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Peter, you can virtually guarantee Soll will make it. Teaforthree, and Double Ross are both out, and Soll is the top rated of those on 10-02, so he only needs 2 more to pull out to make it. On previous years, I’d be very confident of Duke of Lucca making it as well
I was wondering if there had already been a ballot this year as the Racing Post haven’t got the ones on 10 2 in alphabetical order ,that being said they will almost certainly be down to 55 in the list by raceday
Aaand Peterh who gave you permission to be showing an interest in my Soll
… I forgot you could get on here!
Betfred go 8/1 Shutthefrontdoor to start 10/3 or shorter. I think that should be about half that price.
In 2006 Clan Royal went off 5s Jt Fav with Hedgehunter and he’d have nothing like the PR blast AP’s mount will have this time with him announcing he’ll retire if he wins it. The horse arguably has a stronger form profile than Clan Royal had, too. But the key thing is that the Aintree bookies have got worse each year and their behaviour seems to be tolerated. They shorten many and lengthen few if any, the closer they get to the off. This fav only needs to half his current price to land the bet
Betfred go 8/1 Shutthefrontdoor to start 10/3 or shorter. I think that should be about half that price.
In 2006 Clan Royal went off 5s Jt Fav with Hedgehunter and he’d have nothing like the PR blast AP’s mount will have this time with him announcing he’ll retire if he wins it. The horse arguably has a stronger form profile than Clan Royal had, too. But the key thing is that the Aintree bookies have got worse each year and their behaviour seems to be tolerated. They shorten many and lengthen few if any, the closer they get to the off. This fav only needs to half his current price to land the bet
I think that’s a better bet than him winning the race at 7/1 Joe.
What is more likely:-
A horse beating off 39 other horses in a handicap over such a demanding trip, with 30, albeit easier, fences to negotiate and some dangerous rivals in the mix?
Or
A horse being hyped up to the max with the AP swansong machine going full tilt and mug punters backing it believing, in some cases, that it’s been set up so that McCoy wins it. These people will stick money on if it’s 6/4, never mind 10/3. We know that the special Bookmakers’ Edition of the board game Scruples is actually just an empty box, so there’s every chance they will limbo under a snake whilst still wearing John McCririck’s top hat.?
Here’s the plot Joe.
Put a Squillion Quid on at 8/1 that he goes off 10/3 or less. Then put a Squillion Quid on him to win the race, so they are forced to cut him to 3/1.
Two Squillion Quid invested, Nine Squillion quid returned, Seven Squillion quid profit.
How can we lose Joe?
ps That’s a Squillion quid charge for the plan, so you only win Six Sqillion and I’ll win Eight Squillion but that’s democracy and the free market for you. Think I’ll buy a horse with my money, there’s a cuddy called Al Naamah going cheap I hear.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, you’ve sold it to me. I’m off to the Squillion Bank for a loan :)
Seriously, we’re going to here little all week other than AP’s last National. 8s is a great price. Fill yer boots!
Steve, you’ve sold it to me. I’m off to the Squillion Bank for a loan
Seriously, we’re going to here little all week other than AP’s last National. 8s is a great price. Fill yer boots!
I think the odds are terrific given the scenario Joe. We could be sitting half tipsy by time they get to Beechers and not really sure whether it is AP McCoy or Sylvester McCoy we are seeing by time the post race interviews are airing.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It looks as if my ante-post bet, Home Farm has been withdrawn with the trainer suggesting at eight he was too young.
It begs the question as to why be so stupid as to enter him in the first place? I think he was also entered last year.
After a promising start his season has deteriorated into a total shambles with the horse being pitched in above his level. It appears his best form is right-handed so next year’s National wouldn’t appear the best idea but I suppose they could have a bit more fun by entering and withdrawing him again.
Officially withdrawn today
Sam Winner
Home Farm
Double Ross
Hadrians Approach
Benvolio
Teaforthree
Merry King
Renard
Sydney PagetSoll is guaranteed his place now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hopefully, narrowed it down to the following seven:-
Lord Windermere (best priced 40/1) – presumably didn’t take that much out of himself with a dire performance in the Gold Cup but if he reproduces his Gold Cup/Sun Alliance winning performances he is clearly well handicapped; better ground should suit.
Rocky Creek (best priced 10/1) – bolted up at Kempton but it probably wasn’t the greatest renewal of that race; decent enough jumper to get round again but big question as to whether he finishes off better than he did last year.
Balthazar King (best priced 10/1) – Mr Dependable and no doubt many will see him as the each-way bet to nothing; clearly been saved for the race but a year on can he really go one better?
Shutthefrontdoor (best priced 7/1) – Another saved for the race and clearly has a big form chance; just wonder if he will take to the fences as the odd ponderous jump on quickish ground might leave him playing catch-up.
Pineau De Re (best priced 25/1) – Impressive winner last year but has looked a stone below that level this year; perhaps a return to Aintree might rekindle the fire, it will need to.
Spring Heeled (best priced 20/1) – Bold jumping performance to just get home at last year’s Cheltenham Festival; should relish the better ground and likely prominent racer but guesswork as to whether he will see it out.
The Druids Nephew (best priced 14/1) – Progressive profile since changing stables and looks nicely handicapped; capable of hitting the odd fence and consequently appears to need plenty of organising so loss of Barry Geraghty looks a big minus.
In conclusion, nothing ticks all the boxes in what doesn’t look the best renewal. Most, if not all, of the value has already been sucked out of the market. Balthazar King is the most obvious each-way candidate but at the moment I would be leaning towards a win bet on Shutthefrontdoor because he might just be too good and a couple of each-ways more in hope than judgement on Pineau De Re and Lord Windermere.
I am happy to give Al Co the benefit of the doubt in the becher and make him my main selection. 11-12 and soft ground not his cup of tea and better conditions on Saturday to suit. Stable in good nick, nice racing weight and denis o regan now booked. Sounds good to me.
Wouldn’t put anyone off Alvarado or Soll to run good races either.
Roll on aintree and good luck all!
Martin
Aye, Martin, Al Co catches the eye as do a few others low in the weights who are likely to stay and look decent value: Royale Knight, Court by Surprise, Gas Line Boy, Portrait King, but the one that seems best value among that group is Aintree specialist Saint Are at 40/1.
He seems to love the track and after a move to Tom George this season is at last showing some consistency. He ran really well in the Becher, and finished 9th in last year’s National, his only outings over the big fences. He’s won over hurdles here and over the Mildmay course, and is now high on my shortlist, and number one for value.
I’m very sweet on Saint Are although I usually dismiss horses that have tried and failed in the past. He was far too young before. His win at Aintree a couple of years back was in a race that can show up future National horses. Whether he’ll quite get home I’m not sure about but he’s a horse I can’t NOT back having backed plenty [as usual] but missed out most of the fancied horses. I’ll come clean with my many bets closer to Saturday.
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