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I’d love to get some opinions on which race you think was Sea the Star’s best performance.
The day my freinds and I watched him win the Arc everyone to a man went WOW!!!!!Fantastic!! Brilliant!!! you name it.
He totally destroyed everything aruund him in a matter of strides somethong only the best horses can doa nd imo if he was a 140 horse that is the race that sealed it.
I had no doubt in my mind we had just seen the best of Sea the Stars.
Timeform a few days later announced Sea the Stars had run below form and his best performance was the Eclipse.
He had beaten Conduit 4.5 length in comparison to only 2.5 lengths in the Arc. The fact Conduit’s form was near rubbish in comparison at the shorter trip never came into it.
IMO the real reason they crabbed Sea the Stars in the Arc is that they had got his rating totally wrong to start with or the 132 they had given Zarkava for beating Youmzain was grossly underrated.
Taking nothing away from Sea the Stars I think Timeform were so far out with his rating they came away with this fantasy to save embarrasment.
I maintain Sea the Stars best performance came in the Arc by a mile.
I’d love some opinions from those who understand ratings better than I do because I could never get my head round this one.
Perhaps Timeform didn’t show the video to enough of their non-racing friends. The fools.
Visually i thought the Irish Champion was most impressive.
I’ll leave the ratings to the number crunchers.
It’s a close call.
His Arc win was a tremendous performance – not only visually but in the manner he achieved it. I remember Brough Scott waxing lyrical over it, saying it was the best Arc victory he’d seen since Sea Bird II, and how it eclipsed that of Mill Reef’s and demonstrated, by using speed figures and sectional times how even Dancing Brave would have toiled to get near him. Yes, it was a supreme performance, inspite of the close proxinity of perennial loser, Youmzain.
That said, his Eclipse win was arguably more impressive. Run at break-neck speed all the way, Sea The Stars showed how resilient and brave he was that day, as well as fast. It looked as if Rip Van Winkle and Johnny Murtagh would wear him down with a perfectly delivered challenged – until Mick Kinane asked his horse to quicken again in an attempt to repel the threat of defeat, which he duly did – illustrating the mark of a true champion.
A champion at a mile, a mile and a quarter and at a mile and a half, Sea The Stars may not have been as easy on the eye as Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Dancing Brave et al, but he was every bit as good, if not better.
The fact is; he always found a way to get his head in front, and that, in horse-racing, is ultimately what it’s all about,
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Did your friends think La Boum was one of the best mares they’d since since Triyptch?
Did your friends think La Boum was one of the best mares they’d since since Triyptch?
Some chancer just had to bring La Boum into it
The Arc win was an excellent performance for a number of reasons, chiefly that it came on the back of a tough campaign where he’d maintained an unbeaten record at trips between a mile and a mile and a half. He also did it despite pulling hard for such a long time in the early part of the race. The trouble is however, there are horses like La Boum, Magadan and Tangspeed who just weren’t beaten far enough to suggest that on ratings the Arc was Sea The Star’s best performance. Timeform certainly weren’t crabbing his performance at all in the race as their perspective on the race highlights.
SEA THE STARS lined up for his sixth Group 1 start in as many months with his place among the best horses in Timeform’s experience already assured whatever unfolded here, and that he’d need to match, let alone exceed, the sort of performances he’d already put up at Sandown and Leopardstown was never really likely given that this was not the sort of vintage Arc line-up which the likes of Dancing Brave had had to beat, and besides, Sea The Stars had already defeated the pair the market considered his chief rivals, Fame And Glory (twice) and Conduit; while on bare form, a 2-length beating of Youmzain doesn’t make Sea The Stars’ Arc win anything out of the ordinary, taking the world’s richest turf race and Europe’s top middle-distance event capped a faultless 3-y-o campaign and surely gained him as much, if not more prestige, than if he’d attempted to complete the Triple Crown instead; it was far from plain sailing though, and Sea The Stars deserves extra credit for how he overcame a less-than-ideal run after fighting for his head as Mick Kinane tried to restrain him, settling about halfway down the main field on the inner eventually and still with a bit to do on the home turn, looking in danger of being crowded out as Getaway made to come up his inner and then having to steer round the weakening pacemakers before quickening between the leaders to assert 1f out, well on top inside the last; once again, until getting warm at the start, Sea The Stars was typically unflappable (a description that applies just as well to both his trainer and rider, incidentally) throughout the whole proceedings, from the moment he was cheered into the paddock from the racecourse stables beforehand to the rapturous
reception he was given back in the winner’s enclosure; connections now face a difficult decision regarding his participation in the Breeders’ Cup Classic,
North America’s richest race, in which Europeans finished first and second last year (the Breeders’ Cup is staged on Santa Anita’s synthetic surface for the
second year running); Dancing Brave, with whom Sea The Stars has been compared, found the Breeders’ Cup a race too far in 1986 and victory for Sea The Stars
would be a real feather in his cap, adding further to his reputation by successfully completing just about the toughest programme that can be set for a European classic 3-y-o; although there were signs that he is starting to go in his coat, his Arc performance clearly indicated that he is still in peak form (his rider reported that the horse had been `scintillating’ in his homework leading up to the race).I’d love to get some opinions on which race you think was Sea the Star’s best performance.
If you would – really would – love to get opinions, rather than to reinforce your own take on matters, then by any handicapping methods I have ever come across Sea The Stars’ wins in the Eclipse and the Irish Champion were comfortably ahead of his win in the Arc, in which some second- and third-raters were quite close up.
Like you, and your friends, I waxed lyrical about the manner of his success at the end of a demanding season. But if I had said the Arc was his best run "by a mile" I would have been carted off to the funny farm.
Did someone just quote Brough Scott’s take on sectionals? Perhaps I am at the funny farm already…
Did someone just quote Brough Scott’s take on sectionals? Perhaps I am at the funny farm already…
Then nurse, please do your duty and take Prufrock his afternoon medicine and hot milk.
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Tha Arc, that field was an incredible one, and he absolutely routed them, with ease. Youmzain, Conduit, Fame and Glory, Cavalryman, Vision D’etat, Stacelita, Dar Re Mi, all group 1 winners.
STS got warm before the race which was in complete contrast to his previous preliminaries, suggesting that it was highly likely he’d run below his best. He then pulled Kinanes arms out for much of the early part of the race, which must have accounted for a a good few lengths at the end.
I’ve never seen a horse get warm and race keenly, before picking up europes biggest 12F prize – it just doesn’t happen, does it?
Do the number crunchers take that into consideration when assessing his performance?
For me, his Arc performance said much much more than than the beating of x,y and z by ‘x’ amount of lengths. It has to.
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I’d love to get some opinions on which race you think was Sea the Star’s best performance.
If you would – really would – love to get opinions, rather than to reinforce your own take on matters, then by any handicapping methods I have ever come across Sea The Stars’ wins in the Eclipse and the Irish Champion were comfortably ahead of his win in the Arc, in which some second- and third-raters were quite close up.
Like you, and your friends, I waxed lyrical about the manner of his success at the end of a demanding season. But if I had said the Arc was his best run "by a mile" I would have been carted off to the funny farm.
Did someone just quote Brough Scott’s take on sectionals? Perhaps I am at the funny farm already…
Disagree with most of that, and agree with Fist that the Arc was probably the greatest race of his life (which it normally is for the winner, despite Timeform’s A beat B, so it must be C approach to handicapping).
In the Eclipse, STS beat the non-staying RVW (Who had the legs of him at the mile pole) and the 12f+ Conduit, and in the Irish Champion he beat another 12f horse in FAG, and the non-staying Mastercraftsman.
How they can brush aside the supposed rise and falls in form that they need to make their ratings fit one of the most consistent and consistently improving horsss of the last decade, yet judge him on a one-paced perennial bridesmaid like La Boum for his Arc run escapes me completely (for which – in anticipation of smart-arse ripostes from the board Mafia – I will be eternally grateful).Well said that man.
Will Timeform be downgrading the performance of Dream Ahead because of the proximity of Foghorn Leghorn?
- Total Posts 17716
Did your friends think La Boum was one of the best mares they’d since since Triyptch?
Some chancer just had to bring La Boum into it
Many many big outdsiders have finished close up in big races because other trainer/connections knew the only way they could win meant taking a risk they wouldn’t normally take if racing in their own sphere.
As a result they don’t get home and some horse they would norammaly eat for breakfast finishes in front of them. Big deal they are no more a factor on how good the winner was than flying in the air.
The same happens when a hot pot seems to have only one real danger against him. The would be danger uses up so much energy try to beat an animal much superior to him that he ends up being passed in the closing stages by some 20/1 no hoper he would normally beat by a fence. It does not make the winner any less or any better a horse.
But what would I know about racing? perhaps you’d be better asking some of Rory’s I’m in racing friends who I’m sure would come up with a much better explanation.
Those who say the Arc was the best form seem to be saying, the Arc is the Arc, therefore it is the best form.
Please would you give facts and figures to the horses to illustrate your point.
I’ve looked at Timeform ratings given in Racehorses 09 and tried to work out the individual ratings of Sea The Stars. To give a possible explanation of ratings. Apologies if I’ve got one or two ratings slightly wrong, but here is how I see it:
Sea The Stars Timeform rating of 140 is based on other races, not the Arc performance. The rating produced to win the Arc by two lengths from Youmzain, with heads back to Cavalrymen and Conduit. Youmzain’s rating goes back to his 2008 Arc Timeform rating 131. Unless you think Jabber’s six year old improved; just about possible blinkers made a difference; but I very much doubt it. Cavalryman (trained by Fabre) improved to a rating of 130 and Conduit ran to form on 130. Dar Re Mi a further length behind on 124 and length to a below form Fame And Glory. The six year old 136/1 shot La Boum just half a length behind, only beaten a total of around 5 lengths. Seemingly showing quite a bit of improvement.
Sea The Stars performance probably a little below form, worth a rating (imo) of around 135 adding a pound for ease of victory136+
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I think your assertion Fist, that Zarkava was “under-rated” does not take in to account the fact she carried 3lbs less (sex allowance). Adding those 3lbs to Zarkava’s 133 makes their Arc performances of equal merit. The Aga’s girl also beat Youmzain two lengths, but was at her best. 133 may not sound that much, but I believe it’s the highest rating Timeform have ever given a 3 year old filly. This was Zarkava’s first and only race against colts. It’s possible she would have been able to show further improvement given the opportunity of more races against males. Sadly she did not race again, that’s not Timeform’s fault. Obviously, top class three year old fillies could improve again if they’re raced at four or five. Goldicova was rated 129 at three, improving to 133 at four.
Sea The Stars’s “below form” rating should be put in to perspective. It’s still possible he’s better at ten furlongs. But I prefer to put it down to pulling early on, hampered more than once and not being in the best position. Oxx’s super Stars turn of foot was electric and a tremendous performance.
If you read the Timeform essay on Sea The Stars, you’d see it is not about "robbing him of glory". All things considered, without being headstrong and trouble in running Sea The Stars may well have put up a 140 performance. But to rate the performance 140 would be pure conjecture. An organisation that rates horses for punters to study and bet from, must surely rate them on performance alone. Not letting sentiment come in to it.If Sea The Stars did run to his best rating of 140 in the Arc, you’d have to rate all the other horses around 4lbs better. That means Youmzain 135, which is 2lbs better than Zarcava and 3lbs better than Dylan Thomas who’d beaten him previous years. Better than any Arc winner this century other than Sakhee 136 (who won by six lengths). Rating Cavalryman and Conduit 134 would be the equal of Sinndar and Hurricane Run.
So to Sea The Stars other races:
Won the Guineas, but improved afterwards. His rating probably worth129p
. Beat Delegator 125 and Gan Amhras 122 by an easy 1½ and ¾ length, with Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman fourth and fifth. O’Brien was out of form at the time and Rip had a late injury scare; both his colts improved later on. Delegator went on to finish a close neck second to Mastercraftsman at Royal Ascot, who also won the Irish Guineas easily by 4½ lengths. Gan Amhras was probably injured afterwards, despite his mile speed never going at any stage in the Derby.
Lord Shanakill 121, beaten 1½ lengths by Mastercraftsman and Delegator at Ascot, won the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat next time out. Also won this years Group 2 Betfair Cup at Goodwood.
In the Derby Sea The Stars beat Fame And Glory 1¾ lengths, with Masterofthehorse 122, Rip Van Winkle and Golden Sword 122 a neck, nose and short head further behind. With Masterofthehorse and Golden Sword close up, keeping the form down; it is impossible to rate the form that highly, even with 6 lengths back to the rest. The Irish Derby did not have strength in depth, but it rarely does. Seperating English Derby dreamers who don’t re-oppose. Nothing wrong with the form of the principles. In what was not the quag-mire some people think. Officially good to yieilding. Golden Sword finishing second; seems right to believe a Derby second at least ran to form. Fame And Glory 133 beat Golden Sword 122 easing down (worth an extra pound or three) by 5 lengths, at least double the distance Sea The Stars did. Third Mourayan 121 another length away had already been twice well beaten by Fame And Glory. The Aga’s colt probably showed some improvement anyway, in first time blinkers. Mourayan next time out was beaten 1¼ lengths by the filly Profound Beauty. Then, would have gone close but for repeated traffic problems in the St Leger. So he upheld the form. Golden Sword ran poorly afterwards but already had a busy season. His runs before, in the Derby and against Masterofthehorse at Chester uphold the form. Masterofthehorse ran poorly at the Curragh and subsequantly sold. On performance Fame And Glory’s Derby is better than Sea The Stars Derby, With the 122 rating of Fame And Glory’s less illustrious stable companions, I’d imagine F&G himself ran to around 123 in the English Derby and Sea The Stars 126. Latter won idling and with something in hand, adding three or four pounds to that for ease of victory
130p
. Oxx’s Star improved afterwards anyway.
Not until the Eclipse did we see the true talents of Sea The Stars. Beat the improved Rip Van Winkle (last year’s rating of 134) for the third time by a length, idling. Conduit (best rating 130), 4½ lengths behind, running a little below best over an inadequate trip, racing to around 125. Ran to roughly the same mark as in the Brigadier Gerrard over the same trip. Beat Cima De Triomphe 115 by 5 lengths in the Eclipse, got beaten a nose trying to give the Cumani horse 7lbs on reappearance. Darley Stakes (Group 3) and Cambridgeshire winner Steele Tango 114 another 4¼ away. Racing Post second and subsequent Group 1 winner Jukebox Jury beaten a total of 14 ¾ lengths; with Champion Stakes and subsequent 2010 Eclipse winner Twice Over 17¼; not able to land a blow (well below their best) in rear.
But it is what Rip Van Winkle achieved in his subsequent start that is impressive. Beat Paco Boy 129 by 2½ lengths with 4 back to a below par Ghanaati. Paco had won the Queen Anne with ease and recognised as one of the best older brigade. Went on to win the Lockinge and finish a close second to Goldicova in this years Queen Anne. Ghanaati was a good winner of the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes. I would think Sea The Stars Eclipse performance with a pound or two added for idling would be rated at137p
.
Sea The Stars not at his best to beat (effectively sole rival) Mastercraftsman a length in the International, a course record none the less. There was absolutely no doubt Mastercraftsman 129 (improving a little), stayed the trip well. Sea The Stars performance 131+ plus a bit for ease of victory, around
133+
.
When they met again in the Irish Champion, Kinane’s Star came out comfortably on top by a total of 5 lengths, with the Irish Derby winner half that distance between them. The rest nowhere. Suppose you could think Fame And Glory was not as good at 10 furlongs as 12. But without Sea The Stars he would’ve been a fine winner. Fame And Glory beat the International Stakes second by 2½ lengths; 2½ times the amount Sea The Stars beat Mastercraftsman at York. Seems right to attribute at least the same rating to this run as the Curragh Derby 133. Beat his stable companion (who was hampered slightly but made little difference) by the distance you’d expect from their earlier ratings and unlikely they both ran the same amount below form.
Mastercraftsman went on to win his Breeders Cup trial with a minimum of fuss before disappointing in USA. Two subsequent poor runs of Fame And Glory in 09 seemed by some to knock the form; but as the cliché tells us, “they are not machines”. He’s shown the same level this term, franking the form. With 133 and 129 Fame And Glory and Mastercraftsman, I would think Sea The Stars Irish Champion could be rated 138+ with a couple of pounds added for ease of victory making140
.
Value Is EverythingMany many big outdsiders have finished close up in big races because other trainer/connections knew the only way they could win meant taking a risk they wouldn’t normally take if racing in their own sphere.
As a result they don’t get home and some horse they would norammaly eat for breakfast finishes in front of them. Big deal they are no more a factor on how good the winner was than flying in the air.
You are talking about when a horse runs below form, another vastly inferior one beats it or runs it close. We are talking about where the winner can’t be rated that high because of the known level of form from other principles. Keeping the performance rating of the winner down. e.g last year’s Derby. It would be easy to think a finish involving Sea The Stars, Fame And Glory and Rip Van Winkle would be rated highly. Those three improved in subsequent races. Proximity of Masterofthehorse and Golden Sword keeps the rating of Sea The Star’s performance down.
The same happens when a hot pot seems to have only one real danger against him. The would be danger uses up so much energy try to beat an animal much superior to him that he ends up being passed in the closing stages by some 20/1 no hoper he would normally beat by a fence. It does not make the winner any less or any better a horse.
It does mean you can’t rate the performance that highly, just that the horse is probably capable of showing better form.
But what would I know about racing?
perhaps you’d be better asking some of Rory’s I’m in racing friends who I’m sure would come up with a much better explanation.
Anyone has the right to an opinion, those in racing or not.
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