Triumph hurdle

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2015 Triumph hurdle

This topic contains 38 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by stevecaution stevecaution 4 years, 3 months ago.

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  • #502704
    The Ante-Post King
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    Its time to let next years Champion hurdle winner do the talking…..33/1 has gone,he could be a 16/1 shot shortly,we’ll soon find out but I haven’t seen one like this fellow for one so young.Odds-on Triumph winner?? I think so! :shock:

    #502710
    Nathan Hughes
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    Very good horse Gord.
    What price Douvan for next years Champion?

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #502716
    The Ante-Post King
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    Very good horse Gord.
    What price Douvan for next years Champion?

    25/1 with Bet365 Nath…..But will he go that route?? Thats the trouble with Mullins horses…

    Peace and co

    has only one aim next year so get on.TAPK knows you know! :wink:

    #502719
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Dismal effort from Ibis Du Rheu and that must go down as one of Paul Nicholl’s worst ever over-estimating the ability of one of his horses when placing them this high first time up. Not much there to suggest this was a horse who ran Top Notch to half a length on his first start.

    Today’s result showed Barry Geraghty’s difficult (sic) decision to choose to ride Peace And Co over Bivouac to be nothing more than the usual lip service paid to avoid offending anyone.

    As short as 6/4 for Peace And Co now for the Triumph and he’s the one to beat for sure. My own view would be a little more cautious with Karezak having an annoying looking run of second places, some of which haven’t worked out that great, Golden Doyen for example.

    I’d leave the Champion Hurdle bets until we see how Faugheen gets on in March but each-way at 33/1 on Peace And Co with some of the current crop ageing and/or much of a muchness could be a good ticket to have. The off-putting factor is obviously the dismal record of Triumph Hurdle horses going forward to The Champion.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #502734
    thehorsesmouth
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    Very good horse Gord.
    What price Douvan for next years Champion?

    Goes chasing I imagine Nathan, regardless of what happens in the Supreme.

    #505082
    thehorsesmouth
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    Have a suspicion Dicosimo (20/1) may be the Pricewise horse this evening. It was hard to see what was going on in the fog at Gowran but he looks a powerful stayer and Prussian Eagle gave the form a boost at the weekend. The Henderson horses look to have the edge here but I think Dicosimo could emerge as the leading Irish challenger in the market on the day.

    #751799
    stevecaution
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    Very quiet on this thread of late but I think it worth a mention that two of the horses who ran behind Peace And Co in The Finesse have done little to frank the form since.

    The Paul Nicholls trained horse Ibis Du Rheu had his sights lowered to a Taunton handicap but he cut little ice there, looking nothing special again.

    Nicky Henderson’s Bivouac was a well backed favourite for today’s Adonis Hurdle but was pushed along to make headway before being readily outpaced by the winner and then weakening disappointingly to finish 3rd, beaten almost the same distance he was behind Peace And Co last time. Already dropped 8 lbs for his effort behind Peace And Co, he seems set to slip a bit further after this, leaving his 147 rating, for winning a Kempton race that has seen all 8 subsequent runs from those behind result in 8 unplaced efforts, look rather fanciful.

    This leaves a few questions on Peace And Co’s form, bearing in mind his short odds for The Triumph. It is true that Zarib, who was third in The Finesse, won a race, but it was such a weak affair that he went off 1/4 Fav.

    Channel 4’s team seemed very excited by Beltor’s win today and were gushing and rushing to get on him for The Triumph.

    While the horse has obviously done well, since coming to the stable as a 76 rated Flat horse trained by Sir Mark Prescott, in upsetting Arabian Revolution last time, ( A horse rated eleven pounds higher on the level) and then in winning today, I feel they might just be getting carried away and I think the 8/1 quote is rank value.

    Micky Fitz is allegedly on though, so who knows :shock:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #751805
    Gingertipster
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    Channel 4’s team seemed very excited by Beltor’s win today and were gushing and rushing to get on him for The Triumph.

    While the horse has obviously done well, since coming to the stable as a 76 rated Flat horse trained by Sir Mark Prescott, in upsetting Arabian Revolution last time, ( A horse rated eleven pounds higher on the level) and then in winning today, I feel they might just be getting carried away and I think the 8/1 quote is rank value.

    Micky Fitz is allegedly on though, so who knows :shock:

    That’s a bit unfair Steve. Channel 4 team including Micky Fitz were “rushing to get on” at the price available immediately after the race of 16/1, double the price you quote.

    I was impressed enough to take the 16/1 too as a saver, I would not have taken 8’s. It’s all about the price.

    It’s not what a horse does on the flat that counts. :wink:

    value is everything
    #751809
    Gingertipster
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    Very quiet on this thread of late but I think it worth a mention that two of the horses who ran behind Peace And Co in The Finesse have done little to frank the form since.

    The Paul Nicholls trained horse Ibis Du Rheu had his sights lowered to a Taunton handicap but he cut little ice there, looking nothing special again.

    Nicky Henderson’s Bivouac was a well backed favourite for today’s Adonis Hurdle but was pushed along to make headway before being readily outpaced by the winner and then weakening disappointingly to finish 3rd, beaten almost the same distance he was behind Peace And Co last time. Already dropped 8 lbs for his effort behind Peace And Co, he seems set to slip a bit further after this, leaving his 147 rating, for winning a Kempton race that has seen all 8 subsequent runs from those behind result in 8 unplaced efforts, look rather fanciful.

    This leaves a few questions on Peace And Co’s form, bearing in mind his short odds for The Triumph. It is true that Zarib, who was third in The Finesse, won a race, but it was such a weak affair that he went off 1/4 Fav.

    What “questions” Steve? :?

    Ibis Du Rheu finished last in the Finnesse, beaten 29 1/2 lengths by Peace And Co at level weights. He (a 4 year old) then goes on to finish 4th in a class 2 handicap for established hurdlers, improving on Cheltenham form. He’s in the Fred Winter.

    Bivouac beaten 14 1/2 lengths (second last) by Peace And Co at level weights. Giving 3 lbs to Beltor, beaten 14 lengths today. However, is not a horse to judge the two races on, outpaced and nowhere near best in either slowly run race.

    Zarib, 12 lengths in 3rd behind Peace And Co, won an ordinary novice hurdle at 1/4 as he liked, without needing to reproduce his form with Peace And Co. Is favourite for the Fred Winter.

    That’s all that have run from the Finnesse. However, Peace And Co won a slowly run race very easily; doing all that could be expected at Cheltenham. However, it is his Doncaster run that shows him to best advantage.

    value is everything
    #751821

    stilvi
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    I wouldn’t have thought Bivouac is the most reliable yardstick. Despite market support he has now been very disappointing at both Cheltenham and Kempton. His jumping is pretty slow and awkward and in all probability a speed track like Kempton isn’t going to suit. He has won on soft but he doesn’t have a soft ground action. A longer trip and better ground might eventually get his career back on track.

    I have a small bet on Peace And Co at 8/1 but for me he has plenty to prove relative to his short price and if I had a free bet it would go on Hargam or Top Notch.

    #751822

    Gdc1
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    Gord knows I like to take a chance with my ‘hunches’ before a race, Beltor looked visually very impressive on debut when beating a Nicholls hot pot. The trainer has had a few ‘touches’ come off this season so I took 50s EW for the Triumph only to £5ew but also a fiver at 66s to win yesterday and the Triumph at ONLY 66s!! However the traders have permitted a NRNB if he won yesterday but doesn’t turn up at festival which explained their shortness in odds :-) hopefully get a run but good chance he will go to Aintree!

    #751968
    Gingertipster
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    Gord knows I like to take a chance with my ‘hunches’ before a race, Beltor looked visually very impressive on debut when beating a Nicholls hot pot. The trainer has had a few ‘touches’ come off this season so I took 50s EW for the Triumph only to £5ew but also a fiver at 66s to win yesterday and the Triumph at ONLY 66s!! However the traders have permitted a NRNB if he won yesterday but doesn’t turn up at festival which explained their shortness in odds :-) hopefully get a run but good chance he will go to Aintree!

    Absolutely no chance of Beltor missing Cheltenham for Aintree Gdc, even if connections say there is. Shortened from 16/1 on offer immediately after the race yesterday to a general 8/1 (few spots a touch higher) by bookmakers. If any possibility of deliberately missing Cheltenham he’d be bigger on exchanges; 8/1.

    Got a nice price there! :P

    value is everything
    #752027
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Channel 4’s team seemed very excited by Beltor’s win today and were gushing and rushing to get on him for The Triumph.

    While the horse has obviously done well, since coming to the stable as a 76 rated Flat horse trained by Sir Mark Prescott, in upsetting Arabian Revolution last time, ( A horse rated eleven pounds higher on the level) and then in winning today, I feel they might just be getting carried away and I think the 8/1 quote is rank value.

    Micky Fitz is allegedly on though, so who knows :shock:

    That’s a bit unfair Steve. Channel 4 team including Micky Fitz were “rushing to get on” at the price available immediately after the race of 16/1, double the price you quote.

    I was impressed enough to take the 16/1 too as a saver, I would not have taken 8’s. It’s all about the price.

    It’s not what a horse does on the flat that counts. :wink:

    I’ve said he’s done well since coming to the jumping game, I’m not crabbing his flat rating. Triumph winner Mysilv was very modest on the level.

    I don’t get your point regarding Mick Fitzgerald, I never said he was on at 8/1. I was a little surprised he backed the horse at all because he was all over Peace And Co for the race earlier.

    Time might show Beltor didn’t beat much, I think Bivouac looks primed for a further reduction in his rating.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #752032
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Very quiet on this thread of late but I think it worth a mention that two of the horses who ran behind Peace And Co in The Finesse have done little to frank the form since.

    The Paul Nicholls trained horse Ibis Du Rheu had his sights lowered to a Taunton handicap but he cut little ice there, looking nothing special again.

    Nicky Henderson’s Bivouac was a well backed favourite for today’s Adonis Hurdle but was pushed along to make headway before being readily outpaced by the winner and then weakening disappointingly to finish 3rd, beaten almost the same distance he was behind Peace And Co last time. Already dropped 8 lbs for his effort behind Peace And Co, he seems set to slip a bit further after this, leaving his 147 rating, for winning a Kempton race that has seen all 8 subsequent runs from those behind result in 8 unplaced efforts, look rather fanciful.

    This leaves a few questions on Peace And Co’s form, bearing in mind his short odds for The Triumph. It is true that Zarib, who was third in The Finesse, won a race, but it was such a weak affair that he went off 1/4 Fav.

    What “questions” Steve? :?

    Ibis Du Rheu finished last in the Finnesse, beaten 29 1/2 lengths by Peace And Co at level weights. He (a 4 year old) then goes on to finish 4th in a class 2 handicap for established hurdlers, improving on Cheltenham form. He’s in the Fred Winter.

    Bivouac beaten 14 1/2 lengths (second last) by Peace And Co at level weights. Giving 3 lbs to Beltor, beaten 14 lengths today. However, is not a horse to judge the two races on, outpaced and nowhere near best in either slowly run race.

    Zarib, 12 lengths in 3rd behind Peace And Co, won an ordinary novice hurdle at 1/4 as he liked, without needing to reproduce his form with Peace And Co. Is favourite for the Fred Winter.

    That’s all that have run from the Finnesse. However, Peace And Co won a slowly run race very easily; doing all that could be expected at Cheltenham. However, it is his Doncaster run that shows him to best advantage.

    I don’t know what your point is here Ginger?

    My point is there is nothing to get excited about in the form of Peace And Co’s last run.

    Those that have run haven’t done anything worth talking about. Karezak IS surely a solid yardstick but he’s finished second an incredible nine times from his last ten starts and when he did prevail it was only by a head.

    With Peace And Co so short in the betting I would be looking for something to show the form in a better light and I am not really seeing it.

    The ground is another possible worry and is enough to add to the concerns that would worry me if I had invested on him. Other people can feel free to be as confident as they wish.

    It is slightly concerning from my point of view that there is some 5/2 available at the moment for a horse considered a potential odds-on shot by his biggest fans.

    Just my take on matters, maybe he is the real deal and will knock Faugheen et al to the kerb next year.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #752057
    Gingertipster
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    Channel 4’s team seemed very excited by Beltor’s win today and were gushing and rushing to get on him for The Triumph.

    While the horse has obviously done well, since coming to the stable as a 76 rated Flat horse trained by Sir Mark Prescott, in upsetting Arabian Revolution last time, ( A horse rated eleven pounds higher on the level) and then in winning today, I feel they might just be getting carried away and I think the 8/1 quote is rank value.

    Micky Fitz is allegedly on though, so who knows :shock:

    That’s a bit unfair Steve. Channel 4 team including Micky Fitz were “rushing to get on” at the price available immediately after the race of 16/1, double the price you quote.

    I was impressed enough to take the 16/1 too as a saver, I would not have taken 8’s. It’s all about the price.

    It’s not what a horse does on the flat that counts. :wink:

    I’ve said he’s done well since coming to the jumping game, I’m not crabbing his flat rating. Triumph winner Mysilv was very modest on the level.

    I don’t get your point regarding Mick Fitzgerald, I never said he was on at 8/1. I was a little surprised he backed the horse at all because he was all over Peace And Co for the race earlier.

    Time might show Beltor didn’t beat much, I think Bivouac looks primed for a further reduction in his rating.

    When you think a horse is not as good as the Channel 4 team seem to believe, surely you must give an indication of how good the Channel 4 team believe the horse is? [b:333vh4lu]The whole point of the “gushing and rushing to get on him for The Triumph” is THE PRICE![/b:333vh4lu] The C4 team never at any stage said Beltor has a better chance than Peace And Co; they were just very impressed and surprised at the 16/1 available.

    You said “I feel they might just be getting carried away and I think the 8/1 quote is rank value“. It’s possible the Channel 4 team may even agree with you NOW that the price has halved.

    You’re right Steve, you did not say Fitz was on @ 8/1, but anyone reading your post without knowing what price the C4 team were “gushing and rushing to get on” at… may well have got a false impression of what price they were getting and how good they were implying Beltor is.

    Therefore, imo your post was “a bit unfair” on the C4 team.
    The horse is now third favourite.

    value is everything
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