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Cover up is a very quirky horse. Remember he would have had ot come around Dusky Warbler as well had he held him up to come wide. Unfair punishment for a short head defeat. Persian Punch may have been galvanised by going eyeball to eyeball with another horse, but Cover ups turn of foot is hardly electric and pulling him wide when the gap appeared up the rails would be akin to horse racing suicide. he did got 3/4l up in the final furlong.
Well said stav. I think it was the jockey more than anything that got him second in the gold cup, and it was due to no samll measure of martin dwyer than he got up on saturday. There would have been plenty blaiming him for leaving fallon up his inside has he been beaten. i think he gave the horse a target.
i dont think that you are diagreeing with me re galileo PR. I think it is forgotten how good he actually was on derby day, and in the KG. I do think that he should have had an arc prep rather than the 10f route. He was hyped by teh press at the time, but his actual achievements have been forgotten and underplayed by the public. Golan didnt hurt the form much last year.
HW justified the hype in the lockinge, its just that he isnt consistent enough to run that well back to back, he is too inconsistent to back at odds on. But the fanstasy 7/2 offered on a differnet thread woulod be the best value saver for anyone fancying anything against HW in the race.
What surprises me is that the QA is seen to be HW true running by most on the forum.
I think that one horse that was blown out of proportion to his actual ability was Galileo and was symptomatic of one horse that the coolmore breeding interest actually effecting the racing ability of the horse. O’Brien talked him up as having the speed to be a miler and thought about running him in the QE2 after winning the KG. I think O’brien actually believed this. He went for the irish champion and was beaten by one of teh best older 10f horses we have seen in recent years. However, teh brillinat galileo that won the derby and KG are forgotten about. He will rarely get mentioned in O’briens best horses, unless he comes back into the limelight as a super stallion.
As dL stated HW could go the same way. Both horses were/are from teh top drawer and produced some briallint performances. How quickly the hype fades. HIgh Chapparal did very little wrong as a derby winner, adn one could question if the decision to run him in the arc as wise.
Jim, seriously, why post, leave teh thread end when no one wants to post. If HW wasnt being talked about, this place would be pretty quiet at the moment – as it was for stretches before.
Daylight, are you suggesting that Istabraq was hype, and I think Kris Kin is the worst derby winner this decade.
There is a difference between Ballydoyle and the Racing post. I think it is lazy journalism from assholes like Claude duval and RP subeditors that has hyped horses injudiciously. It was airwave before ascot, it is choisir now. Johnny murtagh’s quote that he will win everything if he stays at this side of the world was all over the press in teh past week.
Ballydoyle are past the stage now when they need publicity to survive. They welcome it as any business would, but i dont think that magnier et al are writing scripts for O’brien after his horses run. In fact, O brien is very circumspect when talking about his horses. (Ever seen Oliver Brady) Sadlers wells and before him MVOB winning those gp1s over the years has done more than enough to publicise Ballydoyle.
six perfections and russian rhythm in too short, and possibly a little more value in HW if the vibes were right, long break, pleased in teh preliminaries etc, pricewise would put up soviet song. too big a difference in price between her and RR for 1.5l beating.
Was tillerman injured or something?
Flagship is right, these are the stock phrases that ballydoyle use. however, its like teh game of two halves, coudlnt have done it without the team the type of nonsense that is trotted out after soccer games by star players.
O’brien and the operation that he works for dont give information away for nothing. O’brien has never come out and said that such and such a horse is the best Ive trained. I dont know where thats coming from. He doestnt volunteer information, he is asked for comments.
It is teh crucifiction of hw when beaten (happens a lot) liek that of FP, in which so much delights some. Maybe part of it is a national thing. Not in a bad way, but there is an element of the irish get so excited about there horses, but really there not that great.
Is the reason why there’s no dancing around when horses like Kheylf, killer instinct, (and Ballydoyle hyped horses!!) and possibly airwave tomorrow is because the irish look at racing slightly different to some on here. The irish seem to get more passionate, easier to wind up than others. (There seems to be a national divide on this thread)
How many times does First gold, flagship uberalles, have to disappoint before being reclaimed as the champiosn that they rightfully were at the end of the jumping season. Florida pearl beat Best mate, fair and square in my opinion, was officially rated the highest chaser, and gets nothing but criticism.
Its a funny old world.
Jim, if the thread doesnt interest you, dont read it.
I agree re dancing Brave.
It wasnt just WOW in the Lockinge. How about saying that Tillerman ran the same race in the Lockinge and QA. Also Domedriver, Olden Times, and ReelBuddy all ran between 14 and 20lbs below form. It may have happened in the lockinge but history tells us that the occurances of all horses bar one running between a stone and a stone and a half below form are extremely rare if not unique.
i agree meshaheer. Kinane’s ride had absolutely nothing to do with HW underperforming.
and Ian I dont bear any grudge against Jamie Spencer. He knew after the race that he had mistimed his effort. Dancing brave, for all his greatness, didnt win the derby after all did he. Horses rely on jockeys to judge pace, and where to put them in the race, they dont know where teh winning post is, and run over distances that where they are not all allowed to bolt and go as fast as they can for as along as they can. It aint dog racing.
The official handicapper only puts on paper using the most trusted metods availbale to him what we all do in our heads and some attempt to put to paper. His is historically the best guide to guaging the merits of horses that have never run against each other, and resolves many arguements, an extreme example would be that Quixall Crosset was never beaten by arkle so Arkle still had something to prove. As you say, the handiccaper is only one mans opinion. However, it is his metier, and its his opinion, not mine, not yours upon which can rest millions of pounds.
I thought that teh lockinge form was suspect, but the figures backed it up in spades.
Ive no doubts that nijinsky was a super horse, and i dont need education on sir ivors career. (Apologies if i misfelt a patronising tone in your post dave) Its not my fault if tongue in cheek doesnt get noticed. However, I have also heard MVOB expressing a similar view. Nijinsky has sired and is the grand sire of many group 1 winners, and whichever of teh two is best
The point I’m trying to get across is that wherever teh public esteem a horse to be brilliant, there are more than likely some faction, who without assessing teh horse on its merits, will unquestioningly hold some grudge against the horse, and delight in its downfall. I’m sure had such forums existed in bygone days, there would have been a certain set of i-told-you-so merchats when dancing brave won the KG by a length, lost the derby, and lost the BC, when nashwan lost in france, when shergar lost the leger, when nijinsky lost the arc, when dayjur lost in BC, when mill reef lost the guineas, when el gran senor lost the derby, arazi lost in knetucky they would be out in force.
The fact remains that HW is officially the best miler in 20 years. not my opinion, the handicappers. To get this figure he in fact had to act conservatively on the lockinge run. HW is never going to be as consistent as a shergar, a nashwan, a dancing brave, but then again, neither did they win group 1s at three different ages.
Take teh horse at his merits and make up your own mind. I dont think that it should be colored by the press it recieves good or bad.
Even lester piggot has stated that Nijinsky was only a good horse in a poor year and rates Sir Ivor (who???) ahead of him. He had a nice name, travelled well on teh bridle and went into the horse racing fraternity’s consciousness as a superstar.
Coolmore do this. I actually dont think that it is coomore as such, it is more teh lazy jounalism, if you could call it that, of the RP, and the other tabloids, with their full page speads claiming each horse to be the superstar that we have been waiting for. Christening giants causeway teh iron horse. Its not coolmore doing this. What the do is try to make most horses win at a mile for stud purposes, even if it doesnt suit the horse. Its their business, they can do what they want.
Dung, I didnt take 4/6 in teh QA, because what Ian has properly stated that it was assumed that the lockinge was his typical performance. There was no guarnatee that he would repeat it. However, I disagree with ian on one point, I always said that that one performance was a performcance of a great horse. Proper champions need to produce it time and time again, but that again shouldnt take away from teh newbury run. I agree I dont think that WOW or Moon Ballad ran thier best races in Last eyars derby, but it is an exceptional horse that ran so close in last years derby – behind an above average winner – to show teh speed he did at Newbury.
Everyone has dismissed Tillerman’s form at newbury where he couldnt go the pace. Even now people are saying that he needs a strong pace to show his best. Not HW strong though. Needs cover is about as useful as an excuse as HW’s lameness.
Sorry Ian, your point about teh draw in the guineas is quite ridiculous. That had he been the superstar he would have got up. If teh jockey had set him alight 100yards earlier, he would have won going away. Horses can be intellegent but they still rely on teh jockey to know where teh winning post is.
For a horse that many now accept, like O’Brien that had a lot of niggely problems last year, and for one that has labelled bottler thrown at him, he won the eclipse, a poor one, in workmanlike fashion, he battled bravely in defeat to Grandera in teh champion. For a horse that always threatened to be better as a 4yo. He hasnt done that bad.
I too would think that he needs a longer break. Maybe even 4-5 months. But the point is nobody, not even O’brien seems to know what he can produce from one day to the next. At his best, he takes a lot of catching despite his form figures. His derby run is more remarkeable each time i see the formbook. To think that teh majority sees him now as a natural miler.
Nick, I dont hate people who automatically oppose the hype. I understand that all punters look for an angle, and many have made money opposing hawk wing on that basis. best of luck to them.
I agree with you that a 1/5 shot may be value and then again a 50/1 may be short, and vice versa.
However, there is a slight difference between being an out and out punter, who only sees horse racing as the best method of using your intellegence to gamble money, and horse racing lover, who doesnt care as much about the punting aspect, but is more interested in seeing special performances from special horses.
I know not to bet with your heart, but then again, my father backed Mill House to beat Arkle and went down in my estimation because of it. Me, I delight in watching racing, I punt alongside this. basicially to win money on the back of something I adore.
Hawk wing is a horse that any one of us forumites would love to have. He is being knocked simply beacuse he has been hyped by the media. Fine, he was 3/1 to win the lockinge on the day.
can i give a few other exmaples, <br>Other hyped horses that were knocked include Danoli, Dawn Run, Lescargot, and the aforementioned galileo. (note the irish link) These horses like hawk wing achieved an awful lot but because they were overly hyped in the media, people like to underplay their achievements, and sneer.
It is as Dung has said a part of the PR machine that is Coolmore that aggrevates people. What i dont like is people who dont see past the PR machine, and judge teh horse on its merits.
Horses like One Man, Barton, and others are continually given hero status despite their failings.
hawk Wing has been crucified for one poor run yesterday( BC apart), as if that was all the horse could achieve. He is a group 1 winner at 3 ages, he finished second in 2 classics, 12 lengths clear of the 3rd in the derby, he was beaten a snot in anotehr group 1. He is a genuine top class racehorse. One of the few that we see each year. It is unfortunate that he hasnt the consistency of Brigadier Gerard, but when right, he would give Cape Cross a stone and a half. (IMO)
Again, what price would you go if he were to meet DD in three weeks time. Anything over 5/2 would be snapped up.
Some used time to say that Cape Cross produced a better performance than HW in the lockinge and was therefore a better horse, which I will still say is rubbish.
I think it is so easy to decry Hawk Wing on the hype of last year, everyone knows he was disapointing, but the 3/1 quote was insulting to the horse, and i think that HW justified the home hype with the performance at Newbury. It showed what he is capable of in public. Had he repeated the thrashing of tillerman that he did at newbury yesterday, of course we would be reading a different story. I like when the hype comes to fruition. I dont tend to jump on badwagons but I hate those who beacuse of hype automatically go against a horse.
Galileo was brilliant at the derby and beat a proper horse in FL in teh KG. His runs over 10f have relegated his reputation. Dancing Brave – to the majority of analysts the best middle distance horse that we have seen in the last 20 years or so – beat shadari by an all out length in the KG, was beaten in the derby. Shergar was hammered before his three year old career was ended. Even holes can be picked in Nijinsky’s form. HAwk wing never proven himself to be mentioned with these horses, he hasnt the consistency, but his performance at Newbury should be respected
he was still 12l clear of Moon ballad over 12f last year, and was only beaten by stablemates in teh classics. Very few horses can be so good yet so infuriating over both distances.
Agian, I would take 3/1 about the horse in any race between 1m and 1.5m. He is simply too talented to be that price. Whether he produces is of course in the lap of the gods.
I am disappointed in HW performance in teh Queen Anne. However, judging his seventh behind the likes of Gateman as a true reflection of the horses form is probably less accurate than using his lockinge demolition.
Using yesterdays race is akin to saying that Carvills Hill wasnt as good as Toby Tobias and that Arazi was not as good as Brief Truce and Zaahi among others.
I dont know if i am on your list of those who have kept quiet after supporting teh horse after the lockinge, but if you read my posts I have reiterated a number of times that it was a special performance one that i hoped but wasnt sure he could repeat. I never compared him to BG, but a couple of times to Arazi and Carvills Hill. I think that was the tone of many of teh Hawk wing supporters on here. Does one run make him a champion a la brigadier gerard, probably not, but his run in the lockinge should be recognised as a special run. AS i said as part of those threads, it is very easy to be wise after the event of hypes being knocked. Most racing people like to recognise a good horse, some others loathe it, adn love to see a good horse lose. Id guess pretty much the same reaction would be here if he had won by a couple of lengths.
On his failiings last year, he finished second in two classics, over 1m and 1m4f, two other group ones, won an eclipse. He’s not all bad. Anyone one of those perfomances would have put him bang there yesterday.
If the race was run tomorrow, with both horses well. I dont think lameness was what beat him yesterday, but i would be reluctant to price the horse at more than 3/1.
He has something wrong with him that makes it madness to play big at odds on, but he has shown the talent that he has at Newbury and it would be folly to dismiss his chances in any one off race, even against the same field as yesterdays. Ian Bartlett was right in is immediate summation after the lockings when he said to retire him. But i definitely satnd behind what I said at the time – that the lockinge was one of the best performances that Ive seen on a racecourse. The form itself took a knock yesterday with WOW, but I stand behind that. <br>
