- This topic has 320 replies, 51 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Forgive me jumping aboard this thread so late on but I was wondering what your thoughts are on the hike in weights Saint Are has had since the Becher?
I have backed him for the National but am very concerned about a mark now 16 pounds higher than then.
Is he good enough to defy that?He’s only two pounds higher in the Grand National, off a mark of 129. In future races his mark will be 143, so, in theory, he’s 14 lbs well in in the Grand National.
Similarly, Rocky Creek is now rated 163, but when the National weights were framed he was only 154, so he’s 9lbs better in than his mark. Druids Nephew is another who is well in after his last run and he carries 10 lbs less than he would if the handicapper framed the race today.
Hope that helps clear that up.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was going to say that handicap stuff isn’t as important in the National as course form and then I realised that I’ve backed Al Co as well! I can only put it down to womens logic! I’m getting more and more worried about the fact that I haven’t backed Soll though and have missed the price on him.
The national entries list can be found here:-
http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=867010&meetingid=&date=2015-04-11&ref=form&refsite=
Underneath the ratings of the relevant horses you can see a figure in red or green. This indicates the number of pounds the horse in question is either worse off at the National Weights, or better in at the National Weights, than they will be in future handicaps. Red equates to worse in, green equates to being better in.
Hope that interests or provides assistance to some readers.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sorry, I thought his mark of 143 was his mark for the Nash.
(I’ll close the door on my way out.)Sorry, I thought his mark of 143 was his mark for the Nash.
(I’ll close the door on my way out.)No need to be sorry, it’s easily confused.
It’s all part of the fun and games of trainers trying to hide their horse’s ability from the handicapper and at a certain area of the weights it’s a game, do you show your hand and get a weight that lets you get into the race, or hide and risk getting balloted out?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What price do you think Shutthefrontdoor will go off at ?
Steeplechasing posted that Betfred were offering 8/1 on the SP being 10/3 or lower.
Solid alternatives Rocky Creek and Balthazar King are helping to keep Shutthefrontfoor from being too short for now but the AP, JP, Jonjo mix always attracts money and with it being AP’s last ride in the race there will be little focus on any other horse.
The thinking will be that the horse has been laid out to send McCoy into retirement on a high and you could imagine a lot of casual punters getting sucked in with no concept of value in their minds.
Betfred have 5/1 or 6/1 as the favourite in their SP betting market for Shutthefrontdoor. The price on that outcome is 6/5.
You would think it insanity to see the horse trade at less than 4/1, with that being the break-even price for punters betting each-way and getting a place. Imagine the scenes, if he went off 3/1 and was second and huge queues waiting to see how much they have “won”, only to find they get less back than they staked. I predict a riot, I predict a riot.
If forced to pin a price down I’d say 5/1 but 8/1 for those greedy bookies to plumb new depths is tempting odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ignatian wrote:</div>
Forgive me jumping aboard this thread so late on but I was wondering what your thoughts are on the hike in weights Saint Are has had since the Becher?
I have backed him for the National but am very concerned about a mark now 16 pounds higher than then.
Is he good enough to defy that?He’s only two pounds higher in the Grand National, off a mark of 129. In future races his mark will be 143, so, in theory, he’s 14 lbs well in in the Grand National.
Similarly, Rocky Creek is now rated 163, but when the National weights were framed he was only 154, so he’s 9lbs better in than his mark. Druids Nephew is another who is well in after his last run and he carries 10 lbs less than he would if the handicapper framed the race today.
Hope that helps clear that up.
I think you’ll find the At The Races figure is wrong Steve, just take a look at where Saint Are is in the line up and rivals marks around him. On 10-6 the same as Across The Bay who’s also on a 143 mark. Saint Are ran/won on 9th Feb, weights came out on 17th Feb. His mark went up from 129 to 143 BEFORE the weights came out. He IS on 143 in the Grand National, not 129. Not “well-in” at all.
This is what I made of Saint Are in my Grand National write up:
24) F-3331 Saint Are (9) 10-06 Tom George 143 Paddy Brennan
Change of stables has paid dividends; jumping has improved significantly, possibly due to a switch to racing prominently. Only error at Catterick (3m1½f good-soft) coming at the first, showing best form for some time. Trouble is he’s made things harder here, up from 129 to 143 and never previously been successful off so high a mark. Eased for a 7 lengths victory over Everaard who received 12 lbs; runner up was pushed along throughout and favourite Red Devil Boys lost all chance slipping on home turn. Saint Are may not be the best handicapped horse on what he’s done, but could yet improve at his beloved Aintree/Spring. 3¾ lengths 3rd in Becher (3m2f good-soft) has progressed since and now 7 lbs worse off with winner Oscar Time. Jumped well and further they went the better, responding to pressure. Also winner of 2012 3m1f handicap chase and 2011 3m Sefton novice hurdle on Mildmay Aintree course both at this meeting. Goes on soft or good ground. Gives the impression could see further progress over extreme distances.Here’s the full Preview:
https://theracingforum.co.uk/racing-articles/grand-national-2015-horse-by-horse-guide/Value Is EverythingAs has been pointed out, The ATR website have made a balls of their handicap mark/National weight tables. Looking further at it there are other mistakes in there as well. Shambolic effort from ATR really and its a bit sad that you can’t rely on one of the bigger names in the Racing game to get their facts straight.
The bad news is that Saint Are is running off his actual 143 mark, so he’s not well in after all is said and done.
I met a retired local bookie today and asked for his opinion and he said he was wiring in to Shutthefrontdoor in a big way. Not the most original selection but that’s his tuppence worth anyway.
Sorry to Saint Are fans for building your hopes up there
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I tend not to bother too much handicap wise with horses carrying less than 11st anyway and Saint Are is a horse I was always going to back again this year. I’m just fascinated to see if the real, genuine stayers come out on top. Interesting to look at Pineau de Re’s racing stats; he must be one tough horse because, prior to winning the National he’d pretty much been on the go year in year out. Dr N said last summer was a big holiday for him and he’d never trained him before after such a long break. I think his longevity is due to the fact that he’s always been campaigned over both fences and hurdles [which is why he’s kept him hurdling this year; that and because he was less likely to pick up an injury]. He’s now doing 3 miles a day, has jumped a few fences and is in very good shape.With Lord W keeping the weights down from the top it wouldn’t surprise me to see a big run from the horse again. For anyone interested in the size of horses both PdR and RK are 16h.
I was wondering WTF you was on about Steve. Now I have read the thread in full I see this has been corrected
It was mentioned on twitter today that Aintree has altered the way they dress the fences – more of an intertwining of the spruce than just piling it on. I don’t know if there is any truth in this, but watching the slomo of the Foxhunters, the dressing did seem more resilient, not tumbling off at the merest touch. I doubt it will make any practical difference, but the second circuit should see the fences in better shape without so many gaping holes.
Although I love this warm weather, I am happy it is to cool down for the horses tomorrow. I remember the last sweltering day in 2011 when a lot of the horses, including the winner, finished exhausted and dehydrated.
My final selections (in alphabetical order) read as…
Balthazar King – Knows this place well, jumps well and will stay. Only 3lbs up from last year, so expecting another big run.
Godsmejudge – Probably the best stayer in the field and comes to life in the spring. Always have time for Scottish National horses.
Monbeg Dude – Been consistent all season, bar an uncharacteristic run at Cheltenham last time. Ticks the right boxes for me.
Saint Are – Loves this course, loves the Spring and shapes like he’ll relish an extreme trip. Expect to see him stay on at the end.
Soll – Ran a good race in 7th two years ago and no reason to suggest he won’t stay. Running style also suits this race.
The Rainbow Hunter – Very unlucky last two years and needs to get over a bad run last time, however his rider can’t stop winning!Another year another National. Love this game!
See we have a non runner ,don’t see the point in having reserves if they get less than 24 hours to get in are your once a day punter to thick to be able to cope with reserve next to the name of a runner .
Should be at least given til midday for horses to come out.The newspapers will just have to cope .
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.