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“I feel like a villain, but when I saw it wasn’t a grey nose coming towards me I kept going.” Quite the admission from Richard Kingscote, suggesting that he might not have tried to win in other circumstances.
The press is making a fuss about a Tory party insider betting £100 on a July election date. They’re suggesting it’s illegal. However, I don’t think using inside info for betting is illegal in horse racing so I don’t see why politics would be different. Having looked at the legislation, cheating is illegal but cheating seems to be related to misleading people rather than using inside info. So I doubt we’ll see any prosecution.
But maybe I’ve misunderstood?
For me the missing link in most descriptions of form study is relating ratings to win probabilities. I use a rule of thumb that a horse with a rating 5 pounds above another will beat it two thirds of the time, other things being equal. So for example if 9 horses are rated 125,120,120,120,120,120,120,120,120 the win probabilities would be 20% for the 125 and 10% for the eight others.
I much appreciate your return to tipping. There are now full bellies again in the Kasparov household.
I also appreciate your shopping around to indicate best prices. However, it might be simpler to use Betfair prices less 2% commission as I doubt whether any of us can get meaningful sums on with Bet365. Bet365 often appears best price but anyone trying to take advantage gets restricted pretty fast in my experience.Ginger Have you given up betting? I thought it was how you made a living. I can understand why you wouldn’t want to put all your bets up here, but I didn’t think you had stopped altogether.
Brian had a day off today but Harry didn’t find any winners at Huntingdon. Both riders contest at Southwell tomorrow with Harry having better chances based on current odds. Harry is the rightful favourite now, having narrowed the gap at Aintree. I expect he will overtake Brian shortly after Cheltenham. If not, I expect the Skeltons to keep placing horses with good odds at the Midland and southern tracks until he gets ahead.
Cloth Cap giving bette rodds on smarkets than Betfair at present. Place odds 4.1 (4 places) look good versus 8.2 win odds. Seems to be the usual GN anomaly caused by people arbing the Bet365 offer.
Interestingly both the official ratings and the Timeform ratings (available on the free race pass today) show horses all of very similar ability for this race.So not easy to work out how to bet. I think Timeform could make mroe effort to help punters by adjusting the ratings for factors like going and trip. e.g. if a horse doesn’t like the ground or it isn’t its best distance they could subtract a few pounds. Or maybe they could offer a run to form probability. Otherwise the punter has to do a lot of work just to get started. Of course I do realise the more info TF provide the harder it is to find an edge, but it is their job to provide the info.
Excellent news, but could you maybe do something about geting rid of the Cliffs of Moher stuff on the front page? It gives a false impression of stagnation.
I’ve been missing you. I know you are busy with other stuff but my source of lunch money has dried up so I have had to find free value tips elsewhere. Fortunately the helpful punter has stepped in: thehelpfulpunter.com. His/her tips have kept the wolf from the door and all is well in the Kasparov household. He/she seems to have a similar style to yours so worth looking up.
I’ve noticed some big price swings in your horses. I didn’t back Uppertown Prince as he was odds on this morning but his SP was back to 5/4. Conversely Ellens Way went out to over 2/1, but won off an SP of evens.
I think in thin morning markets on minor races these things happen, but maybe best to take advantage rather than assume the market knows something we don’t.
he was matched on Betfair at 7.8 so 6.8/1 at around 9am. I got 7.4 on another exchange.
Only Orsenfoolsies is out to 6/1. Strange. Timeform like him and he is in form with conditions to suit.
I see Bleu et Rouge will appear in the last race at Ascot on Saturday. Might be worth another go but not sure why he flopped at Fairyhouse.
“Bleu Et Rouge looks a live contender for champion trainer Willie Mullins in the Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.
The JP McManus-owned grey was campaigned over fences last term but finished down the field on his return to action in a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse.
“Bleu Et Rouge was a bit disappointing on his first run back, but hopefully he will have come on for the run,” said McManus’s racing manager Frank Berry.
“Willie’s been happy with him at home since.””
