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sackville is also unbeaten around cheltenham fences. it counts for very little escorial.
if llt and bacchanal jumps the last together – llt might give the better jump, maybe gain two lengths but bacchanal will eat the hill and win going away. I agree with Suny and Prince, Bacchanal for me. He wont have as much opportunity to jump right in a packed cheltenham field. It might just make him concentrate.
wasnt the plan to leave him "in his box" for w ahile before being preparing him for the champion. Then again, there are many here who would do a better jon than aidan o’ brien – with the same resources of course.
another thing not factored in the stats is that for at least thirty years and possibly up to Persian War, the hurdling was seen as a stepping stone to steeplechasing, and all the champion hurdel do was show a potential champion chaser or gold cup for the future. The only ten year old’s going for the race pre 1970 – underestimation ?? – were failed chasers that still had ability.
I think landing light is a decent horse but the field he beat at Kempton were poor. I wasnt impressed by Bilboa at sandown, he was beaten well by JDC, he won well at aintree in ground where form is tough to gauge at best. IN the agfa gained 3 lengths over the second last and plugged on. The super juveniles of last year havent performed well this – i backed landing light in a big way ( for me anyway) for the tote gold trophy last year , he was outpaced by that superstar bring sweets and co coming into the straight. That he picked up and won well off 10-2 was very well done. Kempton, he was niggled all the way around. If he runs the same way at cheltenham he will not win. They will have gone from him. He is improving, something that cant be said about the favourite, and i wouldnt mind seeing him win at Cheltenham , but he still has it to prove on the book. <br>He’s not even second favourite, why are we going over this again in this thread.
Istabraq is the one to aim for, he should be favourite, istabraq of last year minus 6lbs still wins this champion in my opinion. I said this ages ago, what you are betting on is O’brien getting the horse right. <br>
In any ante post bet, there is a risk that the horse will not make it. Ever backed relkeel? IS teh issue in fact that if istabraq runs, he will be fit, arthritis unaffecting him, bleeding not a problem, then he should be at best 1/1. Some think he will be 3/1 – despite being backed from 9/4 to 7/4 in all major irish books yeasterday. If he doesnt , you have all missed your price on LL and VALRI.
Bilboa is no superstar and beating her at kempton in the way that LL did, did nothing to boost his chances in my eyes. Valiramix looked very useful when beating TFF. But these runs to me are not nearly as good the form Istabraq displyed 12 months and 10 months ago in ireland. They others still ahve it to prove in teh fomrbook. Can Istabraq recapture this form after a lacklustre seasonal debut like last year?
Steve you are confident about marlborough in the gold cup, but none so about istabraq in teh champion hurdle. Yet it was marlborough’s stable that have said that he had an operation, while we are only dealing with speculation and rumour with regard to istabraq. The same speculation and rumour that appears this time in the past two years, the same speculation and rumour that has proved irrelevant. Until he loses – not falls – he should be favourite. id nearly go as far as to say , until he loses in march, he should remain favourite.
Fair enough Steve, but istabraq hasnt had the same amount of racing as a normal ten year old. A conscoiuos plan put in place three years ago. He is unlucky not to be going for his fifth champion. Istabraq improved about a stone for his run in the leopardstwn christmas hurdle last year. The question that needs to be answered is can he improve that again from this years renewal and is it enough. I dont think the opposition is stronger, and istabraq has never had to be tuned up to concert pitch since March ’00.
sorry steve, i respect your opinions on a lot of horse racing issue, but you are talking utter crap about sea pigeon being late maturing – a horse that faously ran in the derby at 3 and finished second twice to monksfield before winning the champion hurdle at the age on ten
burst or no burst, he hasnt bled for three races, that is if he bled at christmas last year,. he didnt bleed when he had to struggle to beat bust out. Limestone lad and first gold are proof that really there is no point backing horses ante post without factoring in the chance that they mightnt turn up. Why have ballydoyle not said anything about his injury or affliction. They arent exactly tom tate when dealing with the press. Could it be that if istabraq does get to the races at the top of his game, JP would relish the 3/1 that those brave layers would gave him.
I wouldnt like my fancy humping 12 stone in a competitive handicap on saturdays forecasted ground. But then again, IM no martin pipe.<br>
Steve , do you think If istabraq ran to teh level of form he did this time last year in the Aig , or in April in the rerouted punchestown champion hurdle that he will not win?
I think Milan will give sakhee a run for his money this year. He was ridden strangely in the arc and flew home. He doesn’t have to improve much.
anybody know el gran senor’s rating as a 3yo?
El gran senor must have really impressed at 2 to get an officail rating 2lbs superior of Johannesburg. Arazi’s performance in his juvenile was simply the most breathtaking race ive seen. (I know Daylight agrees with em on this one.) Rob – for a horse that everyone said wouldnt stay a mile, johannesburg did well to win the race by stamina. the leaders fell in a heap , but there was never any sign that Johannesburg wasnt comfortable going that pace. For a horse with stamina doubts to turn out that performance. The doesnt seem to be half the hype-hoopla surrounding him. Quotes coming out that hawkwing might be the best. etc. etc.
Nayef, celtic swing, distant music , alhaarth were considerd home and hosed in the guineas by many at this stage of their 3yo careers. What johannesburg did was light years ahead of any of these four.
