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Quote: from Maurice on 10:32 pm on Dec. 4, 2003[br]none of those you mentioned were better than RB has already shown.
<br>What’s that got to do with the price of eggs?<br>The point is that each of the three I mentioned ‘came from nowhere’ in their seasons – not even considered contenders at the point we are at in the current season. Yet went on to win the Champion and were not unfancied to do so on the day.<br>Of course, RB appears to have it all tied up form-wise at this stage of the season but there are still three months to go – anything could happen in terms of credible contenders on the day.
All this anticaption, 100 days in advance, of a possible 5/1 winner? Why? There’s lots of racing on tomorrow, Maurice.
As for writing off all possible opposition based on last year’s form…. We know he’s the tops on last year’s form – he won the bloody race! <br>But who would have named Alderbrook the Champion Hurdler at this stage in his season? Or Make A Stand in his? Or Royal Gait in his? There’s a long way to go yet.
Nick,<br>Please accept my apology for the "born loser" comment, I didnt mean for it to be felt to be directed so personally. If you are a successful punter, good luck to you. But easy with the flash figures there – I might have a heart-attack! ;)
Ian (et al),<br>I stand by my original contribution to this thread. And I apologise again that I got sidetracked into mild abuse that might have been taken personally… I should have known that any serious punter’s P/L statement was his soft spot – it was a low blow!<br>But no, I don’t think anyone deserves credit for what might have ensued from this thread. Most especially someone who purports to be a supporter of the game. Its akin to vigilantism. Racing already has its law enforcers. <br>And I think stories like this are just fodder to the popular image of racing as corrupt. We know it is; they know it is – but they don’t need our help in backing up their case. Call it Omerta if you like; or call it the blind eye of love!
tdk,<br>my point is that if you loved the game you’d think the best of it and be willing to be blind to its bad points.
And I never said that I win – just when I lose I don’t moan that I have no chance cos the insiders have it all stitched up.
Oh my god, this is still going on… Would someone please lock this thread?!<br>Guys (tdk, ID, marling, NH, Ted, marling et al), if you’re so perturbed by the "bent" aspects of the game, why don’t you just give it up? And put your minds at ease.<br>I have to say I find it extremely annoying that people who register themselves as users of a Racing forum and consider themselves fans could be so taken up with this nonsense. Racing has enough enemies without.<br>The game will never be completely straight – live with it. It strikes me that only born losers, with their propensity for seeking excuses, are drawn to this stuff.
Mully, on the subject of horses "holding their form" after Cheltenham and not seeming to "suffer the effects of a hard race"…<br>There is an interesting piece by Paul Jones in the Weatherby’s Guide to Aintree where he notes that the old cliche that Cheltenham form doesnt hold up at Aintree is becoming less and less the case. This is an argument verifiable from recent years Aintree results.<br>It follows on from an emerging trend at Cheltenham, highlighted by Alan Potts (or apracing to us!) among others, that a light campaign is the recipe for success – 17 of the 20 winners at the Festival this year had had 4 or fewer outings in the season. And so the extension of this, seemingly, is that since the horses have had light campaigns towards their main target, Cheltenham, they are better able to hold their form for the "afters" at Aintree, Punchestown etc.
That’s right, PaulCS, but forecast 4/7 Nil Desperandum certainly puts me off following my plan!
Overall I thought it was a fantastic meeting…<br>And I would have to reiterate the mentions earlier in the thread for some of the runners in the Sun Alliance Hurdle – I think it will prove to have been an exceptional renewal.<br>And talking my cue from Nick Mordin’s article in last week’s Weekender, I will be taking this race along with the Triumph Hurdle as "races to follow". <br>On my list will be the first eight (past the post) in the SA (Hardy Eustace, Coolnagorna, Pizarro, Lord Sam, Foreman, Sh Boom, Nil Desperandum and Supreme Prince) and the first ten in the Triumph (Spectroscope, Well Chief, Golden Cross, Lilium De Cotte, Mughas, Le Duc, Newlands Gold, Mutineer, Red Wine, Dashing Home) – these 18 horses to be backed on each of their next three outings. That’s 54 bets – let’s see how it does…
Quote: from jasonr on 6:53 pm on Nov. 27, 2002[br]Does anyone know what I am getting at here?<br>
<br>No, Jason, I think you’re operating on a far superior intellectual plane to the rest of us – no-one on here has ever heard of the concept of "value".
Quote: from johnjdonoghue on 10:48 pm on Nov. 26, 2002[br]It was avery poor meeting in Southwell today, reminded me of evening racing in Leopardstown in June!!!!! <br>
<br>Cheers, johnj, that gave me a chuckle – couldnt agree more. It never ceases to amaze me the difference in the class of racing at Leopardstown between NH and flat. I realise it’s getting off the topic of this thread but why is Leopardstown as a flat racing venue so relatively poorly-supported by the racing authorities and the trainers in the class of races and horses and by the public in attendance? Is it from the trainers point-of-view that the course is relatively tight? The venue is absolutely top-class in terms of facilities, vantage points etc
Grandera was well beaten but what a terrible ride by Dettori – why did he go so wide? cf. Fallon’s progress up the inner on Golan.
(The King George, isn’t that 5 months away?)<br>Still, I’m sure it’ll be intriguing as ever. I wonder if Best Mate will go in it again?
Quote: from MorgansHarbour on 8:44 am on Feb. 11, 2002[br]Then again, there are many here who would do a better job than aidan o’ brien – with the same resources of course. <br>
<br>You’re bringing out the nationalist in me now, MorgansHarbour!<br>There has been oil money behind the top British trainers for the past twenty years and noone has a record that comes within a street of what O’Brien has achieved over the past five years (particularly the past season)! He is quite simply a genius and will go on rewriting the record books for many years to come.<br>
Well, jjimps, the handicapper certainly knows more about it than I do! Maybe you are more confident of your own subjective assessment of form.
Quote: from jjimps on 6:46 pm on Jan. 28, 2002[br]Interesting post Nore the problem I see with this system is that once you make an error eg in your choice of horse to be a 6/1 shot middle marker then the mistake is compounded into the odds for all the other runners. One error and the whole book is wrong.
<br>Can’t agree with that, jjimps. My point is that in a handicap you have to give the handicapper his dues – he knows the form better than most and his ratings will be fairly accurate. After you have taken out "dead wood" (those too far out of the handicap, out of form, returning from a lay-off etc.) there should be a correlation between the number of runners with a chance and the average odds against a runner, by definition. You then use things like most recent form, going and distance preferences etc. to separate the runners. BUT this being a handicap there shouldn’t be that much of a deviation from the average. In my example, I may pick the wrong horse to be a 6/1 shot or there may not even be a 6/1 shot but that does not matter, the point is that given the conditions of this example race the odds of the runners should converge towards this figure of 6/1 as an average.
(Edited by nore at 11:07 am on Jan. 29, 2002)<br>
(Edited by nore at 11:08 am on Jan. 29, 2002)
