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So many mugs in this thread I’m going to have to vacate your scenery, I am too intelligent to be mixing with simpletons.
LAW 10
INFECTION: AVOID THE UNHAPPY AND UNLUCKY
____________________________________________________You can die from someone else’s misery (TAPK)- emotional states are as infectious as diseases. You may feel you’re only helping the drowning man (TAPK) but you are only precipitating your own disaster. The unfortunate often draw misfortune on themselves; they will also draw it on you. Associate with the happy and fortunate instead.
Mr.Wilson
Emotional states infectious? I’m glad I don’t spend time around you then Mr.W or else I’d be a very unstable chappy! Leaving racing one day, love racing the next! Don’t think I’d be able for all that stress.
As for the belief that you are correct in you methods and everyone who doesn’t use times is a numbnuts well that’s an extremely unreasonable assertion to make. I am of the opinion that it probably is possible to make money from times, but is far better to belive and trust in what you see with your eyes
People keep writing off the Derby form as dreadful, yet it really is nothing of the sort.
I’ll accept At First Sight has done little to advertise it,but he showed in that race that he’s an out-and-out stayer, and hasn’t been ridden nearly as agressively in his 2 races since. However, Rewilding won the Voltigeur pulling a bus (didn’t stay in the Leger subsequently), Jan Vermeer has placed in 2 gp1’s, and Midas Touch has run 2nd in the Irish Derby and the St Leger.
While none of the above may be world beaters, they were all thrashed absolutely pointless by Workforce and 2 of them have subsequently finished much closer to the likes of Behkabad and Cape Blanco, so even if you see them as gp2 horses, the Derby winner has shown himself a class and a half above them, something which others equally short in the Arc betting have yet to prove.You’re seriously using Midas Touch’s second in an appalling St Leger as a
positive
for the Derby form? Now that is what I call scraping the bottom of a barrel. Cape Blanco doesn’t even stay 12f and he won the Irish Derby – shows you how good a renewal that was.
Time and time again the history of this race shows the French 3yos given a proper preparation have a better chance than British and Irish classic animals.The Derby form is questionable.
The horse has a tendency to run poor races for no apparent reason.
He’s had no proper prep run but apparently worked well recently (no info re weights carried)
The trainer has never managed to win the race.Workforce should be at double digits for this and it is crazy that he is shorter than Fame and Glory.
Reading form also involves reading races and understanding whether or not horses ran to form. I believe many of the principals did not run to form in the Derby, through At First Sight’s second (which he has never come close to matching), jockey comments (Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch didn’t handle Epsom, Jan Vermeer lost 2 shoes, etc.), and my eye (Rewilding had some trouble in running and took an age to get going).
But even with all of these question marks, there’s no doubt that Workforce is very capable. He still ran very well in the Derby even if his opposition didn’t. As someone who has backed Behk and Planteur to win for a while, I believe that WF will be a scary proposition and perhaps the only danger to the 2 French horses. I also listen to and accept excuses made by connections if my eye agrees with them (I often take them for their word), so I might give WF more respect than others. I also don’t follow trends as others do although I recognize their value and accuracy; I’ve always thought in terms of horseflesh and performance.
Times aren’t useless and can be useful if done correctly. I don’t have time to take times of UK races but I read analysis. From what I’ve read, WF’s Derby time rated only a solid group 1 time on the day, nothing mindshattering even if he did break the course record. Maybe the fact that Rewilding was taking a bit of ground off him when he eventually got going supports that.
I’d be more confident in Behk but my form analysis is a bit cloudy. If I knew that Jan Vermeer ran to his best against Behk I’d be supremely confident, but I always suspected he turned in a poor run. But comparing the Prix Niel to the other prep races that day makes him look very good indeed (kicked off a significantly faster pace and came home significantly faster than Midday and co.).
TAPK mentioned that Workforce is likely to go well with cut on the ground (another reason to be scared of him), but just so you know the two Frenchies also handle any ground.
Mr.Wilson the way to make money in this game is believing what you see imo. Form reading is the way to go (if your able
)Mr.Wilson wrote: "time is the only way of making a living in this sport, only a mad agressive drunk who’se spent their life writing out 10p slips would think different"
Cop yourself on please
To THM : agreed 100% I’ve managed to consistently make racing pay over a long period of years by relying on what I saw, not what the clock is trying to tell me.
To Mr W : the few occasions I’ve bothered looking at the times are usually after a race not before.
If you recall Sebastian Coe was exceptionally good at clocking fast times in races run with a pacemaker setting the rythym to suit World records, but Steve Ovett was by far the better head to head racer of the two, the two factors (time & raceform) although connected are distinctly different although I’ve never really understood why?To All : As far as method of pinpointing winners, try this one…… I have noticed over the last few months that when thehorsesmouth and myself both go for the same horse it usually wins, a "system" I’ll guarantee will produce a better profit than backing the "time" selection.
Reading form also involves reading races and understanding whether or not horses ran to form.
Hey Presto!! Well said that man! There are times you have to cherry pick your form lines to suit your goal.Had i beleived for one minute Evens and Odds had been running to his best form this season i would never have backed him for the Stewards Cup,i saw enough,(well i didn"t see that much actually because it was foggy)in last years Stewards Cup to know if Dandy "Protected" his mark he would be a major player for this years race!Thats what you come to expect from TAPK mind! This year you dont need to be Einstein to see that
Workforce
is an absolute beast of a horse who weighs more now than when he won the Derby,you can be assured his physical improvement will reflect his chances in the Arc,which will be his 5th race in his career but more importantly he has the form to win anyway and thats because his best piece of form just so happens to be the winner of the Derby in course record time on ground and a course that wouldn"t be his 1st choice! We haven"t seen the best of Workforce yet,we will if he gets the Arc go ahead!
To All : As far as method of pinpointing winners, try this one…… I have noticed over the last few months that when thehorsesmouth and myself both go for the same horse it usually wins, a "system" I’ll guarantee will produce a better profit than backing the "time" selection.
Yes
Cheltenham Specialist
and
Thehorsesmouth
are a formidable team,you should start a joint thread in Daily Lays and Plays called "The horse Specialist"! Keep up the good work! Shame you wont get this years Arc winner between you mind!
- Total Posts 17716
Presto your points are valid but theres no sense in making excuses for those who finsihed behind in the Derby. It’s not like they have done anything to misprove the theor they are all next to useless when it comes to Garde 1 races.
You have got to believe that Workforce is head and shoulders above very other 3yo in training to state he has a chance in the Arc.
Fist Sight
has won nothing since finishing 2nd a flash in the pan if ever there was one.
Midas Touch
won a poor Group 2 before running down the field in the St leger. Very odrdinary animal.
Rewilding
Failed to shine in the St Leger after an impresive win at York but that was in Group 3 company. Jury is still out on him but Godolphin aren’t bursting vessels to run him in the Arc.
the only Group 1 winner to come out of the Derby is Buzzward and that was in Germany. Hot Prospect won a handicap and that’s it so far.
By this time last year at least 4 horses had won a Group 12 or 3 race out of Sea the Stars Derby.
This is probably the worst Derby I have ever seen which makes it very easy to say Workforce isn’t as good as he looked. The King George would bare that out if it wasn’t for the fact Ryan Moore was totally convinced he would beat Harbinger who would have been odds on to win this Arc but for sustaining a career ending injury.
To be honest it’s a poor Arc and if Workforce flops the only good thing that will have come out of this flat season is the 2yo division looks way above average.
I’m hoping Workforce is as good as SMS says he is because racing at this time needs a star badly.
Behkbad is nothing special IMO he lacks star quality and IMO will not win the Arc or even come close.
Henry Cecil must be looking at this race and be wondering if he’s done the right thing not running Midday.
I bet Mick Channon is also thinking this could be his year looking at this lot. He’s already stuffed Fame and Glory when it mattered and AOB’s horses look poor in comaprison to previous years.
Roll on the Breeders and Zenyatta when we will seee what a real champion looks like.
Any thoughts/comments on Youmzain’s shortening price over last couple of weeks? 33s available at Lads 4 weeks ago – now generally a 16/1 chance.
Do you reckon punters are seeing Y as value e/w for The Arc with his previous placed history or has this horse a genuine chance of actually winning the race at last?!I think everyone is backing Youmzain because on Arc day at Longchamp for some strange reason he seems to run 12lb or so above himself, which in any Arc puts you bang there!!
Also I need someone to clarify whether or not SILVER POND is going to run in the race, because if he is, he could be the one to spring a suprise?
1000s on Betfair, so no.
Fame and Glory friendless on the exchanges for the past week, trades at 8/1.
1000s on Betfair, so no.
Fame and Glory friendless on the exchanges for the past week, trades at 8/1.
Is it possible that AOB plans to run St Nicholas Abbey?
I see he’s qouted 12s-16s in the AP listsI wouldn’t dare JJM
I’m on him myself
Just think given the lack of depth in this years arc, the horse has excellent form there in the book, the horse should be around 12s, not 20s.
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