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A bit surprised David Bass is riding Top Notch. I would have thought if he’s the best horse then Nico or Barry would be riding him but maybe it’s something to do with who gets on best with each horse.
Court Minstrel appears to be the value at 10/1 in the 2.40 at Ascot and Timeform like him so a bit surprised he’s not selected at least for a saver. Younger than Rock on Ruby and advantaged at the weights, and in form. Ground conditions are against him but maybe with the cold weather the surface might be a bit firmer than expected.
I recall Treve had an arthritic back last year. This didn’t stop her winning and doesn’t seem to be an issue now, but I am surprised it hasn’t been mentioned in pre-race discussion. Anyway I think the Treve odds are too short given it’s a large field and a rough race sometimes.
It’s has fairly basic functionality but it’s ok for straightforward win and place punting.
I see WH are offering 10/3 against Oriental Fox without both the favourites in the 17.35. This may be of interest if it’s a 3 horse race.
A witty and interesting observation, but it’s pretty clear that that Chester attendance was higher on Fri than Thu which in turn was higher than on Wed. By itself this may indicate that some attendees are time-constrained and prefer to take Fri off for a long weekend. Also if you look at the difference between the Nottingham attendance on that Fri and the following Sat you can see a big jump. Of course there may be a tendency to put better races on the Sat but the only rationale for doing so would be to take advantage of the larger potential crowd then.
Nobody seems to mind Test matches, Irish racing, Wimbledon finals, golf final rounds, F1 races being on a Sunday so I find it a bit odd that there isn’t more British Sunday racing. And the evidence is people seem to want it. Salisbury on Sunday did better than Sat and that did better than midweek this May.
I think the logic is surely to move some of the Saturday fixtures to Sunday. That way the Saturday congestion is reduced and punters who work during the week have more opportunity to turn up.
I have always been mystified by the appeal of midweek daytime racing. You don’t see Premier League football very often on midweek afternoons for the obvious reason that a lot of fans are working.
Of course professional punters. the unemployed and retired, owners and trainers plus a few people who take a day off work will go to midweek racing but it’s hard to see it attracting big crowds, except for big events like Ascot.
Drag is more important I think in sprints, and less important in steeplechases, especially as it increases with the square of the speed. I think Ginge is right that wind speed is important e.g. a 30mph headwind effectively means horses are running at roughly the equivalent of 60mph in still air so drafting is critical.
I have noticed Ryan Moore occasionally refers to getting a tow and I think he means it literally rather than metaphorically.
But as Ginge says other factors are also important and I’m not sure how drag ranks against draw, pace, need to expend energy overtaking etc.
Point 1 depends on the cutaway surely, as it was made by Ryan as a direct comment on the new configuration. Points 2,3 and 4 apply to the cutaway because in the previous arrangement with the stalls in the middle it took more effort to get to the rail so the draw advantage wasn’t there.
I suppose it all boils down to whether you think running near a rail is an advantage on a straight track.I would say so but maybe there is evidence that can settle the issue.
4 reasons:
1. Ryan Moore said before the race in his Betfair column the draw was probably an advantage and I think he knows what he is talking about
2. Racing on the rail rather than the middle of the track is an advantage as it helps you go in a straight line and it is easier for horses in front of you to run straight so you can slipstream easily
3. Gleneagles was drawn close to the rail so didn’t have to waste distance getting close to it
4. If you assume there is no draw advantage you have to explain why horses run in groups rather than in straight lines from stall to finish. It was obvious there would be a rails group and being on the rail makes it easy to join that group.I think on balance the cut away is a good thing but I agree with Ryan Moore that it gives an advantage to horses drawn close to the rail. The two Guineas winners both benefited from both Ryan’s riding (especially his judgement of pace) and the draw. How could they possibly have lost?
Basically if you are drawn near the rail you can run along it in a straight line, tuck in and get some slipstream, and have no fear of being boxed in at the finish.
Since Faugheen was 1/6 to win the race, 1/2 to beat Arctic Fire is a fantastic bet. Well done for finding it.
Don’t forget the SP system also affects anyone betting at best odds guarantee ie nearly everyone. If you backed STFD at 8-1 in the morning you might have got 9-1 under BOG if the system wasn’t bent.
Betfair SP on Shutthefrontdoor was pretty amazing at 28. Maybe everyone was trying to lay at SP in anticipation of a shortening at the end. Anyway it has put me off laying at SP.
I notice Uxizandre got a rating of 159 – same as Coneygree. Assuming as seems likely that both showed their true best form at the festival does that mean they are of roughly equal standard on best form (adjusted for optimal distance). Or is some adjustment required to make a like-for-like comparison?
I had in my mind that Champagne Fever would set the pace with DB maybe shadowing him, and then we would have SdeG a few lengths back with SS shadowing him. If the horses all run to best form (which I admit is most unlikely) then DB will catch CF, SdeG will catch DB and finally SS will take the lead after the last fence. But the existence of these other front runners, ST and SE, confuses the picture. In particular I think it’s a negative for CF who apparently runs best at the front. It will be interesting to see how Ruby rides him.
