and was disqualified in one of those of course she has improved and big time at that.
She was beaten an average of 2 to 3 lengths is her races and that’s massive distance to bridge in sprints. She didn’t really come of age until she was six when she won her first Group 1 after 7 failed atempts which is not unusual with mares and hasn’t looked back since.
To say she hasn’t improved is complete and utter nonsense…
You should be thankful when Black Caviar ran below her best over here Deacon Blues was sidelined or her unbeaten record would have been lost. He made Moonlight Cloud look like a selling plater at Ascot he last time we saw him.
We know how good the UK sprinters are relative to the Australasian.
2010 July Cup: 7 year old Australian Alverta (her only Group wins were a G2 and weak G1 both also when 7yo) a length 3rd to Starspangledbanner.
2011 Kings Stand: Australian Star Witness (5 lengths behind Black Caviar) 1/2 length 2nd, Hong Kong’s Sweet Sanette (never won a Group race) only beaten 1/2 length more in 3rd.
2011 Golden Jubilee: Star Witness lost by 2 lengths, struggling late on with the testing track.
2012 Kings Stand: Little Bridge (HK) comfortably beat Sole Power & Bated Breath.
2012 Dubai Al Quoz Sprint: Joy & Fun (HK) 3rd to Sole Power and winner Ortensia after missing breakIn Dubai Sole Power ran 2nd, Joy & Fun unlucky 3rd (might have won had he not missed the break). Little Bridge has roughly similar HK form to Joy & Fun. Little Bridge comfortably saw off Bated Breath and Sole Power in the Kings Stand (Ortensia and Joy & Fun didn’t fire). So Ortensia’s Dubai win was similar in class to the Kings Stand through not only Sole Power but also the HK horses. And she ran to or above the level of horses like Bated Breath and Sole Power.
Ortensia was 2 lengths 4th in the 2009 HK Sprint behind JJ The Jet Plane and Rocket Man, that is again around Joy & Fun’s level. Ortensia is also roughly similar class to the likes of Star Witness and Alverta; horses who sneak a G1 or two down under, but a few lengths shy of a typical Aussie champ and 5 or more behind Black Caviar. Star Witness and Alverta went close in three separate British G1 sprints. The form absolutely lines up.
Did Ortensia inexplicably improve AFTER Dubai and her failed Ascot run? Sole Power and Bated Breath almost definitely ran below form in the Nunthorpe due to the ground. But Ortensia won the Nunthorpe in virtually the same manner she did in Dubai, and the level of form of the Nunthorpe seems similar to the Kings Stand (and thus Dubai) if not slightly worse… it’s not difficult to think that Bated Breath or Sole Power would’ve run 2nd if they had their ground. You’re taking a massive leap of faith and have a lot of explaining to do if you claim Ortensia improved a lot… or at all.
Aidan has been talking about how he thinks SNA might be better at 10f recently. My thoughts:
He doesn’t reel off Snow Fairy/Sarafina-sectionals in very slow-run races; this cost him in Dubai and last year’s King George. A finish that requires a ~23 second final 2 furlongs is probably best for him so the pace of 10f will help in that way.
Does he stay 12f strongly? Most of his 12f races have been run at moderate-to-slow tempos or against G2 horses. He failed in the only top-class fast-pace race he’s contested, last year’s Arc. That suggests he didn’t stay, but then again perhaps it was being ridden on the pace on that day! He travelled comfortably enough so I’m siding with Aidan here, the 12f can stretch him and 10f with pace on is his optimum. I think SNA will handle the trip and probably run 2nd.
The way Frankel wins over a mile he can surely run 9f well enough to beat anything over that distance. But an extra furlong? In a scorching pace?
Cityscape’s best trip is probably 9f, he won a fast-run Dubai Duty Free running away, breaking the Dubai track record. Punted to get just an extra furlong in the Eclipse, he travelled SUPREMELY and like the winner, but completely fell apart in the final furlong. That stamina wall can appear quite suddenly. This is the only way Frankel can get beat but the prices seem spot on enough.His win in the Prix Gany would give him a chance but laid out against Frankel? I’m sure Marco could think of better ways of passing his time. I would imagine the plan with hih is to pick up the stragglers and hopefully run into a place as he does struggle a bit in top class race
To read Planteur’s form you just have to completely dismiss a bunch of his runs, he either fires or he doesn’t. Throw out his 2 Ascot failures and a few others. At his best he’s close to Sarafina (Arc and BC Turf favorite last yr), Cirrus Des Aigles, Behkabad, and Rewilding. Dubai World Cup was a farcical race on strange surface, but his was the best run of the race outside the course-specialist winner so he’s performed outside of France before.
He’s a live place chance. He might hate York like he does Ascot but price is ridiculous.Three things we learned here:-
1.Golden Lilac is not as good as was previously thought
Crazy talk. Elusive Kate confirmed herself to be quite decent here, and on their previous meeting there isn’t much between her and Golden Lilac over a mile. Golden Lilac had the nightmare run and thus pulled her head off this time, clear excuses.
If Golden Lilac isn’t as good as we thought then neither is Elusive Kate, Cirrus Des Aigles, and a long list of other horses.The quality of Excelebration’s win nothing spectacular since he was fully extended. We know how good Cityscape is; he didn’t have the race run to suit and still stuck on for 2nd. Moonlight Cloud found trouble again and stormed home very well but we still don’t know whether or not she’ll stay a strong-run mile.
Golden Lilac is a real speedball who can finish off in scorching time, and I have no doubt that she’s a great horse. With that said Cirrus was at the wrong trip and is rated a bit too highly on top of that (Rajsaman got very close to him in the same race last year) and she’ll need to do a bit more this year.
