- This topic has 59 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
Sea The Stars has ended up with a comparatively poor rating given the unique sequence of Group 1 wins he accumulated – something no horse as ever done before. And his Arc victory seems to be what has anchored his rating.
Eh?
Sea The Stars was rated 140 by Timeform, "one of the greats". Equal best since Brigadier Gerrard. So can’t see where you get "ended up with a comparitively poor rating". The Arc has "anchored" nothing.
Value Is EverythingWhere I do have difficulty is accepting his inflated ratings for the Eclipse and the Irish Champion, a subject you and yours appear at some pains to avoid.
Reet,
You believe Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle do not stay 1m2f so have not counted their rating in working out Sea The Stars Eclipse and Irish Champion form.That despite Mastercraftsman finishing just a length behind Sea The Stars in the International. Had the race been run at a crawl you might be right. Slowly run races favour speed, so a miler can have a kick at the end. However, this race was run in a time beating the track record by some way.
So a race where stamina played a big part, you believe a horse getting within a length of the best horse of the year "did not stay".
After the International and before the Irish Champion, Timeform rated Mastercraftsman at 129. After the Irish Derby and before the Irish Champion, Timeform rated Fame And Glory at (I believe) 133. If both horses ran to form then you’d expect F&G to beat his stable companion by 4lbs. Fame And Glory beat Mastercraftsman by 5lbs, with the latter recieving slight interference. So exactly what you’d expect.
So, if they did not run to those ratings, did both horses run the same amount below form? Timeform did not make the ratings up for these two horses, the boys from Halifax used those two Coolmoore runners past ratings to rate Sea The Stars. There was no fiddling of the books.Rip Van Winkle finished around 2 lengths fourth to Sea The Stars in the Derby at 1m4f, yet you don’t believe Rip Van Winkle stayed 1m2f.
Rip van Winkle showed improved form to be second in the Eclipse in a very fast time. Only beaten by the best horse in training. Yet you don’t believe Rip Van Winkle stayed 1m2f.
Where Conduit is rated as finishing 5lbs below form in third. With other horses behind franking the rating. With Conduit running to the same form as in identical conditions in the Brigadier Gerrard. Yet you don’t believe Rip Van Winkle stayed 1m2f.Take the best horse since Brigadier Gerrard out of the race and Rip Van Winkle would have beeen a comfortable winner. Yet you believe Rip Van Winkle didn’t stay 1m2f.
This year Rip Van Winkle failed to win at a mile, yet won the International at 1m2f. Only getting up in the last strides after being under pressure some way out. Beating the Prince Of Wales winner Byword and Twice Over, winner of Eclipse and Champion Stakes, third to Zenyatta. Yet you don’t believe Rip Van Winkle stayed 1m2f.
What are the odds Rip Van Winkle staying 1m2f given the evidence above?
When racing at a mile both Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle were at pains to make it a test of stamina. Neither having the turn of foot associated with pure milers. Both often looking beaten before fighting back to win.
Seems you are basing your opinion on his trainer saying (possibly with an eye on breeders) "listen, he shows so much speed", or words to that effect.
Value Is EverythingI believe that winning the Guineas was Sea the Stars most impressive performance. Getting an Arc winner ready to win the first classic had to be Oxx’s finest performance also.The Guineas seeems to have been forgotten in the run of successes that followed it but to be the champion over all distances from a mile to a mile and a half is incredible.
I’d love to get some opinions on which race you think was Sea the Star’s best performance?
Easy one that! The Arc without any doubt! Any horse that is judged as a Great has to have won the Arc,its the toughest race in Europe run at the toughest time of the flat racing calender!Dont think
Timeform
are the be all and end all of judges,i had my black books for 10 yrs and yes it was good grounding but i never let them "cloud" my judgement! Sea the Stars proved even Timeform struggled to get an edge on him! AJ you were one of the first on here to follow the great horse,i was firmly in the appropriately named Mastercraftsman camp,so you should be as close to calling it as anyone! Good thread this and even better when its all the "knowledgeables" discussing it!
In fairness to Timeform, they do differentiate between a great performance and a great racehorse. As Ginger points out they
have
rated Sea The Stars as one of the all time great racehorses.
Any method of racehorse evaluation will have its strengths and weaknesses but for any method to be meaningful the calculation must be consistent. Collateral form calculation wont take ground lost at the start, a horse pulling for its head, a poor ride from the jockey, a bad trip, course configuration or the myriad of other factors that don’t relate to how a final form rating will be calculated save using a (+) or a (p). I think attempting to include the more subjective factors into a final form rating would lead to huge inconsistencies over time and render comparisons across generations largely meaningless, so you can understand why they aren’t included and why Timeform gave Sea The Stars the Arc rating that they did.
The shrewder amongst us will evaluate how the more subjective factors have influenced the final collateral form rating and seek to exploit any holes in that rating through the betting market. Buts that’s not the job of the ratings compiler.
- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
"After the International and before the Irish Champion, Timeform rated Mastercraftsman at 129. After the Irish Derby and before the Irish Champion, Timeform rated Fame And Glory at (I believe) 133.
If both horses ran to form then you’d expect F&G to beat his stable companion by 4lb"s.
OMG, Ginger!
I’d doubt even the poorest of rating services would expect a miler and a 12f horse to hold their ratings at every point in between.
Stick to guessing prices, would you?All you keep saying Reet is "he’s a miler". Without giving any evidence. Without showing why all my points about him are wrong. Go through my last post one by one and tell us why you think I’m wrong.
Why don’t you tell us what you rate the performances?
You say Sea The Stars was progressive, you say Mastercraftsman does not stay. So the progressive Sea The Stars must have run a stone below form when winning the International, but still smashed the course record. A course record that has had many Grade 1 horses running over the trip.
I suppose had Mastercraftsman run at 10 furlongs first and then a mile, you’d say he was a 10 furlong horse?
Just because a horse does not win, does not mean he’s run below form.
Many middle-distance horses are equally effective at 10 and 12 furlongs; if given a true test at 10 furlongs. Like Fame And Glory.
Some horses are equally as good at 8 and 10 furlongs; if given a test of stamina at a mile. Like Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle.
So there is no reason whatsoever that both Fame And Glory and Mastercraftsman should not run to form in the Irish Champion.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
I think your probably nearer the mark than most Ginge rating Sea the Stars 137 in the Arc but that is what he was full stop and I maintain his best performance was in the Arc.
You bring times into one of your post but you neglect to take into consideration that around taht time track records were being broken by moderate handicappers such were the conditions. Mastercraftsman never stayed yard behind Sea the Stars and Fame and Glory.
You cannot even begin to compare the two races to come to any sort of solid conclusion.
When you come down to it The Judmonte no more than a match and Mick Kinane only did what he had to do to put the race to bed. It was hardly the type of race to expose an non stayer or confirm he stayed the trip.
The Tatts milllion was a completely different ball game. With JM opting to ride Fame and Glory it was much more of real test that faced Mastercraftsman and when the tap was turned on 2f out he collapsed in a heap and it was hardly his lack of speed that was the issue.
I’m a bit bored going over Rip Van Winkle but I really wish people would stop bringing that damn awful Derby into things. We all know it turned into a downhill sprint and Rip’s class and momentum carried him into a never dangerous 4th a short head infront of a boat. Had he stayed he would have goteen alot closer considering the opposition around him.
While I feel Sea the Satrs was robbed of his proper rating in the Arc I will never accept he was a 140 horse.
Timeform hand these ratings out like candy Harbinger being the latest addition to the all time greats.
Prior to his win in the King George Workforce was without a shadow of a doubt the better horse in the eyes of Ryan Moore and probably SMS as well.
He won the King George by 11 lengths from Cape Blanco who if the Arc is anything to go by is another non stayer with Youmzain who runs some real stinkers mid seasom back in 3rd.
Workforce just finished a furlong in front of those 2 in the Arc and if you want to add Duncan to the list who Harbinger beat only 2 1/2 lengths to the list be my guest because it just makes his 140 look even less believable.
Harbinger’s connections won’t be complaing as it done them a great service and increased his she value no end. You can bet though if you got SMS on the qt and told him Harbinger was a 140 horse and Workforce was 131 horse he’d laugh his head off. On reflection no one can seriously give Harbinger a 140 rating after one performance you can shoor holes in. It reeks of Masterminded and he not been injured there must be a chance it would have been proved totally wrong.
Just imagine if he had run in the Arc and workforce had beat him 5 lengths what then? Workforce tops Se Bird IIIMVHO these ratings detract from the all time greats like Sea Bird II, Mill Reef, Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave etc
Maybe it’s just me but for me it’s the ability to instantly quicken and put considerbale distance between yourself and other good horses that sets you above others. Not winning a handful of Group 1’s against a bunch of horses running at unsuitable distances but a length or so.
Zarakva was the nearest I’ve seen to them in Europe recently she was simply amazing and across the Pond an even better example in Zenyatta who I would love to have sen running in Europe at her peak.
When I see her rated at 131 and Fame and Glory sitting on 134 it just makes me cringe. It would seem you can only beat what’s in front of you doesn’t apply across the pond. She’s an awesome filly any UK trainer would but his hands off to have in his yard.
Hopefully she’s retained all her ability and wins the Breeders again and Timeform push her rating up considerably.
Fist,
Are these ratings you are quoting supposed to be BHA or Timeform? If they are the latter, some are slightly wrong and one or two way out.
You seem to be criticising ratings that aren’t true.
Value Is EverythingMaybe it’s just me but for me it’s the ability to instantly quicken and put considerbale distance between yourself and other good horses that sets you above others. Not winning a handful of Group 1’s against a bunch of horses running at unsuitable distances but a length or so.
But you still have a problem with Harbinger being rated so high? Did you not watch the King George?
Ginger
All you’re doing is taking Timeform’s ratings and trying to justify them;That was what the thread starter wanted.
Does not mean I agree with all of their ratings, most yes. Do understand how they came to those ratings though.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Maybe it’s just me but for me it’s the ability to instantly quicken and put considerbale distance between yourself and other good horses that sets you above others. Not winning a handful of Group 1’s against a bunch of horses running at unsuitable distances but a length or so.
But you still have a problem with Harbinger being rated so high? Did you not watch the King George?
Do you just read a line or two of a post think off a snide remark and let rip?
Harbinger was cracking horse with very good turn of foot but he was never realy tested. There are a dozen horses I could ame that would do what he did to Duncan.
Cape Blanco has since shown he does not get 1m4f and horses like Youmzain who runs half his races like a complete dog is hardly a guidline to follow outwith the Arc.
If you are trying to tell me that Harbinger’s one win and the following events indicate that he deserves the same rating as Sea the Stars I would have to strongly disagree.
His 140 rating cannot in any shape or form be justified anless you are prepared to say he does stay 1m4f and it was pure fluke he ran like a cow both times he tried the trip.
If you want to dispute that then put a case forward. DO NOT come on with silly snide remarks like you’re a lager lout and some kind of moron. Be constructive and let the people see what you’ve got.
- Total Posts 17716
Fist,
Are these ratings you are quoting supposed to be BHA or Timeform? If they are the latter, some are slightly wrong and one or two way out.
You seem to be criticising ratings that aren’t true.
The rating I am looking at are on the Timeform website I haven’t checked to see if the have been changed in the last 24 hours. I may have used a BHA rating in error if discussing past races as I had to search the web for a few things.
If I messed up and you want to correct me be my guest..I’m not as perfect as out King
Harbinger was cracking horse with very good turn of foot but he was never realy tested. There are a dozen horses I could ame that would do what he did to Duncan.
Cape Blanco has since shown he does not get 1m4f and horses like Youmzain who runs half his races like a complete dog is hardly a guidline to follow outwith the Arc.
If you are trying to tell me that Harbinger’s one win and the following events indicate that he deserves the same rating as Sea the Stars I would have to strongly disagree.
His 140 rating cannot in any shape or form be justified anless you are prepared to say he does stay 1m4f and it was pure fluke he ran like a cow both times he tried the trip.
If you want to dispute that then put a case forward. DO NOT come on with silly snide remarks like you’re a lager lout and some kind of moron. Be constructive and let the people see what you’ve got.
I don’t know where your evidence that Cape Blanco does not stay 12f comes from? I don’t think a poor run in the Arc is proof that an Irish Derby winner is ineffective at 12f. There is a piece on betting.betfair.com which explains why Timeform rated Harbinger 140 and I’ll post a link to that but the trouble is that these arguments tend to go round in circles as we all like to think that we are correct.
The great pity is that Harbinger’s injury prevented us from seeing any evidence to support either side of the argument further.
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/features/king-george-winner-harbinger-rated-140—the-reasons-wh-270710.html
The arguments over ratings is somewhat futile. The overriding fact is that Sea The Stars competed in six group 1 races as a 3 year old, winning all; ranging from a mile to a mile and half, and defeating every horse put up against him – some of whom went on to win group 1 races at the end of that year and this.
The bottom line is that Sea The Stars was one outstanding racehorse.
Mick Kinane is adamant that he is the best he has ever ridden. That alone speaks volumes if you consider some of the great horses he partnered during his career.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
My head hurts!
Well said Himself. My thoughts exactly. I would take the opinion of Mick Kinane every time over some number cruncher.
The problem with rating Sea The Stars is that he’d only ever do enough – I think Mick was always keen to look after him because he was well aware of what he had on his hands. Nobody ever really knew how much he had left in the tank.
It is easy to draw comparisons with Moscow Flyer over jumps. He would only do enough to beat a 130s rated chaser like Steel Band. When he was asked to race against the top chasers like Well Chief and Azertyiuop though, he’d beat them the same distance. Nobody ever really got to the bottom of him when he was at his peak – similarly no horse was able to get to the bottom of Sea The Stars. There’s no doubt in my mind that if Sea The Stars had met a New Approach, a Zarkava, a Harbinger or a Zenyatta, he’d beat them by a length or two.
Fist,
David made a valid point which (tbh) I wondered about myself. You’ve gone totally OTT with that abuse, uncalled for.
It seems to me you do not understand what Timeform ratings are. You may well rate horses in a totally different way, which is your perogative. Timeform do not measure durability or number of wins, or whether a horse has a big reputation in a punters mind. Their ratings are purely judged on what a horse beat in each race, by how far and how easily.
If Harbinger ran again in a race, then given ideal conditions and fitness, its readers need to know what rating Harbinger is capable of. Same as any horse running anywhere.
If any horse improves in a hhandicap, they have to react, to rate the horse on that one performance. So punters know what it is capable of next time out. Whether the horse has produced that rating before (durability) does not come in to it. Not to rate it on that improvement would underestimate its chance next time out.
Similarly, adding numbers to the rating purely on how many Group 1’s a horse has won is clearly wrong for their ratings. As it would exaggerate a horse’s chance in its next race.
Whether a horse "deserves" a particular rating on "durability" does not come in to it, although they will mention that and its genuine temperament in the write up.
Cape Blanco may well be better at 10f than 12f. But Harbinger is not rated on Cape blanco’s 10f form. The horse proved he stayed well enough to win the Irish Derby (his run before the King George). There is little reason to believe he did not run to/near that Irish Derby form.
Similarly, Harbinger’s 140 is not rated on Youmzain’s best form, but (I would imagine) Youmzain ran to somewhere near Saint Cloud form. Where he also finished very close to Daryakana.Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.