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In the local newspaper it has been reported that currently the ground is good to soft and soft in places however we are due some warm weather later in the week so I think the plan is to water the course over the weekend. I can confidently say that the ground will be good to soft come Tuesday when the roar of the crowd starts off the supreme Nov hurdle.
I have backed Balthazar King for this. He is my favourite horse in training and has won me a lot of money over the past few seasons. He was 2nd last year and has only been raised 3 lbs and hopefully this time will get his preferred better ground. Connections have decided to bypass the Cheltenham Festival to concentrate on this race so must have a great chance of going one better this year.
Back – Ma Filleule (Ryanair) Must have a great chance as she is a spring horse, tough and has a mare’s allowance.
Lay – Vautour (JLT)
Each Way – Devilment (Triumph) Looked impressive on its last run.I am a trend boy so I have dismissed Coneygree which might be foolish. I am down to 3 in this race – Kings Palace, Southfield Theatre or If in doubt. I will probably make my decision on the day.
The only hurricane next week will be the one chasing faugheen and the new one in the champion hurdle.
Today`s weather in cheltenham was cold windy but blue sky. I will take that if it’s like that this time next week.
I actually live less than 10 minutes from Cheltenham racecourse so let me be your very own “Michael Fish” in the build up for the upcoming week.
This morning I can tell you that we had a small amount of rain over night and this morning there white cloud with small amounts of blue sky.
At the prices I’m not convinced about Peace & Co. Hargam I think would prefer a flat track so my 2 preferences would be either Top Notch or Devilment. The latter looked really impressive on his last start and at the current 25-1 price this would be my preference.
Ma Filleule for me in this race, With the weight allowance I think this horse has an outstanding chance
This I my very first post on this site so I thought I would start with one of my fav races – Supreme Nov Hurdle.
I think Douvan is far to short for this race so I will be looking elsewhere for some value. Lami Serge has looked good but has only been winning small runner races on soft ground. Both Jollyallan and Shaneshill are both iffy jumpers in my opinion so it looks like instead I am looking for a big price winner for this race.
Looking at trends for this race, I want to find something which has won its last race this year and has won on good to soft ground as this is probably what the going will be on the 1st day. From the other runners:-
Qewy, Alvisio Ville, Nichols Canyon, Tell us More, Outlander, Bentelimar – Only won on soft or worse
Seedling, Sizing John, Parlour Games, – Last ran before Jan
Silver Concorde – Never won its last raceSo next in the betting is Some Plan which is 50-1 in some places but this horse meets all my above requirements. Looking at his previous races he needs to improve his jumping but at the price this might be a good each way option.
