February 23, 2015 at 23:39 #752085
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Very quiet on this thread of late but I think it worth a mention that two of the horses who ran behind Peace And Co in The Finesse have done little to frank the form since.
The Paul Nicholls trained horse Ibis Du Rheu had his sights lowered to a Taunton handicap but he cut little ice there, looking nothing special again.
Nicky Henderson’s Bivouac was a well backed favourite for today’s Adonis Hurdle but was pushed along to make headway before being readily outpaced by the winner and then weakening disappointingly to finish 3rd, beaten almost the same distance he was behind Peace And Co last time. Already dropped 8 lbs for his effort behind Peace And Co, he seems set to slip a bit further after this, leaving his 147 rating, for winning a Kempton race that has seen all 8 subsequent runs from those behind result in 8 unplaced efforts, look rather fanciful.
This leaves a few questions on Peace And Co’s form, bearing in mind his short odds for The Triumph. It is true that Zarib, who was third in The Finesse, won a race, but it was such a weak affair that he went off 1/4 Fav.
What “questions” Steve?
Ibis Du Rheu finished last in the Finnesse, beaten 29 1/2 lengths by Peace And Co at level weights. He (a 4 year old) then goes on to finish 4th in a class 2 handicap for established hurdlers, improving on Cheltenham form. He’s in the Fred Winter.
Bivouac beaten 14 1/2 lengths (second last) by Peace And Co at level weights. Giving 3 lbs to Beltor, beaten 14 lengths today. However, is not a horse to judge the two races on, outpaced and nowhere near best in either slowly run race.
Zarib, 12 lengths in 3rd behind Peace And Co, won an ordinary novice hurdle at 1/4 as he liked, without needing to reproduce his form with Peace And Co. Is favourite for the Fred Winter.
That’s all that have run from the Finnesse. However, Peace And Co won a slowly run race very easily; doing all that could be expected at Cheltenham. However, it is his Doncaster run that shows him to best advantage.
I don’t know what your point is here Ginger?
My point is there is nothing to get excited about in the form of Peace And Co’s last run.
Those that have run haven’t done anything worth talking about. Karezak IS surely a solid yardstick but he’s finished second an incredible nine times from his last ten starts and when he did prevail it was only by a head.
With Peace And Co so short in the betting I would be looking for something to show the form in a better light and I am not really seeing it.
The ground is another possible worry and is enough to add to the concerns that would worry me if I had invested on him. Other people can feel free to be as confident as they wish.
It is slightly concerning from my point of view that there is some 5/2 available at the moment for a horse considered a potential odds-on shot by his biggest fans.
Just my take on matters, maybe he is the real deal and will knock Faugheen et al to the kerb next year.
I was disagreeing with your opinion Steve, that’s all.
You were dissing the form of Peace And Co‘s Finesse Hurdle by giving only half the story. Saying “two of the horses who ran behind Peace And Co in The Finesse have done little to frank the form since”. Not mentioning the two finished last and second last. Mention Ibis Du Rheu is “Paul Nicholls trained“, but he was beaten almost 30 lengths by Peace And Co! Mention the horse “had his sights lowered to a Taunton handicap but he cut little ice”… Anyone reading that would think it was an ordinary Taunton Handicap, not a Garde 2! Favourite and top weight was Dell’ Arca, a horse who’d finished 1/2 length second off the same weight of 11-12 (off a 3 lbs lower mark than Taunton) at Cheltenham on its previous start. Ibis Du Rheu finished 11 1/2 lengths 4th off 10-5 at Taunton, actually improving on his 30 lengths last. If anything paying a compliment to Peace And Co.
You mention Bivouac was beaten almost the same distance by Beltor, yet fail to say he was giving the winner 3 lbs. The point I made about Bivouac was he’d been nowhere near his best at either Cheltenham or Kempton and probably needs a greater test of stamina than he got at either venue (slowly run).
The other horse Zarib had gone on to win a Micky Mouse race @ 1/4 effortlessly, without needing to reproduce anything like the form of the Finesse. Therefore can not imo be used to knock or frank the Peace And Co form.
And yet you use these three runs to suggest “This leaves a few questions on Peace And Co’s form”.
My “point” is that in my opinion NO those three horses subsequent runs do not leave any “questions”, the subsequent form of those three horses means next to nothing when considering how good Peace And Co is. Am sure someone could use other form lines if they wished, but not those you quoted…
OK, Karezak has a list of seconds, have you got that wins are best form cap on again Steve? …
Seconds on last 3 starts are:
1 1/4 lengths second, 29 clear of the third, trying to give the winner and current Triumph Hurdle second favourite Hargam 3 lbs (Karezak comes out best horse at the weights).
6 lengths second, 5 clear of the third, in a Grade 1 to Bristol De Mai. In a race of attrition, strongly run on heavy ground.
And the 3 lengths second, 9 clear of the third, recieving 3 lbs from the winner Peace And Co in a slowly run Grade 2.
None of those would I have expected Karezak to win.
The horse Karezak did beat was Golden Doyen at level weights. With 22 lengths back to the third. On his next two starts Golden Doyen won his maiden @ 1/4 by 16 lengths eased down. Then giving away 4 lbs to Hargam and beating the Triumph second fav by 3/4 length. Then on latest start 2 1/4 lengths second to the ridden out Top Notch (Triumph 5th fav) under level weights.
Every horse that’s beaten Karezak over hurdles and the horse Karezak beat in to second – are in the top echelon of juvenile hurdlers.
I’d say giving 3 lbs and an easy 3 lengths beating to Karezak in a slowly run race is excellent form myself. Plenty to get exited about. Although not as good as the Doncaster run. Doncaster was officially soft, but if it was actually soft then judging by the times the Doncaster run must have been even better than I thought! imo He’s run on soft and good-soft and there’s nothing in his action to suggest won’t go on good. By far the best performance of sire Falco on officially good ground, but again, Racing post gave it as beating standard by 1.8 seconds. A pretty fast time, so probably nearer good-firm. Therefore, personally don’t forsee any going problems.
Hargam possibly improved at Musslborough could yet progress again given a testing 2 miles on good ground (sire’s progeny usually love good or fast ground). Beltor showed a lot considering didn’t settle in a slowly run affair. Those two are dangers imo so have saved on them.
Not sure who it is you are refurring to thinks Peace and Co should be odds-on. Is Peace And Co value @ 5/2? In my opinion yes, but of course others are entitled to their own. I’d be surprised if the SP is as much as 2/1. Although don’t particularly care, got plenty of 8/1 and 6’s.value is everythingFebruary 24, 2015 at 15:20 #752134
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Backed Top Notch at 20s (SportingBet) before he ran at Haydock and nothing else really appeals.
May have a saver on Hargam on the day, but likely to go off very short with the McCoy factor?February 24, 2015 at 15:33 #752137
Therefore, imo your post was "a bit unfair" on the C4 team.
The horse is now third favourite.
How is it unfair?
There is a general tendency for the Channel 4 team to get carried away with anything that wins.
Before the trainer had a chance to evaluate Coneygree they were putting words into his mouth about heading to the Gold Cup with the horse. It is almost as if bookies are paying them to hype everything up to try to get some money on board.
I didn’t think 16/1 was value based on the win but some people who are watching are bound to be taken in by the thought of Mick Fitzgerald scampering to get a bet on the horse. I suppose we should just be thankful that Mick was putting his own money on and not asking anyone else
You said yourself Bivouac might not have been best suited by the race and in those circumstances you must have thought 6/4 was poor value. Considering Bivouac had gone down 8 lbs in the ratings after his previous run there was another reason to get less excited about him as well.
Beltor beat All Yours in good style by five lengths but the runner up was a Taunton Maiden winner when 11/10 favourite the time before, and Nicholls had a couple of poor performers on Saturday. To my mind 16/1 for the Triumph on the back of this win wasn’t great shakes as value, when, for example, your own solid marker Karezak is 20/1.
Now that Beltor is 8/1 I think he’s desperate value. In some places he’s only 2 pts bigger than Hargam and it is my belief that the grey horse could show Bivouac a clean pair of heels without much trouble.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Beltor right out of it at Cheltenham and I’m not sure the track will suit him.
Perhaps listening to the Channel 4 hype about Beltor has persuaded the trainer to let the horse take his chance in the Triumph. The best of luck to him if he goes there but I, for one, am fed up with the Channel 4 team hailing the next superstar.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.February 24, 2015 at 15:46 #752138
The Young FellaBlocked
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Totally agree with you RE Channel 4, SC.
As much as I love Simon Holt’s commentary, he’s more guilty than any of them for fuelling the hype machine.February 28, 2015 at 11:00 #764679
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Paul Nicholls’ Ibis Du Rheu was dropped 2lbs to a mark of 131 for his effort in the Taunton handicap mentioned above. I am satisfied that this rests consistently with my comment that he “Cut little ice” in the race, rather than having shown any improvement on his effort behind Peace And Co.February 28, 2015 at 18:34 #768678
Beltor was given a rating of 145 for his win last week, which leaves him one pound higher than Hargam in the rankings.
I am doubtful if this will prove accurate in time but we will see.
The handicapper chose to leave Bivouac on 139 after dropping him 8 lbs for his effort behind Peace And Co the time before. I have some concern that the Henderson horse may have run below that but that’s just my feeling on the matter.
Peace And Co remains well ahead on the ratings and if I could just clear up my comments regarding the ground for him here, by elaborating that the faster ground might not necessarily be any concern to him, but rather that it might help others to perform better than they have shown thus far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 1, 2015 at 19:23 #777965
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At the prices I’m not convinced about Peace & Co. Hargam I think would prefer a flat track so my 2 preferences would be either Top Notch or Devilment. The latter looked really impressive on his last start and at the current 25-1 price this would be my preference.March 13, 2015 at 13:45 #830834
Terrific result for “Broken Down” trainer Nicky Henderson.
Well done Peace And Co fans, it was tougher than might have been expected and the rain, not to mention money, both told their own story.
I suspect the rain put paid to my hope Hargam and the betting told that it had gone against him.
One thing is for sure, he ran a lot better race than Beltor, who was much touted and was rated higher than Hargam by the handicapper. Micky Fitz and the Channel 4 hype at 16/1 was proved all wrong and the trainer who had thought the track wouldn’t suit should have stuck to his guns instead of getting carried away by the hysteria.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 24, 2015 at 12:01 #865384
Beltor was given a rating of 145 for his win last week, which leaves him one pound higher than Hargam in the rankings.
I am doubtful if this will prove accurate in time but we will see
Well, after the dust settled on the Triumph Hurdle the handicapper has decided that, rather than Beltor being 1lb superior to Hargam, Hargam is 9lbs superior to Beltor.
Beltor was dropped 2lbs and Hargam was raised 8lbs. I suspect the truth of it is that Beltor has performed more poorly and Hargam has improved his figure but not by as much as he’s gone up.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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